Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 212100
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
300 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Areas of dense fog have dissipated from central Kansas counties
by early afternoon, though clouds are expected hover over most of
the area throughout the remainder of the day ahead of an
impressive shortwave disturbance that is making its way toward
western Kansas this evening.

At the surface, the tightly wound upper level shortwave will push a
surface low ahead across south central Kansas this evening and off
into northeast Kansas by early Monday. Return flow from the north
and northeast combined with sufficient lift will bring chances of
light rain beginning this afternoon and early evening across
central, south central, and eventually southeast Kansas. Only very
light accumulation of rain is expected, if at all. There is a slight
chance that far southeast Kansas could see a couple of
thunderstorms. With model soundings showing a fairly marginal CAPE
profile, not expecting this to be of major concern for our area,
though some rumbles of thunder are certainly possible.

The bigger story will be the transition of precip from light rain
over to snow in Central Kansas late this evening and into the day
on Monday. It looks like most of the snow will generally stay
along and north of US-56, though small amounts of snow cannot be
ruled out a little further into south central Kansas. The heaviest
accumulations will be in central Kansas (especially Russell and
Lincoln counties) where widespread accumulations of around 1 inch
with locally higher amounts of around 2 inches are possible. The
bulk of snow will stay north and west of the CWA.

An added complication with this system is the very tight pressure
gradient that will increase winds speeds considerably on Monday.
Expect winds out of the northeast to be strong and gusty, with
sustained speeds easily exceeding advisory criteria (30mph) and
gusts reaching into the 40s. This will blow any snow falling or on
the ground, which could reduce visibilities and affect travel
conditions even further in central Kansas, particularly along the I-
70 corridor. Given this, the previously issued winter weather
advisory has been expanded to include Barton, Ellsworth, and Saline
counties in addition to Russell and Lincoln. Additionally, a wind
advisory has been issued for most of the day on Monday beginning at
3am for western CWA counties and expanding further east to cover
all of south central KS beginning at 6am.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

In the wake of the exiting disturbance on Tuesday, high pressure
is expected to begin building into the area from the northwest
with an upper ridge pattern taking shape over the western CONUS. A
return to a southerly flow regime will mean fairly quiet weather
and another gradual warming trend from Tuesday through the end of
the work week. Winds will pick back up on Thursday ahead of
another round of precip chances heading into Friday night and
Saturday. As of now, it appears most precip will fall as rain with
this system, but a few areas of snow mixed in cannot be ruled out
with temperatures dropping just below the freezing mark. Certainly
not expecting any major impacts at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A stalled frontal boundary was bisecting central KS today with
widespread LIFR cigs and visibilities through the early afternoon
hours along and west of the boundary. Clouds on the western
periphery of the boundary were showing some signs of mixing out
while the westward progression remains uncertain. As a potent
mid/upper trough over the Rockies emerges over the Central Plains
tonight, widespread precipitation will develop across much of
western and northern Kansas impacting our central KS TAFs. The
snow may begin to impact the KRSL-KGBD areas by around midnight
while showing up in the KSLN area towards sunrise. We may see a
brief wintry mix before precipitation changes to all snow. This
will likely result in widespread reduced flight categories with
strong northwest winds expected to develop in the wake of the
system on Monday. We should see improving conditions as we move
through the day on Monday although strong northwest winds of 30 to
35 knots with gusts over 45 knots will be common.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Very high grassland fire danger is expected across nearly all of
the area on Monday with strong gusty winds and cured grasses. As
winds pick back up on Thursday and Friday, very high grassland
danger will return to most central, south central, and southeast
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    34  42  25  48 /  20  30   0   0
Hutchinson      32  42  23  46 /  50  50   0   0
Newton          33  39  23  45 /  30  50  10   0
ElDorado        34  40  25  46 /  20  40  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   36  44  25  49 /  10  20   0   0
Russell         30  39  21  44 /  90  80   0   0
Great Bend      30  41  21  46 /  80  70   0   0
Salina          31  40  23  44 /  70  80  10   0
McPherson       31  40  22  45 /  60  70  10   0
Coffeyville     37  43  28  50 /  20  20  10   0
Chanute         36  41  26  46 /  20  30  10   0
Iola            36  41  26  45 /  20  30  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    37  42  27  48 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ051>053-068-
069-083-092-093.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
Monday for KSZ032-033-047>049.

Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ050-067-082-
091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...TAV


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