Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SOME POP CHANGES FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO
SLOW DOWN ADVANCE OF PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO SE ND/WCNTRL
MN. WENT ALONG WITH CHANGES. AGREES WITH RADAR AND LATEST HRRR AS
WELL. MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST THRU SE ND AS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT REMAINS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE RUN PUSHING IT SOUTH OF THE
FA WHILE THE NEXT KEEPS IT THERE. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT ADD MUCH
CONFIDENCE TO THE RAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO WILL
GENERALLY STICK TO FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR NOW (WHICH KEEPS IT
IN). AS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CUMULUS HAS BEEN THICKEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE IT HAS BEEN FADING OUT IN THE NORTH. LOOKS
LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN FOG THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...BUT ARE EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
ANY FOG FORMS TONIGHT IT MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT SURE EXACTLY
WHEN ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS EVEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DIFFER...SO WILL STICK WITH ITS ARRIVAL
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
12Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PCPN WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER...SO WILL GIVE THE LEAST WEIGHT TO
ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER WILL EXPAND PCPN CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH FOR THURSDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THERE. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ARRIVE LATE THU NIGHT IN THE NORTH BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHANCES.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET
ACTIVE...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1.5 INCHES...WITH MLCAPES RISING OVER 1500 J/KG
IN THE EAST SUNDAY. WE EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE VIGOROUS SFC
BASED STORMS AND POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVE AND FRONT. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY BY MONDAY THROUGH WED...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAFS. OF CONCERN IS AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE BISMARCK AREA THAT THE HRRR WANTS TO BRING A BIT NORTH
TOWARD DEVILS LAKE BY 11Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AT
DVL FOR THIS DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE 5-6K FT CIGS
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND HANG AROUND MOST AREAS
THRU THURSDAY. DID NOT INCLUDE SHOWERS AT FARGO AS COVERAGE AND
TIMING VERY QUESTIONABLE AS BEST CHANCE REMAINS SOUTH OF FARGO.
WINDS MAINLY SOUTHERLY 8 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE





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