Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 282341
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A cold front continues to slow push south into the area early this
evening. Scattered storms have developed along and ahead of this
front. The farther storms push off the front the more they
weaken, which is occurring across southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri. Across central Missouri the storms are remaining
closer to the front. Scattered storms may continue to spread back
to the west were storms have moved well off the front this evening.

Instability and lift from the front are currently at their max now, and
once the sun sets instability will start to decrease along with
the coverage in storms. There are questions on how far south the
storms make it before they dissipate this evening. Areas with the
best potential will be along and north of Highway 60.

Strong mid and deep layer shear are supporting suprecell storms
which will have the potential for hail to the size of hail dollars
and 60 mph winds with the stronger storms. Marginal low level
shear is in place across central Missouri which will create a
limited tornado risk through mid evening with the more persist
supercells. Farther to the west and south low level shear
decreases and storm bases increase in height which will decrease
the tornado risk and limit it to central MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A cold front is spreading south
across the region this evening. Scattered storms are developing
along and ahead of the front. Once the sun starts to set the
storms should start to weaken and there are questions if they can
make it to the KBBG TAF site. So, have just included a mention of
thunder in KSGF and KJLN TAFS.

Overnight through Monday VFR conditions under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Wise






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