Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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438
FXUS63 KICT 250447
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1147 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Current wind advisory looks good and will let expire on time at
22z. Main challenge will be precip/convective chances/trends
late Tuesday thru Wednesday. Strong flow aloft off the Pacific
will continue to develop and amplify an upper trof across the
western CONUS thru Tuesday, before moving out across the Plains
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Periodic shortwaves emanating from
the developing upper trof will move across the area tonight into
Tuesday with decent mid-level height falls over the central
Plains. A cold front will move south across western and central
Kansas Tuesday morning as a pre-frontal dry-line moves east into
south central Kansas. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures look
to limit convective chances in the warm sector ahead of these
features until early Tuesday evening. Another merging dry-line
cold front scenario may increase convergence sufficiently for
deep surface based convection across southeast Kansas before it
pushes east of the area late Tuesday evening. Should convection
develop before dark, MLCape values in the 1500-2000 j/kg range
and bulk shear around 60kts will easily support severe storms
with large hail and a damaging wind threat. Chances for some
elevated, post-frontal convection look good early Tuesday night,
perhaps as far northwest as the Kansas turnpike with a combo of
weak to modest CAPE and cloud bearing shear. A colder, brisk north
wind will develop across the area later Tuesday night into midday
Wednesday with scattered to numerous rain showers as the main
upper trof moves across Kansas. Another upper trof will drop
southeast across the high Plains during Thursday with elevated
moisture transport in the 850-700 mb layer resulting in weak
instability for a chance for late day showers and storms.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Somewhat better model consensus exists in showing the development
of a closed upper low across the four corners region by Saturday
morning before the low/upper trof lifts out across the Plains in
some fashion Saturday night through Sunday. The main gist will be
to push the more meaningful moisture and warmer air south of the
area over the weekend as well as lessening the risk for severe
weather across southern Kansas. That said, periods of lift and
elevated instability north of the front will still result in
scattered to numerous showers/storms at times thru much of the
weekend. Dry weather looks to return by late Sunday into Monday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Low-level wind shear will affect much of south-
central/southeastern Kansas overnight into early Tuesday morning,
as a 45-55 knot south-southwesterly low-level jet continues over
the top of decoupled/backed near ground level winds. Isolated
convection may develop on the nose of the low-level jet across
north-central/eastern Kansas, however, a slightly better signal
for isolated-widely seperated showers/storms is indicated just
north and east of the central/southeast Kansas terminals. A cold
front will push southward through central Kansas Tuesday
afternoon, switching winds from southerly to northerly. In
addition, as the front intercepts a dryline and better low-level
moisture over south-central KS/Flint Hills, scattered strong-
severe storms are expected to develop. This could affect ICT and
is likely at the CNU terminal. Other showers and widespread MVFR
ceilings are likely behind the front Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  77  45  54 /  10  10  50  50
Hutchinson      54  75  43  55 /  10  10  50  40
Newton          55  74  43  53 /  10  10  50  50
ElDorado        56  78  46  53 /  10  10  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   56  81  48  53 /   0  10  40  50
Russell         52  65  39  57 /  20  20  50  20
Great Bend      52  68  40  57 /  10  20  50  30
Salina          55  71  43  56 /  20  20  50  40
McPherson       54  73  43  54 /  10  20  50  40
Coffeyville     57  81  54  56 /   0  10  80  60
Chanute         56  79  51  54 /   0  10  80  60
Iola            55  78  51  54 /  10  10  80  60
Parsons-KPPF    57  80  53  55 /   0  10  80  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC



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