Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211756
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1256 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

The main challenge is the timing/trends in convection tonight
through early this week. In the mean time, a very pleasant finish to
the weekend is on tap today with relatively light winds and warmer
temperatures. In this regard the going forecast is on track. A
shortwave upper trof will track southeast across the Great Basin and
central Rockies today before sliding east into the central Plains
tonight. Modest elevated warm advection/moisture transport in
concert with the lead shortwave may support isolated to widely
scattered showers/isolated TSRA tonight, mainly along/west of the
Kansas turnpike. A stronger upper trof rotating within the
developing mean longwave and evolving upper low centered over
Ontario province will drop south from the northern into the central
Plains Monday afternoon into Monday night. Modest moisture return
ahead of the associated surface cold front is expected to result in
MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg by Monday afternoon. This in combo
with modest deep layer shear around 35 kts should support strong to
marginally severe storms along the cold front as it moves south
across the forecast area late Monday afternoon and evening. This is
in the spirit of the going forecast. Amplification of the upper trof
will take place from the mid-CONUS across the Mississippi Valley
from Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow cooler air to
advect south across the area again. Relatively cool air aloft under
the upper trof Tuesday across eastern Kansas may support diurnally
driven shallow convection, so will maintain modest chance PoPs.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

After the mid-week cool down, a warming trend will commence for
the end of the week. The passage of a shortwave upper ridge across
the central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday will signal a
transition in the mean upper flow as troughing over the western
CONUS will result in periodically disturbed west-southwest flow
downstream across the central Plains for the end of the week.
This could also lead to opportunities for periodic precip chances
as well to start the holiday weekend.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A surface high over southeastern Kansas, will slide eastward into
Missouri/Arkansas tonight. This will allow light westerly winds to
back to light south-southwesterly. A batch of mid-level
altocumulus/castellanus over west-central Kansas, associated with
700 mb warm air advection/confluence may reach a few of the
central Kansas terminals this afternoon, before weakening. A few
sprinkles or a brief light shower is possible at the RSL,GBD,HUT
terminals this afternoon, but no restrictions to
ceilings/visibilities are expected. A shortwave over the Great
Basin this afternoon, will move eastward across Colorado tonight
and Kansas on Monday. This feature will bring an increase in mid-
level cloud cover and scattered showers/isolated storms, with
better lift and marginal instability. No significant restrictions
to ceilings/visibilities are expected however.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  54  72  52 /  10  30  40  40
Hutchinson      74  54  71  51 /  10  40  40  40
Newton          72  54  71  51 /  10  30  40  40
ElDorado        73  54  72  52 /  10  20  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   74  54  73  53 /  10  20  40  40
Russell         73  52  73  48 /  10  40  40  50
Great Bend      73  52  72  49 /  10  40  40  50
Salina          74  54  73  51 /  10  30  40  50
McPherson       73  53  71  51 /  10  40  40  50
Coffeyville     73  53  75  55 /   0  10  20  40
Chanute         72  53  74  54 /   0  10  30  40
Iola            72  52  73  54 /   0  10  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    72  53  75  55 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC


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