Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 142015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Clouds struggled to clear once again today due to the presence of
a passing short wave trough. We may see some partial clearing
late this afternoon and early this evening as that trough pulls
east of the area. However, low level warm air and moisture
advection will develop throughout the evening and into the
overnight period. This will likely lead to developing and lowering
stratus clouds, as well as areas of fog and drizzle into early
Saturday morning.

We should then see a gradual decrease in clouds on Saturday
although the eastern Ozarks may see clouds for much of the day.
Meanwhile, strong warm air advection will commence with brisk and
gusty southerly winds. Highs should warm to around 80 degrees over
most areas, however temperatures will be held down a bit over the
eastern Ozarks due to the cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Warm and breezy conditions will then continue into early next week
as an upper level ridge folds over the region. Highs will warm
into the middle to upper 80s Sunday and Monday as 850 mb
temperatures warm into the 18-21 Celsius range. A record high
temperature or two may be in jeopardy.

Models then continue to advertise a cold front dropping southeast
into the area from Monday night into Tuesday as short wave energy
moves east across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. How far
south this front makes it is still in question given an overall
lack of mid/upper level support. Nevertheless, it will give us at
least a slim chance for showers and thunderstorms if low level
moisture quality is sufficient.

A much stronger trough is then forecast by global models to dig
southeast through the region from Wednesday into Thursday. This
trough should sharpen up that front and draw a better quality air
mass northward. Thus, chances for showers and thunderstorms look
better as we get later into next week. We will also see cooling
temperatures once that front finally pushes south of the Ozarks.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Conditions will likely remain IFR for most of this afternoon,
though occasional breaks to MVFR are possible through early
evening. After that, conditions should deteriorate to IFR area-
wide, with LIFR across south central Missouri, possibly affecting
the BBG site toward morning. Cig and vis restrictions should then
lift fairly quickly Saturday morning.


Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

A much warmer air mass will spread over the area to end the
weekend to start early next week. Below are the record highs and
years for Sunday October 16th and Monday October 17th.

October 16th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     85              1950
Joplin          88              1995
Vichy/Rolla     87              1950
West Plains     88              1950

October 17th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     89              1964
Joplin          88              1964
Vichy/Rolla     89              1950
West Plains     88              1953




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.