000
FXUS63 KFGF 210241
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
941 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Not seeing much evidence that the echoes across the far south are
actually reaching the ground. However, Morris MN reported a few
sprinkles. Therefore added another hour or two of sprinkles across
the very far south. Rest of forecast looking fine.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Region to remain in broad cyclonic flow through the short term. In
the near term weak returns continue across the southern tier
counties weakening as they propagate east. Cigs remain in the mid
levels so will keep some isold pops the remainder of the afternoon
then dry. Have left the overnight hours dry so later shifts will
have to monitor late night pcpn trends associated with next wave.
With drier column will see minimums on the lower side of the 50s.

The next wave impacts the region Monday. Feature looks weak and
not a great deal of instability along and ahead of surface
boundary. High resolution model guidance spotty with pcpn with
fropa so left low chance pops going. Unfortunately clouds may
impact viewing the eclipse, especially across the north so will
have to monitor. Cloud cover will also have an impact on
temperatures so will keep highs generally in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Other than a few lingering showers Monday evening as an upper wave
departs, dry and quiet weather will prevail across the region for
the midweek period as upper ridging and associated surface high
pressure build in.

Models are in decent agreement moving the upper ridge eastward and
out of the area by Friday afternoon. They do differ, however, on the
specifics of the timing and location of any forcing mechanisms
providing the return of precipitation chances. Regardless, the tail
end of the work week and through the weekend look to be more active
than earlier in the week.

Slightly below normal temperatures to continue through the period
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Ceilings should remain VFR throughout. Higher level clouds will
spread into the area tonight, then they should lower into the mid
level range Monday. Any pcpn on Monday looks to be pretty minimal,
so only mentioned VCSH at KDVL and KGFK for now.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Godon