Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211150
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
650 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday morning)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A weak cold frontal boundary continues to make slow progress into
nrn OK and portions of SE KS at this time. Drier air in the low
layers associated with the cold frontal passage continues to seep
into the area as well, with surface dewpoints in Central KS falling
into the upper 30s.

Expect the cold frontal boundary to make slow progress into Central
OK today, with the cooler drier air settling over most of the area.
This will lead to cooler temps today (closer to climo normals). Weak
isentropic lift over the top of this southward moving boundary may
lead to an isolated shower chance over extreme southeast KS, so will
leave a small pop in for this early today, but think as the front
sags further south the chance of showers in SE KS will diminish by
this afternoon.

Most of the short range models show the front stalling out over srn
OK by tonight, with low level moisture return gradually increasing
over the top of the front leading to increasing low clouds initially
over srn KS early on Wed, and across much of the forecast area by
Wed afternoon. Shallow isentropic lift in the 290-300k levels may
lead to widely scattered shower chances for southeast KS by wed
afternoon.

Expect the low level moisture to stay rather shallow for Wed night
into early Thu as the low level moisture transport continues across
the area.  Saturation in the low layers may actually lead to a more
widespread light rain or drizzle chance by late Wed night into Thu
morning as warm advection/moisture transport continues.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Thu looks to be the start of a fairly active and more progressive
pattern for the plains, as a series of shortwaves begin to come
across the srn Rockies, with the flow pattern becoming zonal to more
southwesterly.  The first shortwave is expected to move out into the
plains on Thu afternoon with a low pressure area developing over NE
CO.  Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along a dryline
expected to be associated with this low, across wrn KS by late Thu
afternoon/evening, with some of this storm activity possibly making
it into Central KS by late Thu night.

Models show the main shortwave deepening as it moves into the plains
by Fri am, with the main surface low in NE CO dropping SE into the
OK panhandle by Fri afternoon.  This will lead to the dryline moving
rapidly pushing across the plains for Fri afternoon, with a fairly
prominent dry slot expected across the wrn sections of the forecast
area.  Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along the dryline
for areas west of I-135 for Fri afternoon.  As noted previously,
depth of moisture will be questionable with instability lacking for
widespread severe weather, but strong bulk shear of 65-80 kts may
lead to some low topped linear severe storms. Basically a high
shear/marginal instability severe chance for most of ern KS into
Fri evening.

The main surface low will move across nrn OK late Fri night or early
on Sat, with wrap around showers to the north of the low moving
across most of the area.

The progressive pattern looks to continue for the rest of the
weekend into the beginning of next week.  Could see a lull between
the departing system from Sat morning and the next system expected
to move out into the srn plains for Sun afternoon/evening.

Some model differences noted between the GFS and ECMWF on placement
of the surface low and timing of the Sun night system, which will
affect the severe weather chances.  Latest GFS suggests south
central KS and OK may have a better severe storm chance for Sun
Evening, with the ECMWF keeping the severe chances further south.

Beginning of the week looks like continued chances for off and on
shower and storm chances as low level moisture remains across the
area, with the progressive flow leading to areas of low pressure
moving rapidly across the plains.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Strong high pressure that has been centered over the Saskatchewan/
Manitoba border during the ngt wl drift SE today & should reach
the MN/Ontario border tngt. The NE-E pressure gradient is tight &
as such NE winds wl be brisk w/ sustained 17-22kts lkly thrut the
day w/ 25-30kt gusts. All areas wl remain VFR altho 4,000-5,000ft
Stratocu wl spread acrs KS as the mrng progresses. W/ such a tight
pressure gradient cont`g thru 22/00Z winds would only gradually
diminish this eve.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Light north to northeasterly winds will lead to a reduced fire
danger threat for today.  Increasing low level cloud cover tonight
into Wed will also keep the fire danger low as well as light rain
showers will be possible.  A very high fire danger returns to the
region for Thu and Fri as a strong low pressure area and gusty south
winds move into the plains.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  30
Hutchinson      60  40  55  45 /  10  10  10  30
Newton          60  39  53  45 /  10  10  10  30
ElDorado        62  41  55  46 /  10  10  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   66  45  58  50 /  10  10  20  40
Russell         57  36  53  43 /  10  30  10  30
Great Bend      58  37  54  44 /  10  20  10  30
Salina          59  38  53  44 /  10  10  10  30
McPherson       59  39  53  44 /  10  10  10  30
Coffeyville     68  46  58  48 /  20  30  30  40
Chanute         63  43  55  45 /  20  20  30  40
Iola            61  41  54  44 /  20  20  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    65  45  57  48 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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