Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The main challenge early today will be two separate cloud impacting the far western fringe of the forecast area
and another in the far east. Low level RH profiles suggest the
western deck will move slightly westward and diminish by early
afternoon. The eastern area of clouds is more likely to persist as
an upper low across continues to spin across the Great Lakes.
Generally uniform high temperatures across the region with readings
in the upper 50s/near 60 where the clouds take a bit longer to clear
out across the east while reaching the low 60s elsewhere.

Clouds should slowly clear in the east by evening as the low dips
southward and ridging builds into the Dakotas. Lows should be right
around normal values (low 40s) even with surface high pressure
passing near the international border.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Thursday-Friday...Dry and quiet conditions are expected for the end
of the work week as upper ridging continues across the central
CONUS. Increasingly breezy southeast winds with the surface high
pulling away from the area will contribute to temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday and possibly into the low 70s
for Friday.

Saturday-Tuesday...Dry initially transitioning to a more active
weather pattern. Models are in good agreement with this scenario,
but differ on timing. Upper ridging will transition to southwest
flow aloft as a deep trough approaches from the west. The potential
will exist for an inch or two of rainfall (extending into mid-week),
although ensemble spread is large and confidence with details is
quite low.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

As upper low moves away and drier air aloft moves in...will
continue to see eroding of clouds. But one band that has moved
sharply west into ern ND continues to do so and may reach DVL
overnight. Otherwise clear area underneath drying aloft Fosston-
Bemidji area should sink southwest as well. Net result is that
through 15z Wed cloud coverage at any one spot variable and
confidence low. Generally clouds MVFR and low end VFR.




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