426
FXUS63 KICT 101958
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
258 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this evening into tonight
  across central Kansas. A few strong to severe storms are
  possible, with strong winds being the primary threat.

- Rain chances continue Friday through middle of next week.

- Warm Friday, cooler this weekend, then a warming trend to
  begin the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates two shortwaves
situated over the CONUS, with one exiting the Great Lakes region
and another slowly ejecting over the Central Rockies. The
latter of these will bring a surface trough through the area
later today as upper forcing shifts eastward. This boundary is
expected per short- term guidance to touch off showers and
thunderstorms as it moves through Nebraska and portions of
northwest Kansas this afternoon. Still thinking this activity
will have the potential for large hail initially, though given
the predominantly-linear nature of developing storms, the
primary hazard should quickly transition to strong winds.
Central Kansas will see the best chances for thunderstorms as
areas mainly east of I-135 are likely to have capping issues due
to warm mid-level temperatures. As such, have decided to keep
the best PoPs primarily along/west of I-135 and along/north of
US-56 for tonight.

Chances for showers and storms look to return to the area Friday
afternoon into early Saturday morning as a cold front moves through
the state. Ample instability/DCAPE alongside marginal shear will
continue to support damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Can`t
rule out a few quarter sized hailstones with the strongest storms
early on, but wind looks to be the primary threat especially during
the evening hours.

Looking ahead to the weekend and beyond, a stalled-out frontal zone
will provide continued rain chances in southern Kansas through
Sunday. The next opportunity for showers and storms will return
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as another cold front moves through
the region.

Regarding temperatures, highs areawide will reach the low to middle
90s Friday afternoon out ahead of the aforementioned cold front.
Following its passage, this boundary will result in cooler highs
Saturday through Sunday (middle to upper 80s) before a return to
near-normal highs to start the work week (near 90). The second cold
front to move through the area on Tuesday will bring mid-week
high temperatures back down to the middle 80s through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the end of the
period. Primary concern through the daylight hours will be breezy
south winds throughout the day, with gusts up to 30 kts possible in
central KS. These will weaken overnight as a boundary moves through
the area. Following its passage, winds will develop more of a
westerly component through the mid-morning hours on Friday.

Models continue to hint at thunderstorms developing across northwest
KS and making their way east. There remains some uncertainty
regarding just how far east these will make it (as well as their
southward extent), so it was decided to keep PROB30s at RSL, SLN,
and GBD and leave thunderstorm mentions out of south central and
southeast KS terminals. Stay tuned to later forecast cycles as new
model data and radar trends become available.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JWK