Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 040847
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
247 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

A fog bank appears to be hung up across ern Lincoln County and
Custer County. A pacific cold front is sweeping through swrn Neb at
08z and this should end the fog before 12z.

The forecast today uses a blend of the HRRR models, RAP and GFS for
POPs, temperatures and snowfall. The rapid refresh models (HRRRs and
RAP) are very aggressive sweeping the snow underway across WY this
morning through most of wrn and ncntl Neb today. The NAM nest model
solution is close to these models also. Given the temperature
forecast for falling temperatures, strong winds and snow, It looks
like the road surfaces in Holt, Brown and Rock counties will fall
below the freezing mark this afternoon with around an inch of snow.
These counties have been added to the Winter Weather advisory in
place for parts of wrn and ncntl Neb.

The model blend indicates 1 to 4 inches with the 4 inches across
Sheridan Co. Note that several models show about 1/2 inch of QPF
across that area and it is obvious a very strong Black Hills
convergence will be operating across Nwrn Sheridan Co. today. For
consistency, the forecast limits the snowfall in that area to 3
inches.

The wind and wind gust forecast is a blend of the models listed
above and CONSMOS. The RAP indicates 500m AGL winds of 30 to 35 kts
which supports the forecast for surface winds of 30 to 35 mph. A
blend of the models indicated gusts of 45 to 50 kts which was
limited at 46 kt for gusts to 55 mph in many areas. The very
progressive storm motion is expected to preclude high wind criteria
(gusts to 58 mph) but it will be close and a few gusts to 58 mph
might occur.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Northwest flow aloft will be locked in for the foreseeable future.
At the surface, winds will be from the northwest for at least the
next week, with gusty conditions at times as several weak cold
front will cross the area. This pattern is due to a large trough
that will dig southeast across central and eastern Canada and into
the eastern portions of the United States.

The coldest air, arctic in nature, will remain mostly northeast of
our area during the next week. Our region will mostly be
influenced by a Pacific airmass, as it moves north across the Gulf
of Alaska then turns east and spills southeast along the lee of
the Rocky mountains. This will keep temperatures mild, but not
nearly as warm as it has been the last few weeks. Highs will be
near average for this time of year, in the 30s and 40s. It will
feel colder though as persistent northwest winds add a bite to the
air.

Significant precipitation is not expected, however scattered snow
showers cannot be ruled out, as bouts of mid level frontogenesis
are expected due to colder arctic air across the Great Lakes
region and warmer Pacific air to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2017

For the KLBF terminal: Patchy fog in the Platte Valley may reduce
visibility locally to a quarter mile through 10z overnight. A cold
front will track through the terminal around 10z, which will scour
out any fog as winds shift to the west then northwest toward
daybreak. Winds will increase from the northwest at 30 to 40 KTS
Monday morning and will persist through sundown Monday. Winds will
then diminish to around 15 KTS Monday evening. For the KVTN
terminal: Ceilings will steadily fall overnight as a cold front
passes through north central Nebraska. MVFR CIGS ranging from 1500
to 2000 FT AGL are expected Monday morning with the threat for
light snow and blowing snow. Visbys associated with falling and
blowing snow may drop as low as 1SM. Visbys and Ceilings will
improve Monday afternoon, however northwesterly winds of 30 to 40
KTS are expected through sundown. Winds will diminish to 20 to 30
KTS after sundown Monday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ this morning to
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NEZ004>010-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler



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