Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251754
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG
SOUTH WINDS TODAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THUS TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS A RESULT...WE WILL HOIST A
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MEANWHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND EJECT OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO KANSAS ON FRIDAY WITH COLDER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-290K LAYER LOOKS TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS...AND WITH EXPECTED DRY MID- LEVELS THIS
COULD GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AS
CLOUD ICE IS REMOVED ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO WEAKER VERTICAL
MOTIONS/LIMITED CLOUD ICE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER BIG CHANGES ARE COMING
THEREAFTER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND DISLODGE A MASSIVE CHUNK OF ARCTIC
AIR...WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND BEGIN TO AFFECT KANSAS ON MONDAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BECOME
FULLY ENTRENCHED ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. STANDARDIZED 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
FOR THIS AIRMASS BY THE GEFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED
IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 RANGE...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE A VERY COLD
AIRMASS BUT NOT RECORD SETTING COLD. IT TYPICALLY TAKES
STANDARDIZED 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALY VALUES OF 3.0 OR LESS
COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW COVER TO DROP OUR TEMPERATURES INTO
POSSIBLE RECORD SETTING TERRITORY. SNOW CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING
ALL THAT GOOD WITH THIS EVENT SO AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY
SLOWLY WITH MINIMAL TO NO EXPECTED SNOW COVER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

STRONG & GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SOME BETWEEN 23-01Z THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAIN
MODESTLY STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST LOW
MVFR CIGS FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR...WITHIN
LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS AT CNU BY AROUND DAWN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  34  44  25 /   0   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON      54  31  37  21 /   0   0  20  40
NEWTON          53  32  40  24 /   0   0  10  40
ELDORADO        54  35  47  26 /   0   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  36  49  27 /   0   0  20  40
RUSSELL         54  25  30  17 /   0  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      56  27  30  18 /   0  10  30  40
SALINA          54  29  35  20 /   0  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       54  30  35  21 /   0  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     56  41  53  31 /   0  10  20  40
CHANUTE         53  39  50  29 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            53  39  49  28 /   0  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    54  40  52  31 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-
068>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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