Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 032011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS THIS
EVENING IN THE EAST...CLOUD TRENDS THEN CONVECTION POTENTIAL
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NEXT
PRECIP EVENT SATURDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE EASTERN AREAS...AND COULD HANG ON MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE VERY SLOW TO ERODE IN ALL BUT THE FAR NW...AND COULD
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...NOT
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL TOO FAR.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST.
IT SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AS LONG AS THERE IS SUNSHINE WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR THU NIGHT...THE ECMWF DOES BRING IN SOME QPF FROM THE
WEST...BUT THINKING ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DRY UP BEFORE REACHING US
SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S FOR ALL AREAS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND PWATS WILL
RISE TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES IN THE WEST. SHOWALTERS WILL FALL TO
AROUND -2C ALSO...SO WILL MENTION SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE NW
FRI NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY FOR THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
IN PLACE PER PWATS NEAR 1.60 INCHES BY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS/PRECIP THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AT LEAST SOMEWHAT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT STILL HAVE TIME
TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START
THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS
MID-WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO THE 17-20C RANGE BY TUESDAY...WITH
SFC TEMPS LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 80F DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT...AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND SFC BOUNDARIES. WOULD EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE MON-WED
TIME FRAME TO BE DRY...THOUGH. THE PERIOD SHOULD BE WARM...WITH DAY
TO DAY TEMP TRENDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF SFC BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CEILINGS. EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY PROGRESSES ACROSS MN. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE...WITH
KFAR AND KGFK EXPECTED TO RISE INTO MVFR...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
WHETHER KBJI WILL RISE OUT OF IFR. TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR SKIES/INCREASE CEILINGS FROM THE WEST...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND
THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING OF CLOUD TRENDS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
REFINED. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT PRIMARILY KGFK AND KTVF THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.