Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 150446
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Tonight-Tuesday:
Outside chance for some diurnal storms through sunset given rich
moisture, but lack of forcing and with departing shortwave,
chances appear too low to mention. Current thinking is any storms
along KS/NE border would remain just outside the forecast area.
But chances will be on the increase towards daybreak as a
vorticity maximum moves out of OK and across southern Kansas. With
increasing diffluence aloft, precipitation could linger well into
the day, especially in Southeast KS. Anticipate clouds may cut
into maxes in Southeast KS.

Tuesday night-Wednesday:
Precipitation chances will increase during the period as lower
level moisture increases. Highs on Wednesday will be highly
dependent on breaks what should be extensive clouds. Precipitation
will end from west to east as final upper wave departs.

Thursday:
Drier air and surface high building over the area should suppress
rain chances on Thursday. Precipitation may redevelop as early as
Thursday evening in the west, but this is probably fast. Better
chances will be closer to daybreak Friday. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Latest runs of GFS/ECMWF are in fairly good agreement this
period, with only minor differences in amplitude in long wave
pattern. This is at odds with prior runs that showed considerable
variations both from model to model and run to run. At this point,
little change to going blend. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Main Aviation Concerns: Low stratus/fog potential late tonight

Light southeasterly boundary layer winds and surface dewpoints
near 70 to the lower 70s, should aid in the redevelopment of LIFR
stratus/fog again late tonight into early Tuesday morning. The
better signal area is roughly along/southeast of the Kansas
Turnpike affecting the ICT and CNU terminals, although there is a
chance for brief LIFR conditions at HUT and SLN. Convection
chances are highest over the high Plains overnight into Tuesday.
A few short range and hi-resolution models hint at an MCV feature
producing storms Tuesday afternoon in south-central Kansas. With
radar trends showing the mesoscale storm complex over the Texas
Panhandle propagating southward late this evening, confidence is
low for this progged MCV associated convection affecting south-
central Kansas Tuesday, so will leave thunder mention out of the
forecast at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  90  72  90 /  10  30  40  40
Hutchinson      69  89  71  88 /  10  30  40  40
Newton          69  88  71  87 /  10  30  40  40
ElDorado        69  88  72  88 /  10  30  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   70  90  73  89 /  20  30  30  40
Russell         68  91  69  86 /  10  20  50  40
Great Bend      69  90  69  87 /  10  20  50  40
Salina          69  91  72  88 /  10  20  50  50
McPherson       68  89  70  88 /  10  30  50  50
Coffeyville     70  88  74  87 /  10  50  30  60
Chanute         70  87  73  87 /  10  40  40  60
Iola            70  86  72  86 /  10  40  40  60
Parsons-KPPF    71  88  74  87 /  10  50  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMC



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