843
FXUS63 KICT 171722
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Relatively quiet weather anticipated as surface ridge moves east on
Tuesday with an increase in return flow. Looks more likely that
weak surface cold front will move into Central KS Wednesday night
and then retreat as a warm front on Thursday. Lack of significant
moisture should preclude precipitation. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Much focus was directed to this period with several initialization
issues to adjust per consensus. Increasing surface pressure
gradient and mixing will support brisk south winds by Friday and
into Saturday, faster than the notoriously low biased
initialization grids in this scenario. The stronger winds also
support warmer lows Friday night, albeit with one caveat in
Southeast KS. In Southeast KS, models continue to support low
probabilities of elevated precipitation in warm air advection
pattern late Friday night. If this occurs, given surface
dewpoints, temperatures could easily wet bulb below initialization
grids for lows. However precipitation appears unlikely in western
sections and adjusted temperatures up accordingly. Even with
adjustments, minimums could easily be even warmer, potentially in
the upper 60s, per verification in this pattern. Timing of the
frontal passage on Saturday remains fairly consistent with GFS
still running about 6 hours faster than the ECMWF. This will play
into maximum temperatures on Saturday. If slower ECMWF verifies,
this could push temperatures several degrees warmer across south
central KS on Saturday with southwest low level flow just ahead
of the front. Clearing moves in quickly on Sunday. Latest ECMWF
run has trended away from strong closed low and precipitation
chances have dwindled for Sunday and Monday. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Aviation concern will be some mild wind shear later tonight.

Water vapor imagery shows a compact upper impulse tracking across
eastern WY/western Nebraska. This feature will continue tracking
off to the southeast this evening. Airmass will remain too dry for
this feature to produce any clouds or precip. Lee troughing is
expected to remain in place which will keep south/sw winds in
place through the next 24 hours. May see some wind shear after 06z
as winds just off the surface gust to around 35kts over mainly
south central KS. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will
remain in place through this taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      75  49  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          73  49  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        73  50  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   74  50  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         78  48  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      77  47  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          76  50  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       75  49  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     72  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         71  47  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            71  47  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  47  75  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL