000
FXUS63 KICT 020544
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SNOWPACKED AREAS IN THE
SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO RENEWED AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...GRADUALLY ABSORBING THE
REMNANT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS)...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HIGHER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. COULD SEE AN EVENING LOW IN THE MID
30S MONDAY EVE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SOME OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT (MOST NOTICEABLE IN CENTRAL KANSAS)
AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR MIDWEEK AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF THAT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE MOIST MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE CONVERGING WINDS ARE PROGGED. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN EVOLUTION DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE OFF OF THE PACIFIC...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY LEE TROUGHING. THE RESULT SHOULD BE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE RECENT SNOW COVER
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING A BIT FASTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT LATE EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE ON IFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS
HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE DURING MONDAY
BECOMING GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SNOWCOVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      19  37  33  47 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          18  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
ELDORADO        19  37  34  50 /  10  20  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  38  35  51 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         18  37  34  42 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      18  37  34  43 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          19  37  33  45 /  10  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       18  38  33  47 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     21  39  36  53 /  10  20  40  50
CHANUTE         18  37  35  52 /  10  20  40  40
IOLA            18  37  35  52 /  10  20  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    20  39  35  53 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$