Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
706 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

2330z obs indicate sfc low just south of grand forks. HRRR model
moves this low north this evening and toward the Langdon/Cavalier
area by 12Z Thu. Main rain area north of this low has shifted into
Manitoba with lingering rain along the Canadian border Pembina
east to Baudette. Otherwise dry south of there. So did tweek pops
for this faster rain ending and break in precipitation currently.
Line of storms in central ND moving east but HRRR indicates storms
breaking up some as they move east toward eastern ND overnight but
still enough of a risk for a few showers or isold storm to
continue low chc pops. Will continue to tweek pops and sky as
needed this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Main forecast challenge will be focusing on convective potential
thru this evening. As of mid afternoon, a surface low was located
over far southeast ND, surrounded by 60 dew points. Water vapor
imagery showed a nice short wave lifting northward through the
central Red River Valley. SPC meso page showed little or no bulk
shear in that area and relatively weak CAPE due to the lack of
heating today. However the non supercell tornado product
highlighted the area right around the sfc low, meaning if some of
the cells down there could take off they could produce some weak
funnels. However it seems like the stronger cells are a little
further south. They seem to be along a warm front, which extends
from the sfc low, down toward KAXN. This area managed to get some
temperatures up around 80 today and therefore a little more CAPE.
However these cells are moving NE and away from the richer CAPE.

A third area of development is back west of KBIS. There is some
sfc convergence there, with weak CAPE and a little better shear.
Most of the high resolution short term guidance shows the tstms
out over the FA now continuing to lift NE and staying on the weak
side. The storms back west of KBIS try to move eastward tonight
but should also weaken with loss of heating. Therefore with time
tonight most of the pcpn should move into southern Canada with the
echoes out by KBIS moving into the FA by early evening. Marginal
risk area is out of the FA on Day 2...with synoptic scale models
showing most of the FA staying dry. Areas along the Canadian
border may still see a little pcpn.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Looking ahead into Friday and Saturday, blocking to the east will
result in either SW flow or a southerly flow. This will keep some
pcpn chances in the area, mainly during peak heating hours. Hard
to nail things down much more than that.

For Sat Night through Wed...An upper low will be departing the
area early over the weekend, making showers and/or thunderstorms
likely in the far east Saturday night. Models showing a short wave
ridge move through Sun into Mon and we should see a break in
activity but zonal flow will keep a series of weak waves coming
across the Northern Tier, so low POPs will be throughout the Sun-
Mon timeframe. SW flow aloft returns by Tuesday, with low pressure
over western ND brining increased chances of convection for the
middle portion of the week. Overall an active period will continue
through the long term, however temps will drop back into the low
70s mid next week after a warm Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Variety of conditions likely. Surface low south of Grand Forks
with a more west wind at Fargo while east-northeast elsewhere.
Surface low to move north tonight as winds eventually turn
northwest or west in GFK and DVL and more southerly at TVF and
BJI. Then winds more westerly at all areas daytime Thursday. Cloud
ceilings variable but mostly mvfr into Thursday DVL, GFK, BJI and
TVF and flirting with VFR or MVFR at FAR once clouds return from
the west. IFR cigs psbl at DVL and BJI late tonight.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
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