000
FXUS63 KICT 311720
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAINFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...CONTINUES TO DROP SE INTO SRN OK. STILL LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...UP INTO SE KS.
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN KS FOR THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW SOME 850H
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME SE KS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE. THINK INCREASING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL PUSH ANY
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A VERY PLEASANT END OF JULY DAY...AS
NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND....AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NW
FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS...EXPECT A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR TUE AND
ACROSS KS ON WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS MOST OF KS FOR WED. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS...AS MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORTWAVE INCREASE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH ANY FOG RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE.
HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAWN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CU BASES ABOVE 3000 FT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  62  87  65 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          82  62  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        82  61  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  62  86  65 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         84  62  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      83  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          86  63  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       84  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         82  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            82  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    81  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$