Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 272015
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WHILE A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS DOMINANT IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER CU AND LIGHT WINDS WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S ARE PRESENT ACROSS KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED THERE IS SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
HOURS...INHIBITION IS FAIRLY STOUT...BUT IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
GET GOING...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH FOR A
FEW MORNING STORMS. CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND WARM 850 TEMPERATURES WILL AID WITH INSOLATION AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE
90S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE LATEST NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...PUSHING IT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
BY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE
COMBINATION OF PLENTIFUL MOISTURE/CAPE/SHEAR WILL PROVIDE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER EAST OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT THE CHANCE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
HUTCHINSON TO WICHITA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A MORE
ISOLATED CHANCE WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE MORE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBLE. POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS...BUT THE CHANCES DO
DIMINISH TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE HOT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S APPROACHING 100 ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
FRONT STALLING NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING MORE BROAD OVER THE
CONUS AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
HELP THE FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP TO CUT THE HEAT WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 90
DEGREE CLIMATIC NORMS FOR LATE JUNE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
09Z/SUN...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KS ON SUN MORNING....AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NRN KS.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  97  68  92 /   0  20  20   0
HUTCHINSON      66  98  65  93 /   0  20  10   0
NEWTON          66  95  66  91 /   0  30  20   0
ELDORADO        65  93  66  91 /   0  30  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  95  69  92 /   0  20  30   0
RUSSELL         65  96  64  93 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      64  97  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          67  96  65  93 /  10  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       65  97  64  92 /  10  20  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     64  90  69  91 /   0  10  30   0
CHANUTE         64  90  66  89 /   0  30  30   0
IOLA            64  90  66  89 /   0  30  30   0
PARSONS-KPPF    65  90  68  90 /   0  20  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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