Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 282011
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A MUCH WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN MN INTO FAR NW NEBRASKA WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST MON NIGHT AND WILL BE SITUATED
OVER NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z TUE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SHOULD INCREASE MON NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS WITH SOME OF THIS GETTING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUE. A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WEST OF I-135 BY TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
NUMEROUS STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTH. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
GIVEN INCREASING MID/UPPER WINDS AND MODEST INSTABILITY. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TRACK ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/JET MAX OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
KS/OK PANHANDLE BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND A SHARPENING COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
THUS HAS THE SURFACE FEATURES DISPLACED FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO
THE NAM. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...FEEL THAT THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAIN SEVERE
WX INGREDIENTS WILL BE 45-55KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON THU AND WILL BE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THU EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
SWINGING THE TROUGH EAST WITH THE GFS KEEPING PRECIP AROUND OVER
SE KS A FEW HOURS LONGER. WHICHEVER ONE VERIFIES...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THU NIGHT. THE AIRMASS TO
FOLLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE OF THE PACIFIC VARIETY AND
WILL THEREFORE NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. HIGHS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WHICH IS STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT NIGHT. SCATTERED LOW-MID CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  86  63  86 /  10   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      60  86  64  84 /  10  10  20  30
NEWTON          61  85  63  83 /  10   0  10  30
ELDORADO        62  85  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  85  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         60  85  63  81 /  10  10  50  30
GREAT BEND      59  85  63  83 /  10  10  50  30
SALINA          59  85  64  83 /  10  10  30  40
MCPHERSON       60  85  64  84 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  84  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            60  84  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  84  61  83 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.