Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281940
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

REGIONAL 88D`S SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MCV TRACKING OVER EXTREME SE
KS/SW MO WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...A MORE SYNOPTIC IMPULSE IS LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO. AT THE SURFACE...OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
PUSHED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN OK WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY
ALLOWING FOR RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END OVER SE KS SHORTLY AS THE MCV
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
DEVELOP OUT OVER FAR EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND THAT THERE MAYBE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA MAYBE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
OBVIOUSLY WITH GROUNDS VERY SATURATED...FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
WITH THIS FRONT COMPARED TO THE NAM WITH THE GFS GETTING SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. WITH THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING
AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED CAPPING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLACE THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRI
ALONG AND SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE. BY SAT MORNING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH NEEDED
DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY SUN AFTERNOON...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER THE
OZARK REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS UPPER
RIDGING FINALLY SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THEN DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU. WHILE SOME STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KS...THE BETTER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD START THE WORK WEEK OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS
THEY GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MID WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

MCV OVER NORTHEAST OK RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SE KS WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST AND SHOULD
EXIT SE KS BY 20Z. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OUT
OVER FAR WESTERN KS. THESE STORMS WILL WORK EAST AND SHOULD AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THEY WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME ACTIVITY. SHOULD ALSO SEE LOWER
CEILING DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH MVFR LEVELS
AT MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  78  61  70 /  50  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      64  78  59  69 /  50  60  50  20
NEWTON          64  76  59  68 /  50  60  60  20
ELDORADO        66  77  61  70 /  60  60  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  79  62  71 /  50  60  60  30
RUSSELL         60  78  55  69 /  60  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      61  78  56  69 /  60  50  40  10
SALINA          64  78  58  69 /  50  50  50  10
MCPHERSON       63  77  58  68 /  50  60  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  64  72 /  50  60  70  40
CHANUTE         67  78  64  72 /  50  60  70  40
IOLA            66  78  63  71 /  50  60  70  40
PARSONS-KPPF    67  78  64  72 /  50  60  70  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$


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