Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 102349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW IS
POSITIONED FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OUT OF KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SWOOPING
SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FIRST WAVE SHALL GRADUALLY
EXIT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE EAST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

SINCE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...POPS
HAVE BEEN DROPPED IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS HAVE HELD IN
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING
TO FOLLOW IN BEHIND THIS LOW WITH A PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
THE NORTH TO BRING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL COMPARE TO
LATER FALL SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN WESTERN KANSAS
GIVEN THE CONSISTENT MODEL TRACKS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THESE
AREAS. DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS
FROM THE OVERHEAD HIGH ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO AID IN
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. OVERALL THE ONGOING TREND OF THE
FORECAST WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

AFTER A CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR START ON SATURDAY
MORNING AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURE VALUES TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY SUNDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TRAVEL SOUTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD HELP TO
DEVELOP ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO HAVE CONSISTENT RUNS IN LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THEM. THESE KINKS MAY BE WORKED OUT IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS.

JUANITA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECK OF STRATUS ORIENTED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. MODELS SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS...THIS
STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

CURRENT FORECAST WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...COULD LEAD TO TYING OR SETTING RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR POSSIBLY
RUSSELL ON FRIDAY MORNING AND RUSSELL AS WELL AS CHANUTE ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS MAY HAVE NEAR
RECORDS FOR SALINA ON SATURDAY TOO. THE BEST POSSIBILITY LOOKS TO
BE ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING PARTICULARLY
IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

JUANITA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  73  54  61 /  10  10  30  40
HUTCHINSON      51  70  51  59 /  10  10  40  50
NEWTON          54  70  51  58 /  10  10  30  40
ELDORADO        55  72  54  61 /  10  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  74  56  63 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         48  63  45  55 /  10  10  60  50
GREAT BEND      48  65  47  55 /  10  10  60  50
SALINA          50  68  50  58 /  10  10  40  50
MCPHERSON       51  69  50  57 /  10  10  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     60  74  58  66 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         58  72  56  64 /  10  10  10  30
IOLA            57  71  55  63 /  10  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    59  73  57  65 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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