000
FXUS63 KFGF 152334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CANADIAN RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWERS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DO EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING THIS EVENING...BUT WILL ADD SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM TOWNER THROUGH
KITTSON COUNTY. MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT ALSO
THINK THESE WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED FOR SUCH A SHORT PERIOD. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WX TYPE AS SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH AROUND 21Z. WILL GO WITH ISOLD
TSTMS FOR NORTHEASTERN ND WITH PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE RAIN
SHOWERS...INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDER AFT 21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MAIN JET IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER SASK AND IS MOVING EAST INTO
MANITOBA. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS REFLECTED OVER SRN PART OF CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BETWEEN IT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WY/SD. THUS...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE FA ATTM BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING OVER THE FA THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW ACROSS SRN PART
OF MANITOBA. EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN TO CROSS THE
NRN PART OF THE FA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY SO INCLUDED IN
THE GRIDS. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE JET ALOFT AND PERSISTENT ZONAL
FLOW...EXPECT STACKED LOW TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU MONDAY. THE
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS OUT BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUTTING FA IN RETURN FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARM ADVECTION PCPN
ALTHOUGH CHANCES SEEM SLIM. LITTLE BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AS REGION STARTS GETTING INTO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SW
FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 02Z. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DROP IN FROM CANADA LATE TOMORROW
MORNING FOR DVL/GFK AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR TVF/BJI. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH ON TIMING TO GO WITH PREDOMINANT GROUPS...SO ADDED VCNTY
SHOWERS ACCORDINGLY. BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MN SITES IN
THE AFTN HOURS. DO PLAN FOR ADDING PRECIP TO FAR AS EXPECT SHOWERS
TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER