Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252011
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF
THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NORTHEAST KS TO CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL
KS THIS AFTERNOON. A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN
KS WHICH WILL AID IN SUSTAINING INITIALLY DIURNAL-BASED STORMS WELL
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A SLOW EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT...AND HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH MUCH LESSER PROBABILITIES FURTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED. MLCAPES
OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND MARGINAL-MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30
KNOTS...WITHIN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME AXIS...COULD RESULT
IN A FEW STRONG-SEVERE...MAINLY MULTICELL STORM MODES. DOWNBURST
WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CORES. THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES FOR TODAY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02
UTC THIS EVENING.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
MORNING...HAVE MENTIONS OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY...HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 106 ACROSS THE REGION...UPON COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES
WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
MIXING OUT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WHERE A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...THIS CONVECTION
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AS
HEAT INDICES UPWARDS OF 106 LOOK POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

JMC/JMR

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL
DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE RETURN OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

JMR

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE AT MIDDAY...EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE POOLING. OTHER MORE WIDELY SEPARATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST KS WITH SLOW
EASTWARD PROPAGATION POTENTIAL. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO TS AT RSL THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND VCTS AT RSL...SLN...HUT
TONIGHT. THE MAIN STORM THREATS ARE STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY TO MVFR/IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76 100  76 101 /  30  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76 100  76 102 /  50  20  10  10
NEWTON          75 100  76 101 /  40  20  10  10
ELDORADO        76  98  75 100 /  30  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  97  76 100 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELL         73 100  75 103 /  50  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      73 100  75 103 /  50  20  30  10
SALINA          75 100  76 103 /  50  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       75 100  76 102 /  50  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  96  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         76  95  74  98 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            76  95  74  98 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    76  95  75  98 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ071-
072-095-096-099-100.

&&

$$



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