Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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987
FXUS63 KICT 190922
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
322 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Fairly active weather pattern the next several days, with a
handful of weather disturbances traversing Mid- America.

Moist south/southeast low-level flow will support a rather
cloudy...and at times drizzly/foggy 24-36 hours across the region.
Thinking the best potential for dense fog this morning will be
generally west of I-135, and also along/east of the Flint Hills.
Will monitor trends for possible dense fog advisory issuance.
Additionally, may see a few rain showers late this morning through
the afternoon across the area, as an upper PV anomaly approaches
from the southwest. Fog potential will increase areawide again
tonight, as diurnal cooling couples with moist upslope flow, with
drizzle chances shifting into mainly central Kansas.

Another moisture-starved storm system will move northeast across
the region Friday, supporting chances for a few showers across
central Kansas.

A third quick-hitting more substantial storm system will move
across the Southern Plains Saturday night and Sunday morning,
spreading meaningful precipitation chances across far southern
Kansas and Oklahoma. Models have been trending further south with
this system, so thinking most activity will be confined to
Kansas/Oklahoma border counties on south. Other than the potential
for a brief mix of rain/snow over southwest Kansas, mostly rain is
expected due to warmer thermal profiles.

Temperature-wise, above normal readings are expected. The warmest
days should be Fri and Sat, with low-level thickness values
supporting possible 60s over southern and southeast KS.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

A fourth storm system is expected to impact Mid-America Mon night
through early Wed. While there still remain some uncertainty
regarding exact magnitude and track of the system, overall model
and GFS ensemble consensus suggests that highest probability track
is north of the forecast area, keeping the highest precipitation
chances over northern Kansas and especially Nebraska.

Temperature-wise, above normal temperatures should continue
Sunday-Tuesday, although probably not as warm as Fri-Sat. Sunday
looks rather breezy in wake of the departing storm system. Tues
has potential to warm up significantly over mainly
southern/southeast KS, but for now will only go with daytime highs
in the 50s. High confidence in a return to near to below normal
temperatures Wed and beyond, as a broad longwave trough carves out
across Mid-America. Not expecting a major Arctic outbreak though.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

IFR/LIFR CIGS wl cover most areas thru Thu aftn & lkly byd as a
weak sfc low remains parked over the TX Panhandle. KSLN wl start
VFR out of the starting blocks but MVFR stratus quickly spreading
NE shud reach the terminal ~08Z w/ CIGS dropping into IFR Country
by 12Z. The weak sfc low`s reaming stationary over the TX
Panhandle dictates keeping most, if not all, areas in IFR cig
status thru late Thu aftn. A steady S-E flow 7-13kts should keep
the potl for LIFR BR in check.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  41  58  35 /  20  10  10   0
Hutchinson      50  38  55  34 /  20  10  10  10
Newton          51  41  56  35 /  20  20  10   0
ElDorado        52  42  58  36 /  20  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   55  41  61  35 /  20  10   0   0
Russell         47  36  49  31 /  20  10  20  20
Great Bend      47  36  49  32 /  20  10  20  10
Salina          49  40  53  35 /  20  20  20  10
McPherson       50  39  54  34 /  20  20  10  10
Coffeyville     56  45  65  40 /  10  20  10   0
Chanute         54  44  62  38 /  10  20  10   0
Iola            53  44  61  39 /  10  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    56  45  63  39 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS



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