Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191715
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1215 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Main challenges are how warm the next couple of days and then
chances for precip/convection by mid-week. Upper ridge will build
across the area through the early week periods with the resultant
increase in geopotential heights/mean thickness values supporting
temperatures much above seasonal climo. Latent heat effects from
evapotranspiration of recent rainfall/moist soils may stunt max
temperature potential a bit, though still expect all areas to top
90F today and Tuesday. Higher level moisture from the remnants of
the tropical Pacific system look to advect northward over the
southwest CONUS/southern Rockies early in the week before being
shunted eastward across a portion of the Plains by mid-week. We
have seen this scenario a few times this late warm season and it
has often led to a bit more precip/increase in convection than
expected. This moist tropical feed is expected to be accompanied
by a transient mid/upper level shortwave trof on Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Slight to modest PoPs look warranted in this
higher PWAT environment across central Kansas, though some
adjustment south and east may be needed as well with later
forecasts.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

The medium range continues to show a significant longwave upper
trof/closed low evolving across the western CONUS late in the
week. While there is some uncertainty as to how this system will
lift out over the Rockies and into the Plains, it does offer the
potential for much cooler air and increased precip chances over
the weekend. So for now little change to the going forecast will
be made in the outer periods.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Weak boundary will likely meander through KRSL/KSLN this afternoon
or evening with light and variable winds overnight. Increasing
surface pressure gradient will result in a bit stronger winds
areawide on Tuesday. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      94  68  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          92  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        92  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   93  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         94  65  94  71 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      94  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          94  67  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     93  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         91  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            90  69  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    92  70  92  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH



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