000
FXUS63 KICT 170546
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SVR TSRA THAT WERE PROLIFIC GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL PRODUCERS OVER COWLEY
COUNTY HAVE DISSIPATED BUT HAVE ALSO UNLEASHED A W-NW MOVG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SUMNER & HARPER COUNTIES & TOWARD KICT. A CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED E OF THE OUTFLOW. ISOLD CELLS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE
SE CORNER OF KS AS WELL AS OVER EC KS. MID-LVL FLOW IS VERY WEAK & AS
SUCH FAVORS A RATHER CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE "PATTERN" FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. HAVE TEMPORARILY ASSIGNED 40-50% TSRA TO EXTREME SC-SE KS
WITH SHARP POP-GRADIENT N TOWARD KS TURNPIKE TIL 10 PM. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED TSRA PROBABILITIES FOR LATER THIS EVENING TO REFLECT ONSET OF
MCS THAT`LL SURGE SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...PRIMARILY SC KS. POP GAME
PLAN FROM MID-NGT TO 7 AM APPEARS ON TARGET. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A RATHER COMPLICATED SCENARIO IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS FROM NEAR KHUT EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST TOWARD NORTON KANSAS
AT 2 PM CDT. CU HAS DEVELOPED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECM RAP SHOWS MINIMAL CINH WITHIN AN
AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
SURGING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE DOWNSTREAM OF A PV ANOMALY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LATEST 12Z
SUITE OF MODEL DATA HAS SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS A BIT FURTHER WEST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS AREA REMAINS OVERTURNED FROM DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT/EARLY TODAY. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE STEERED TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT WHILE MERGING WITH THE ACTIVITY DRIFTING SOUTH OUT OF
NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER NO PLANS TO
REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
2-3 INCHES A FEW LOCATIONS.

MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITHIN A STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
ARRIVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOW IN THE 60S. -MCGUIRE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN
THIRD OF KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STAY PLANTED FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME
WITHOUT A BREAKDOWN IN THE FLOW PATTERN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WHEN A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. THUS ANY IMPACT TO THE AREA COULD ONLY BE CONSIDERED
PRELIMINARY AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE IN PLACE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 90 ONCE MORE. -JUANITA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH FROM THE WEST
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ONCE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  84 /  10  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      63  84  65  84 /  10  10  20  40
NEWTON          63  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  40
ELDORADO        63  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  84  66  85 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         61  84  64  83 /  20  10  30  50
GREAT BEND      62  84  64  84 /  20  10  30  50
SALINA          62  84  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       62  83  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     65  85  66  85 /  10  10   0  30
CHANUTE         63  84  65  84 /   0   0   0  30
IOLA            62  83  64  83 /   0   0   0  30
PARSONS-KPPF    64  84  65  84 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ071-072-095-096-
098>100.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ094.

&&

$$