Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 022003
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
203 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0125 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

A strong upper level storm system was moving through eastern
Nebraska this afternoon. A 992mb surface low over NE Kansas was
creating gusty winds across the area. A wind advisory is in effect
until 6pm for western portions of the area. Wind gusts were
exceeding 40mph across this portion of the area. The dry slot of
the storm system was moving into the area and was creating a
significant fire weather risk. See Fire weather section below
regarding this in the Red Flag Warning. Surface cold front had
made it completly through the CWA ending precipitation chances.

Overnight, clouds will build back in as wrap around from the main
system moves overhead. Models are insistent that a small area of
sprinkles or flurries will develop and move across our northern
counties of Central Missouri. No measurable precip is expected.
With the cloud cover, temps will only fall into the low 30s.

Clouds look to hang around most of Wednesday, this combined with
northwest winds will only allow highs to reach the upper 30s.

Confidence in the forecast through Wednesday is high.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0125 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

The area will remain in a somewhat NW flow pattern through the
extended with minor shortwaves with limited to no moisture. Even
with the NW flow, high temperatures will remain seasonable in the
40s to 50s on Saturday and Sunday.

A large trough will develop across the Great Lakes and Northern
Plains on Monday. This looks to send a cold front with much colder
temperatures begnning Monday. There is some indication of light
rain or light snow during this period as well but confidence is
low in this time range.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Strong low pressure will pass north
of the area with a trailing cold front moving through. Strong
sw winds will occur today, then gradually veer to the wnw tonight
while diminishing somewhat. Post frontal lower clouds are
expected to spread in and will continue the mention of mvfr
ceilings at all sites late in the taf period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for counties along and west of MO
Hwy 13.

Strong sw winds and dry air spreading into the area from OK will
lead to an increased threat for accidental outdoor fire ignitions and
rapid spread. The mixing down of dry air will be the key for low
sfc humidity values this afternoon. The pressure gradient will
increase as low pressure over northern KS tracks east-northeast.
The low RH/high wind combination will be fairly brief this
afternoon over the western cwfa. Fire starts in recent days
indicate fuels are already dry and the limited rain we had earlier
this morning will not greatly affect grassland fuels.

Colder air will filter in for the west late today and tonight with
gradually diminishing winds.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-067-
     077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066>068-077>079-
     088>090-093>095-101>103.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...DSA


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