Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 051747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTHEAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER SUPPORT.
HOWEVER CONTINUED LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TAIL END OF
THE MIGRATORY TROF. OTHERWISE BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY
WITH MAXS CLIMBING CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST AND SEASONAL
JULY CLIMO. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT RESULTING IN A CAPPED AIRMASS WITH MAXS NEARING THE
CENTURY MARK ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS LOOKS TO BE WELL AFTER
PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HOT NEAR CENTURY
TYPE MAXS ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK GRADUALLY SOUTH ACROSS
KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ACTIVATE
THE ELEVATED/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS KANSAS. SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO MODEST CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOWER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH TENDENCY OF THE GFS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD LEND
TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND BUILD HEAT BACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR A HOT AND DRY FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

BREEZY SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AND BACKING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A MOIST AND
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
AT BEST AND PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  73  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  73  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         95  71  99  72 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      95  71  99  72 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  72  94  74 /  10  20  10  10
CHANUTE         89  71  93  74 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            88  71  92  74 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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