Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

162
FXUS63 KLBF 032134
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT. WENT A BIT COLDER IN THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS LIKE THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST DRAINAGE WIND...LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL AS LOW AS 5
BELOW ZERO.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH A SOLID
SNOWFIELD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WILL ONLY WARM HIGHS 1
TO 3 DEGREES OVER THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK LEEWARD SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL.  A VAST DEEP SNOWPACK OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA MAY NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WILL NEED TO WATCH A SERIES OF QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVES AS THE
MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME WIND. THE
FIRST WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS NOW SUGGEST UPWARDS OF UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH QPF WITH THE SYSTEM ACROSS NW NEBRASKA WHICH WILL
FALL AS SNOW.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.  AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.  WILL CONTINUE TO CAP CHANCES AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SUNDAY STORM HOWEVER AS
THE GFS IS SUGGESTING UPWARDS TO 60KTS AT H85...IT COULD BE WINDY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

GUIDANCE IS CATCHING UP WITH THE DENSE SNOWPACK...WHICH NOW
INDICATES HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THERE MAY BE
A FEW LOWER 40 READINGS SATURDAY AS H85 T/S WARM ABOVE 0C WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TRANSITORY RIDGE.

RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PLACE
THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE OF WARM AIR TO THE WEST...AND
COLD TO THE EAST.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS A SHARP RANGE OF T/S FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS IN
FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
15 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.