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000
FXUS63 KLBF 100530 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS PLAINS TODAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS
AROUND 80 AND RH VALUES DOWN TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. THE WARM AND DRY
AIR IS COMBINING WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH TO
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS N DAKOTA AND MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS THE BIG
QUESTION...AS VERY DRY AIR IS PRECEDING THE FRONT. MORNING SOUNDING
ONLY HAD 0.25 INCHES OF PWATS...OR 68 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND THAT
WAS BEFORE WE SOARED TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON. DO HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SO THERE IS SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR ARRIVES. WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO MORE DRY
AIR. NEGATIVE LI/S EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE S DAKOTA BORDER EARLY. FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES SOUTH WITH PRECIP CHANCE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S. LATE IN THE DAY A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT IN FROM THE WEST. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE/PANHANDLE. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...WHICH MAYBE TO EARLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK COOL FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD BE AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY EARLY ON MAINLY IN
THE PANHANDLE. DROPPED POPS DOWN INTO SCHC WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES CUT BACK INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16 TO 17C ON SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY HAVE
TO BE WARMED UP SOME. GENERALLY RAINSHOWERS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MAY ADD THUNDER WITH THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES OVER NIGHT QUESTIONABLE AND HAVE A MIX OF SNOW
CONTINUING OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 40S
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES
OF SNOW. MEX GIVING US SOME SNOW. SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT TO DROP PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. THEREFORE THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN AT ANY ONE SITE IS LOW. MIDDLE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY 5SM OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

WIND IS THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
THE AREA...WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT AND THE SPEED WILL INCREASE
SUDDENLY TO 20-25G30-38KT AND DECREASE AFTER 1 TO 2 HOURS TO
13-18G21-25KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SWITCH FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. A
BRIEF INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A SLOW
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE EARLY ON.

COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT
AND MOST AREAS CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT. WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WILL
LIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING A WARM UP FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS NOT AS WARM AS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TEMPS AND DEW PTS AS MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT...AND WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO SEE MIN RH VALUES AROUND THE
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

TEMPS TODAY FOR MOST AREAS HAVE SOARED TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THE LAST TIME HIGHS WERE THIS WARM WAS EARLY IN OCTOBER.
NORTH PLATTE LAST TOPPED OUT WITH A HIGH OF AT LEAST 80 DEGREES ON
OCTOBER 2. VALENTINE SAW A HIGH OF 80 ON OCTOBER 8TH. WHILE HIGHS
ARE UNSEASONABLE WARM...RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...SO NO RECORDS WERE REACHED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK
CLIMATE...MASEK