Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260443
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Main challenge tonight will be potential for reduced visibilities
in fog across central Kansas. Latest guidance and local fog
procedure would suggest a combination of stratus build-down and
radiational fog development on the back edge of the moist cyclonic
flow exiting the area. This will be collocated near the transient
surface ridge/light wind axis and also where some of the higher
rainfall occurred in the past 24 hours. So have inserted areas of
fog generally along/west of the Flint Hills after midnight. Some
locally dense fog is possible which could necessitate a headline
if confidence increases during the evening. Otherwise, the main
focus will be with the increasing rain/storm chances again late
Sunday through early Monday. The approaching upper trof will begin
to affect central Kansas by Sunday afternoon with numerous to
widespread rainfall from showers and embedded thunder by Sunday
evening/night. The latest track keeps the surface warm sector just
south across Oklahoma, though elevated instability across southern
Kansas through Sunday evening will be sufficient (800 to 1200
j/kg) with 40-45kts of cloud bearing shear, for a few strong to
marginally severe storms. The additional rainfall will be welcome
for areas that missed out of late, though some localized heavy
rainfall is also possible. Somewhat similar to today, Monday will
see some rain chances lingering across the Flint Hills/southeast
Kansas into the afternoon, though trending dry for all areas late
Monday through much of Tuesday. Precip chances look to return by
Tuesday night as the next closed low approaches.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The closed upper low over the southwest CONUS will migrate slowly
eastward across the central/southern Plains through the mid-week
periods. There remains some variance in the medium range on the
its evolution/movement which will have ramifications on precip
chances and amounts across the forecast area. For now will
maintain relatively high PoPs with highest confidence across the
southern portion of the area. Another upper trof is progged to dig
south along the West coast into the southwest CONUS late next
week.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Main aviation issues remain fog and low clouds through Sun
morning.

MVFR cigs with pockets of IFR clouds have remained planted over
areas along and east of I-135 this evening. Some of this has
actually started to work back to the west. These cigs are expected
to hold strong overnight and may start to lower some, with
widespread IFR levels a good bet by 09z. Still feel the best fog
potential will be along our western flank, due to better upslope
flow along with slightly higher elevation. However, with stratus
build down still a possibility, can`t rule out some lower
visibilities over all areas after 09z. By 15z Sun, we should
start to see things improve to above IFR levels. Chances for
scattered showers and storms will increase late Sun afternoon into
the evening hours as our next fast moving wave moves across the
southern Plains. Best chances for severe storms look to be south
into Oklahoma.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Periodic episodes for widespread significant rainfall can be
expected over the next seven days. Even the rain-free days are
only expected to see a modest wind and humidity combo, which
will keep the grassland fire danger below the more critical
values, generally in the moderate to high category.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  69  47  62 /   0  30  80  30
Hutchinson      37  66  44  61 /   0  40  80  20
Newton          38  66  45  60 /  10  30  80  30
ElDorado        40  68  47  61 /  10  30  80  30
Winfield-KWLD   39  71  49  63 /   0  30  80  20
Russell         35  63  40  62 /   0  50  70  10
Great Bend      35  64  41  62 /   0  60  80  10
Salina          37  65  44  62 /  10  30  80  20
McPherson       36  65  44  61 /  10  40  80  30
Coffeyville     42  72  52  63 /  20  20  80  30
Chanute         42  69  50  61 /  20  10  90  40
Iola            43  67  50  60 /  20  10  90  50
Parsons-KPPF    42  70  51  62 /  20  20  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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