Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 270807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED
IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WAS CAUSING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
IOWA AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING.  THE PATTERN IS A SLOW PROGRESSIVE
ONE.  A RATHER BENIGN SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH.

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS IS PERSISTENCE.  THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS
RATHER WEEK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS CONTINUES TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS NEAR PERSISTENCE.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE LONG TERM FOCUS THIS WEEK IS CENTERED ON THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE REGION. NWP IS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT
SUGGESTING THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS IN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE EAST AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER LATE MONDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NUMBER OF OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE FIRST IS MONDAY NIGHT.  LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDER WAY BY
MONDAY EVENING.  THAT IN ADDITION TO HEALTHY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SUPPORTS STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS
SHOULD PUSH THE STORMS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART
OF KANSAS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.  STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH IN
CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY EVENING...THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST SOMEWHAT WITH DEWPOINT
FORECASTS SUGGESTING A DRYLINE LOOKING FEATURE EXTENDING EAST AS FAR
AS DODGE CITY.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AGAIN
SUPPORT CONVECTION OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE RESPECTIVELY.  THAT
SAID...UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS JUST NOT COUPLED WITH ANY FORCINGS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS...DO NOT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT
GREAT...THOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY SURGES EAST IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WHICH FURTHER INCREASES THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THERE IS A DRYLINE LIKE FEATURE SUGGESTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINT FORECAST.  THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER WHERE SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS.  THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...BUT THE TIMING RIGHT NOW WOULD PLACE IT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS MOVING NORTHWEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL
IMPACT THE KCNU TERMINAL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXECUTED AT KCNU
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS. ACROSS ALL OTHER
TERMINALS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.

JMR


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  61  84  61 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      84  61  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          82  60  82  60 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        83  61  84  61 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  61  84  61 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         83  61  83  61 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      83  60  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          84  61  84  61 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       83  60  83  60 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     83  59  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         82  59  83  60 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            82  59  83  60 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    83  59  84  60 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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