000
FXUS63 KICT 141135
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

A shortwave trough moving across the Northern Plains has resulted in
ongoing deep moist convection across south central Nebraska early
this morning. This activity may drift south into northwest & north
central KS early in the period. Convective debris may linger through
at least a portion of the day limiting insolation and possibly
impacting temperatures. However, rising heights and increasing
thickness suggests that highs will climb into the upper 80s/around
90 for many locations.

Another subtle shortwave trough approaching from the west may bring
increasing chances for deep moist convection to the area tonight.
The GFS and ECMWF are more favorable when compared to the NAM with
moisture transport/LLJ developing across south central/southeast KS
late tonight.

Tue-Wed...Mid/upper flow is progged to transition to the southwest
across the central Conus on Tue and maintained low pops across much
of the area. Better chances for deep moist convection should arrive
on Wed when a more robust mid/upper trough emerges from the central
Rockies. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the period
with highs in the upper 80s/around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the
area on Thu-Fri but maintained low pops across much of the area into
the weekend. Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated through
the period with highs in the upper 80s/around 90 with lows in the
mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Low level moisture streaming back to the north, has led to
widespread stratus clouds and IFR/LIFR cigs for most locations east-
southeast of highway 50. Also seeing some IFR vsbys over SE KS where
stratus builddown has led some fog formation, with MVFR vsbys
located elsewhere underneath the stratus. Expect this stratus deck
to slowly mix out for the morning hours, with some erosion on the
edges, before it lifts rapidly to the NE.  So will go with IFR/LIFR
for a few hours this morning and some tempo groups for the LIFR cigs
for most locations except KRSL and KGBD.

Expect sfc winds from the south today with increasing mid level
moisture this evening and tonight, as warm advection increases in
the mid layers.  Expect some MVFR cigs to return to most of southern
KS tonight. Think some warm advection SHRA/TSRA will develop late
tonight, but will hold off mentioning it until forecasting of
location is better defined.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    87  71  90  73 /  20  40  20  30
Hutchinson      88  70  89  71 /  20  30  20  40
Newton          87  70  88  71 /  10  40  20  40
ElDorado        87  70  87  72 /  20  40  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   87  72  90  74 /  20  50  30  30
Russell         90  69  91  69 /  10  30  20  50
Great Bend      90  69  90  69 /  10  30  20  50
Salina          91  69  90  72 /  10  30  30  50
McPherson       89  70  89  71 /  10  30  20  40
Coffeyville     86  71  88  74 /  10  50  40  20
Chanute         86  70  86  74 /  10  40  40  30
Iola            86  70  86  73 /  10  40  40  30
Parsons-KPPF    86  71  87  75 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham