Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 231450
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE FROM PARCELS LIFTED FROM 800-700MB...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ROLL
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS. EVEN THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...SEE NO REASON WHY IT
WON`T HOLD TOGETHER INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NE MAY ALSO HOLD TOGETHER AND GET INTO
CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON...AS IT ROLLS SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

ADK

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200 UTC-15 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL
HAS MATERIALIZED. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT EAST
FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOS...MOST LIKELY AT KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200-1500 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED AT KRSL. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MOST LIKELY AT
KCNU. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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