Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 110807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

DURING THE NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE TROF CURVED FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL NM...RESULTING IN A LIGHT SE FLOW ACROSS THE KS
NEIGHBORHOOD. A SMALL AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALMOST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL OK BORDER. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAD ENABLED TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NIGHBORHOOD TODAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER...THEREBY ENABLING LOWER-DECK FLOW
TO BECOME DUE SOUTH & SLIGHTLY INCREASE. ON SAT A POSTIVELY-TILTED MID
LEVEL TROF THAT SHOULD SWEEP FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN ONTARIO WITH
A "LEAD" MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURVING FROM WISCONSIN TO SW NEBRASKA WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER FRI NIGHT. WITH THE
"LEAD" SHORTWAVE SHEARING AS IT APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER. THIS WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
N OF KICT COUNTRY OVER NEBRASKA UNTIL SAT NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD TURN UP
THE FURNACE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY WITH HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 90S.

SAT NIGHT-SUN:
A 2ND & SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO VENTURE SE
ACROSS NEBRASKA SAT AFTERNOON & NIGHT. THE CHARACTER MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KICK THE COLD FRONT SE TOWARD & PERHAPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS ON
SUN. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD VERY SLOWLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE
MANNER ACROSS CENTRAL KS BUT THE FEEBLE MID-UPPER SUPPORT DICTATES ONLY
20-30% ASSIGNMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS LATE SAT NIGHT & SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE INTENSE CYCLONE POSITIONED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE E/SE TOWARD
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER & EXTEND SW ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS & VICINITY ON
MON WITH THE FRONT LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE RED RIVER MON NIGHT & THEN
TO S TX ON TUE. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO VERY NICE WEATHER FOR REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TUE & WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TUE
NIGHT & WED NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING S/SE INTO KS ANY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SHIFT S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER...FEEL THAT WEAK MID AND
UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. LEE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL KS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  74  97  73 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74  96  74 /  10   0   0  20
NEWTON          94  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        93  73  95  71 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  98  72 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         97  75  96  71 /  10   0   0  30
GREAT BEND      95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  30
SALINA          98  75  98  72 /  10   0   0  30
MCPHERSON       95  74  96  73 /  10   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  71 100  71 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         93  72  98  71 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            93  72  97  71 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    93  71  98  72 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES






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