Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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859
FXUS63 KFGF 191243
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
643 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Main story this morning continues to be the dense fog, which has
now moved into the highway 2 corridor east of Grand Forks. Have
expanded the dense fog advisory to include Fosston over to
Bemidji. Meanwhile, the fog appears to be thinning across the far
southern FA. Therefore may be able to cancel a few of the counties
across the far south in the next hour. Otherwise expect the fog
to slowly thin across the other areas through the mid to late
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

The main forecast challenge will be fog/stratus development and
how it affects the other forecast elements. Fog/stratus currently
extends across the southern FA, mainly south of a line from Valley
City to Fargo Moorhead to Park Rapids. There are some spots in
this area that have not seen the fog yet, but they appear to be
filling in. This area of fog has been lifting northward, so the
dense fog advisory area may have to be expanded northward even
more yet. What happens with this area of fog/stratus by morning
will then play into the forecast for the rest of the day and
tonight. Areas that hold the fog/stratus longer will stay cooler
today. Have gone with the idea that areas in the current dense fog
advisory will keep the fog through most of the morning. The Devils
Lake region should see the most sun today, while other areas see
more clouds. Guidance keeps the fog/stratus over the FA tonight,
but it should again be thicker east of the Devils Lake region.
Models continue to show the potential for some light drizzle or
freezing drizzle, so did keep that mention too. The exact pcpn
type will depend on road temps or treated versus non treated
surfaces.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Models show a little steadier pcpn arriving over eastern and NE
areas of the FA Friday into Saturday, as the anticipated piece of
500mb energy lifts northward. Seems like there is one first surge
of moisture Friday into Friday night, with a second one Saturday
into Saturday night. Overall, surface winds look fairly low
throughout, so the fog and stratus questions continue. With the
mild temps, pcpn type will also stay in question.

For Sunday through Wednesday...Split flow aloft remains over
North America with the northern stream over northern Canada and
the southern stream over the southern states. Long wave ridge
forecast to build over western North America in the southern
stream late in the period. Downstream long wave trough develops
over the Northern Plains.

The ECMWF has been trending faster and farther north while the GFS
has been trending faster and farther east. Will blend the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Tricky aviation forecast in regard to the fog and stratus.
However, since it now thinning across the far southern FA, think
it will lift in most areas by mid to late morning. Not sure if the
stratus will entirely go away, so more uncertainty with that. KDVL
should see the best conditions today. Think it will be more of the
same tonight into early Friday, with some drizzle or freezing
drizzle possible at all sites but KDVL. Did not mention it in the
TAFs at this point, as it is sometimes hard to differentiate it
from fog. Winds should remain southerly and on the lighter side
throughout.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ038-039-
     049-052-053.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ002-003-
     015>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hoppes
AVIATION...Godon



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