Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 280448
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The approach of upper level short wave energy and weak mid-level
isentropic upglide has resulted in a band of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms pushing northeast into portions of the
region this afternoon. One area of rainfall was occurring across
western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. A second area
was located across far south-central Missouri.

As we head into this evening, this initial activity will shift
northeast into central Missouri. We are expecting some scattered
development in its wake as that upper level wave inches closer to
our vicinity. While instability will be lacking a bit, deep layer
shear will increase into this evening. This will leave the door
open for an isolated strong to severe storm or two...especially
where bubbles of greater instability exist. Marginally severe hail
and wind would be the primary concerns along with locally heavy
rainfall.

By later tonight, we will have to watch activity back to
our west across the central Plains. There is a chance that this
convection grows upscale and pushes towards west-central Missouri.
However, it will be weakening with time as it moves into a less
unstable air mass.

That upper level wave will then move northeast across the central
Plains and then Corn Belt on Saturday. As this happens, we will
get some moisture pooling across west-central and southwestern
Missouri ahead of a weak surface trough. This will result in a
rather unstable atmosphere with MLCAPEs in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range.

The big question is whether or not storms will be able to
overcome a capping inversion. That upper level wave will actually
begin to depart the area in the afternoon with heights beginning
to rise. Additionally, low level convergence does not look all
that strong. Thus, we are thinking that any convection that fires
will tend to be widely scattered. Deep layer shear will be on the
weak side also, thus the prospects for severe are somewhat
limited. Nevertheless, we will continue to advertise a limited
severe risk due to the instability alone. Highs over most areas
should be in the lower to perhaps middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

There is then at least a limited potential that convection will
increase in areal coverage either Saturday evening or overnight
Saturday. Models seem to be hinting at the potential for a
convergence signature setting up around 850 mb from northeastern
Oklahoma into the Missouri Ozarks. If this transpires, we may see
elevated convection develop. Confidence remains low in this
scenario...but it is certainly worth noting.

Models then continue to bring short wave energy through the region
both on Sunday and Memorial Day. This will keep the threat going
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. If anything, there has
been a slight increase in thunderstorm potential for Memorial Day
as models bring a wave out into the Ozarks during peak heating.

We will then begin to see a slight transition towards the middle
and end of next week as global models dig a more substantial wave
into the northern Plains. This may eventually result in a cold
front dropping south towards the Ozarks. This will keep chances
for showers and thunderstorms going for much of the week along
with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A weakening area of
showers/thunderstorms n-nw of the taf sites should stay out of the
area. A weak front will slowly approach from the west late in the
taf period with south winds gradually veering to the southwest
with some moderate gusts at times after 15z. Showers/tstms could
again develop after 18z but coverage is expected to be limited.
Did include a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA


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