Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 210852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AREAS OF FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH INTO A
REGION THAT HAS EXPERIENCED RADATIONAL COOLING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT (285-290K) MAY YIELD AREAS
OF DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 40S TODAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND DEEP
LIFT/MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN A 15-30% LIGHT RAIN CHANCE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANY RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN
0.10 INCH. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S VIA NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND STEEP SURFACE-750 MB LAPSE RATES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION VIA BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY
THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS WITH
A LESS AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT
IS PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
A 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN THAT AREA ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO ABOVE SEASONAL BY THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. SOUTH
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH WILL KEE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIFR CEILINGS
QUICKLY EXPANDING NORTH OVER WESTERN OK. FEEL THAT AS THIS AREA OF
LOWER CIGS EXPANDS EAST...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY 09Z.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 COULD SEE SOME
LIFR CEILINGS. WITH SURFACE WINDS STAYING IN THE 08-11KT
RANGE...WOULD BE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG IF WE WERE
ADVECTING RICH DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ONLY LOOK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT 2-4SM BR AND IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF SUN AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCHANGED.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  41  52  32 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      46  40  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
NEWTON          45  41  51  30 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        46  42  52  32 /  10  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  43  52  34 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         47  36  49  28 /   0  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      46  36  50  28 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          46  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       45  39  51  30 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  44  53  36 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20
IOLA            47  43  51  34 /  10  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    47  43  52  34 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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