000
FXUS63 KFGF 031839
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

STILL SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA BUT VSBYS
ARE ABOVE 3 MILES AND WEB CAMS SEEM BETTER TOO. WINDS ARE STILL
BRISK ACROSS THE KDVL REGION BUT THE LACK OF FALLING OR NEW SNOW
IS JUST MAKING FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW SO FAR. SEEING SOME BETTER
ECHOES MOVING FROM KBIS TO KMBG TO KABR SLOWLY MOVING THIS WAY SO
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FA. THE REST OF THE AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH INCREASE UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE THINGS COVERED WELL
SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FROM 21Z TODAY-12Z THU. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR 5 TO 9 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A BREAK IN ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
THEREAFTER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER QG FIELDS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 00Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE NORTH
VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW COULD BECOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY AT TIMES
IN A DEVELOPING TROWAL. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW OVERNIGHT NEAR INCREASING MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA. IN
ADDITION...BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME A PROBLEM IN THE VALLEY WITH
20 TO 30 MPH WINDS AT TIMES CAUSING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN
OPEN COUNTRY WHEN SNOW COMBINES WITH WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE
VALLEY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE SNOW PRODUCTION NEAR THE SLOW MOVING TROWAL ALOFT...PER GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

FOR WED NIGHT...SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXPECT SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 3 OR 4 INCHES IN TOWNER
COUNTY TO AROUND 1 FOOT NEAR BJI/PKD/WASKISH AREAS. THIS HEAVIER
SNOW BAND COULD SHIFT IN ANY DIRECTION...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE
VALLEY CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. IN
ADDITION...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO 30 BELOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. HOWEVER THE NAM AND GEM WERE THE SLOW SOLUTIONS AND THE
ECMWF THE FAST SOLUTION AND THE GFS A COMPROMISE. THE GFS BECOMES
A FAST SOLUTION AFTER 12Z SAT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. WILL BLEND
THE ECMWF AND GFS.

ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE PROBLEM WITH QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES. ECMWF MUST HAVE OPEN WATER IN THE MODEL FOR
LAKE OF THE WOODS. WILL REMOVE LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR
SAT. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SAT NIGHT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHWEST ZONES SUN AND NORTHEAST ZONES REST OF
THE PERIOD.

LITTLE CHANGE TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS RUN. TEMPS INCREASE A DEGREE FOR
FRI SAT AND SUN AND DECREASED ONE DEGREE FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

CIGS HAVE BEEN HOLDING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...WITH SCATTERED SNOW
FLURRIES DROPPING VIS DOWN TO THE 3-5SM RANGE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 1000 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND
SNOW BANDS COMING IN WILL DROP VIS DOWN TO 1-2SM AT LEAST IF NOT
LOWER. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCING VIS FURTHER. AT THIS POINT
DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 1/4SM OR LESS...BUT INCLUDED
SOME SITES GOING DOWN TO AROUND 3/4SM TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL KEEP
AN EYE OUT FOR LOWER VIS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...JR