Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 140501

1101 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

The upper level ridge and surface high that have brought cloudy
skies, fog and warm temperatures to the region will remain in
control of the weather again tonight as a storm system begins to
dig into the southern plains on its way towards the Ozarks.

Increasing low level moisture making its way into the region on
the southerly winds will bring another night with low stratus
clouds and fog. With the increased moisture, the fog could be a
bit more dense than the last few nights.

The good thing with the current system, temperatures have been
unseasonable warm and are expected to be warm on Sunday as well.
Lows tonight will only fall into the lower 50s to upper 40s and
highs tomorrow should climb into the upper 50s to middle 60s. This
is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

A storm system will move across the southern Plains and lift
northeast across the Oklahoma pan handle towards the Great Lakes
region during the day Sunday through the day Monday. The system
will have a good negative tilt to it as it makes its way through
the Ozarks late Sunday evening and through early Monday afternoon.
There will be good deep layer lift available with the storm system
and moisture will be in place across the area, from the southerly
winds the last few days. What looks to be lacking is any
instability. Models generally agree with only a paltry 50-200j/kg
of cape will be available as the system moves through the Ozarks.
This might be enough for a few isolated rumbles of thunder, but
will be far from producing even a strong storm.

The system will lift east of the region late Monday night with
cool high pressure sliding south across the plains from Canada. A
brief period of quiet weather will occur Tuesday and Wednesday,
with temperatures more near seasonable norms.

The extended models at this point are having a difficult time
resolving the split upper level flow and what to do with
precipitation for the end of the week into next weekend. For now,
have included precipitation chances from late Wednesday night
through Saturday morning. However, confidence is on the low side
as far as amounts type and timing. If the precipitation develops
as indicated with the current models, precipitation would be
mostly in the form of snow with change over to rain or a wintry
mix as temperatures climb above freezing during the afternoons.
Definitely an interesting and complex forecast for the middle to
end of the coming week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

Significant area of clearing developed across much of the CWA
during the evening and affected all 3 of the TAF sites.
Stratus/fog is expected to build back into the area including the
TAF sites overnight and satellite shows that JLN will likely be
the first to regain MVFR/IFR conditions by the onset of the 06z
TAFS. SGF/BBG appear may take a bit longer into the overnight for
this to occur, but should happen with all locations heading into
the IFR overnight.

A strong upper level shortwave will lift in from the southwest on
Sunday with a surface low developing out in the Plains. Southerly
winds will strengthen out ahead of this low during the afternoon
with some gustiness possible at JLN and possibly SGF.
Showers will be possible late in the TAF period at JLN which will
spread to SGF by the end of the 06z TAFS.




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