Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1211 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

With westerly winds diminishing on schedule, the Wind Advisory will
likewise expire on schedule at 7 PM CDT.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Forecast highlights focus around potential high-end severe
weather Thursday late afternoon-evening, with more severe weather
possible Friday late morning through night. Cooler weather
expected Saturday through next week, with non-severe
shower/thunderstorm chances arriving again Sunday night-Tuesday.

May see a rogue shower/thunderstorm near I-70 counties this
afternoon, underneath cold air aloft in proximity to departing
upper low. Any chances will diminish toward 5-7pm. Otherwise, a
rather quiet night as shortwave ridging passes overhead. Will
likely see low clouds develop toward dawn over southeast KS as
low-level moisture surges back northwest, along with low clouds
over central Kansas in a moist upslope flow regime. Can`t rule out
some patchy fog for a few hours early Thursday morning southeast
Kansas, but not expecting widespread dense fog.

Attention then turns to severe weather potential Thursday late
afternoon and night, some of which could be higher-end severe
weather, especially across central and south-central Kansas.
Approaching shortwave trough currently over the Great Basin will
commence High Plains cyclogenesis Thursday, allowing a warm front
and associated rich low-level moisture to surge back northwest
to around I-70, with a sharpening dryline extending from western
Kansas south into far western Oklahoma. Expecting storms to fire
in vicinity of the dryline and possibly the central KS warm front
by mid-late afternoon as large scale ascent approaches from the
west. Strong instability in excess of 3000-4000 j/kg along with
strengthening deep layer shear will support severe storms, capable
of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. What is
especially getting our attention is the strong low-level shear
owing to backed surface winds and a strengthening low-level jet.
Given this impressive low-level shear along with strong
instability, low cloud bases and a big broad/beefy warm sector,
the potential exists for a few strong/violent tornadoes,
especially before 10pm generally along/west of I-135, and
along/south of I-70. NAM/GFS analog forecast soundings compare
this event with a handful of notable past significant tornado
events, including May 29, 2004 (rural Conway Springs EF4). All
this said, there is some concern activity will tend to grow
upscale/linear and/or become mixed mode fairly quickly after
initiation due to storm mergers and strong large-scale forcing,
which would tend to lessen the tornado risk. However, even if this
occurs, embedded intense supercell structures are still likely,
especially where there are breaks in the line or tail-end storms,
which would still be capable of high-end severe weather including

Depending on how expansive Thursday night`s thunderstorm complex
is across eastern Kansas, Friday has the potential for severe
thunderstorms as well, as a second shortwave approaches from the
southwest. Given strong forcing and moist warm sector, storms
could fire much earlier on Friday. Suspect the main threat will be
confined to south-central/southeast Kansas, in the vicinity of a
probable convectively-induced outflow boundary, intersecting with
a dryline/cold front somewhere near the I-35/135 corridor. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty, but the potential for strong
instability along with continued strong deep layer shear may
support all severe weather types once again, along with locally
heavy rain/flooding through Friday evening/night. Will continue to
monitor trends regarding Friday severe weather potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Weather quiets down and cools off for the weekend through next
week, with little to no severe weather chances on the horizon.
Could be looking at off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances Sunday
night through Tuesday, but widespread severe weather or heavy rain
appears unlikely.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

At 05Z a weak cold front draped from Northeast KS, thru Central KS
to just north of the OK Panhandle continued to settle slowly south/
southeast toward Southern KS. The front will pose problems from a
stratiform standpoint early Thursday morning across Southeast KS &
to a lesser extent South-Central KS where lower-deck moisture will
spread north & pool along the boundary. Confidence remains highest
for "low-end" MVFR cigs at KCNU where cigs may even drop into IFR
Country 12-13Z. For now have placed KCNU in "low-end" MVFR cig
status til ~14Z when the onset of 9-13kt southerly winds would
lift cigs late in the morning with the terminal in VFR cig status
by mid-afternoon. The greatest concern shifts to severe TSRA late
Thu Afternoon with the greatest risk occurring at KICT & KHUT
where closest to a "Moderate Risk" for severe thunderstorms. For
now have assigned "VCTS" to both terminals effective 21Z. Note
that very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), damaging winds &
even a few tornadoes are all possible from late Thu Afternoon to
Thu Night. Stay tuned.


Wichita-KICT    56  82  63  75 /  10  40  70  60
Hutchinson      54  80  60  73 /   0  50  80  60
Newton          54  81  61  73 /  10  40  80  60
ElDorado        56  82  63  75 /  10  20  70  60
Winfield-KWLD   59  84  64  76 /  10  20  60  60
Russell         51  67  54  69 /   0  60  80  60
Great Bend      51  74  55  71 /   0  60  80  60
Salina          53  75  59  73 /   0  40  80  70
McPherson       53  80  59  72 /   0  50  80  70
Coffeyville     61  84  66  80 /  10  10  60  50
Chanute         60  83  65  78 /  10  10  70  60
Iola            58  83  65  78 /  10  10  70  60
Parsons-KPPF    61  84  66  79 /  10  10  60  60




SHORT TERM...Kleinsasser
LONG TERM...Kleinsasser
AVIATION...EPS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.