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000
FXUS63 KLBF 170014
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
714 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS NO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
TRANSITIONS INTO A LATE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOISTURE IS ELEVATED AND LIFT
IS MARGINAL. BEST LAPSE RATES TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMP
THROUGH THE COLUMN IS BELOW ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BEST LIFT AREA...NW CWA. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP HOLDING TOGETHER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES
DECREASE...HOWEVER THERE IS A POCKET OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K/295K
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY...IN LIQUID
FORM...INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. TEMPS REBOUND
TOMORROW ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND EXIT EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELOW H850
MB...WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT AND MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. 998MB LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER SWRN SD
BY FRIDAY EVENING DRAWING THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A
CHECK WITH THE MODELS INDICATED LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH CLOUDS AS
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS.

THE MODELS DID SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD BE CARRIED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. K INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE
25C OR LESS BUT THE NAM INDICATED 750MB CAPE UP TO 300 J/KG. POPS
ARE ISOLATED FRIDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR PINE RIDGE.

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FCST AREA SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A GOOD PORTION OF ANY
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN
BY THE MODELS THAN MORE CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...K INDICES REMAIN 25 TO 30C ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND TSTM CHANCES ARE ISOLATED.

FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH. THESE WINDS ARE PART OF A VERY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WHICH IS
TIMED TO MOVE OFF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS...WARM LOWS IN
THE 40S SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES AT H850 FALL ABOUT 7C
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD COVER THE FCST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH AND LIFT INTO KS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
COULD ENERGIZE THE PACIFIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTL NEB SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS
BELIEVED THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND SKIES WOULD CLEAR BY AFTN ALL AREAS.

A DEEP UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...WILL MIGRATE
SOUTH AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DO SEVERAL THINGS. IT WILL FLUSH VERY WARM AIR OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL OPEN THE GULF AND BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND IT WILL DEEPEN A SFC
LOW TO AROUND 985 MB OR LOWER BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
PRODUCING BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 35 KT AND ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

THERE ARE WRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECM WOULD LIKE TO GENERATE
TSTMS LATE TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS
BELIEVED THE BEST FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECM STORMS COULD FIRE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE FCST WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON DETAILS AS
INDICATED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 4 THROUGH 8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CEILINGS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH. SOME MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT FOG.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE
WEST WITH SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE FAR WEST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER