Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 270145
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
845 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Headline:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #371 is cancelled for Russell, Barton,
Lincoln, Ellsworth & Rice Counties.

A cluster of strong thunderstorms continues to surge southeast at
40 mph through Harvey, Butler, Chase & Elk Counties. The
thunderstorms are occurring along & just north of a cold front
that extends from central MO, through south-central KS, to
southeast CO. Convection has been further sustained by a subtle
mid-upper shortwave that continues to sprint SE across eastern KS.
With airmass greatly stabilizing across central KS Severe
Thunderstorm watch #371 was cancelled for all 5 affected counties
in central KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough extending
from the western Great Lakes into the mid Mississippi Valley. An
impulse is diving across western IA/northern MO and developing
storms over central MO. Looks to be a weak surface front/trough
laid out across southern Nebraska with a few storms developing
along this feature over south central/sw Nebraska.

Storms over southern Nebraska should continue tracking south and
with minimal capping, should make it into northern KS but have
low confidence on how far south they will make it. NW flow aloft
is providing great directional shear which will result in large
hail being the main threat for any storms this evening. Feel there
is also a chance for a few elevated showers and storms after 09z
for our western flank where a decent mid level baroclinic zone
will be situated. Even though elevated instability is not that
great, given the amount of directional shear, can`t rule out some
large hail if storms can develop.

Return flow and lee troughing will strengthen during the day Tue
as shortwave energy moves from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Rockies. This will lift the front and better storm
chances to the north of the forecast area. Should be a fairly
large MCS tracking out of the central/northern Plains Tue night
and into the central Mississippi Valley. Some of this activity may
try and build back into northeast KS, but with decent elevated
capping in place, confidence in how far west this makes it is very
low.

Pattern will remain active across the Plains Wed as the front gets
pushed south along with the better mid and upper flow. Storms will
likely first develop along the front over IA/northern MO and build
sw into KS during the late afternoon and especially early evening
hours Wed. Convergence this far west along the front isn`t that
great, so not expecting widespread storms, but can`t rule out a
few strong to severe storms over central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Pattern will remain active for Thu into Fri as the surface
boundary lingers across the area. The exact location of this
feature will likely be determined by how overnight convection
each night affects its position. Large scale ascent will also be
on the increase Thu into Thu night as robust shortwave energy
tracks out of the northern Rockies and into the central Plains. So
once again expecting storms to develop Thu afternoon/early
evening along the front with activity developing into an MCS
overnight, with eastern KS/MO looking like the most likely areas
affected. Thu night MCS should push the front south, into northern
OK/far southern KS for Fri. This is where best storm chances will
be for Fri into Fri night.

Confidence in convective chances and location drops off
significantly for the weekend. However, tough to go completely
dry as mid/upper flow remains fairly strong with a low level
baroclinic zone still lingering around.

The good news with the pattern remaining active is that an upper
ridge never gets to take hold, which means temps will remain close
to or slightly below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

At issuance, a SVR TSRAGR was positioned on the east side of KSLN.
The cell was moving SE ~30kts. With no TSRA occurring upstream
have opted to assign "VCTS" to KSLN for first hour. With the TSRA
moving SE, the convection would pass very close to KCNU til ~03Z.
Isolated TSRA are possible this evening but extremely limited
coverage dictates leaving "VCTS" out of the remaining TAF sites.
Toward morning the concern shifts toward stratus ~1,000ft that may
impact KGBD & KRSL as moistening SE flow increases. Both terminals
should return to VFR status ~17Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  87  71  93 /  30  10  10  10
Hutchinson      62  88  72  94 /  30  10  10  20
Newton          62  86  71  92 /  50  10  20  20
ElDorado        62  85  70  90 /  50  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   64  87  71  92 /  40  10  10  10
Russell         62  89  71  95 /  20  10  20  10
Great Bend      62  89  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
Salina          62  89  72  96 /  40  10  30  20
McPherson       62  88  71  94 /  50  10  20  20
Coffeyville     61  86  70  90 /  70  10   0   0
Chanute         59  84  69  89 /  80  10  10  10
Iola            59  84  68  88 /  70  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    60  85  69  89 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS


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