000
FXUS63 KICT 262020
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
320 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Tonight-Saturday:

Potential for high impact storms is main focus. Three different
scenerios possible. First is GFS/NAM camp focusing convection
across Central KS tonight and then Saturday afternoon development
in Southeast KS on the surface front. Second is all HRRR runs
today and 0000 UTC ECMWF which have a more southern track with
Western KS storms rolling east overnight into area around
daybreak and then remnant MCV/MCS dropping into Central KS from
Western Nebraska. The HRRR/ECMWF solution would result in a much
earlier severe weather threat on Saturday that would include
entire area along/south of highway 400. This early threat would
be mainly wind, with potential to go upscale during the morning as
storms move into increasingly moist airmass. Northern outflow
would impact storms moving south from Nebraska. If the NAM/GFS
scenerio plays out, threat would more likely include supercells
with storms going up on front. Finally, the 1200 UTC ECMWF has a
slightly different take, with Western KS storms dissipating very
late tonight about the time they reach ICT. The Western Nebraska
storms remain strong-severe overnight diving southeast across the
forecast area early in the day and into SW MO in the afternoon.
This scenerio is not that far fetched either given 1200 UTC upper
air plot showing axis of higher 850MB dewpoint from TOP to LZK.
The main threat from this would be high winds. At this point, have
leaned official forecast toward the HRRR/ECMWF solution, although
hedging with slightly higher pops in Central KS to account for
storms moving in from Nebraska. Plan to broadbrush the hazardous
weather outlook to account for the various scenerios. -Howerton

Sunday-Monday:
Sunday will feature mild temperatures and dry weather as high
pressure builds over the area. Another weak front moves into the
area Monday afternoon. Anticipate airmass will be too dry for
storms, but latest GFS/ECMWF dribble out spotty patches of a
hundredth or two of QPF Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Broad trough across the Central US and baroclinic zone in the
plains spells trouble for forecasters. Timing of weak ripples in
northwest flow and location of boundary is notoriously difficult.
Storms likely over the high plains tracking southeast during the
night and not a whole lot of consistency with these smaller scale
features. Precipitation chances will likely increase through time
as low level moisture increases. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Main aviation concerns will be fog potential late tonight along
with storm chances.

Winds are expected to come around to the east and southeast today
into the evening hours, allowing good moisture to roll back to the
west. Storms are expected to develop late this afternoon over
eastern CO and roll east overnight, potentially reaching central
KS after 06z. So will carry some VCTS for KRSL-KGBD-KSLN late
tonight. Did insert some light fog for a few sites across southern
KS but confidence is low in this panning out. Low level moisture
profiles look favorable, but mid clouds may limit radiation late.
So did not want to go anything less than 5sm at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  83  58  80 /  20  20  10   0
Hutchinson      63  81  56  79 /  20  20  10   0
Newton          63  81  56  78 /  20  20  10   0
ElDorado        64  83  58  79 /  20  30  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  87  59  80 /  20  30  20   0
Russell         61  75  53  78 /  30  40  10   0
Great Bend      61  77  53  78 /  30  30  10   0
Salina          61  79  56  80 /  20  30  10   0
McPherson       63  80  55  78 /  20  20  10   0
Coffeyville     66  87  61  79 /  10  50  40  10
Chanute         65  84  60  79 /  10  50  30  10
Iola            64  83  59  79 /  10  50  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    66  86  61  79 /  10  50  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL