Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260400
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR INDICATED STRONGER RETURNS WERE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS BARNES
AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER
WESTERN BARNES COUNTY. HIGHER REPORTS WERE OVER STUTSMAN
COUNTY...RADAR MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING A LITTLE. BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER GRAND FORK AND NELSON COUNTIES WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER TOWNER, CAVALIER AND PEMBINA
COUNTIES. SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING. WILL LOWER TEMPS COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE REST OF AREA ON TRACK WITH TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM MT NOSING INTO KS. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER STEELE, EDDY AND BARNES
COUNTIES. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
RADAR ESTIMATED AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND
WESTERN BARNES COUNTIES AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW. LATEST HRRR/RAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SNOW A
BIT THIS EVENIGN AND KEEPS MUCH ANYTHING MORE THAN 2 INCHES WEST
OF FCST AREA. MAIN SNOW SEEN ON RADAR MINOT-RUGBY AREA AND THIS
WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD JAMESTOWN THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST LIGHT SNOWS WITH OBS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA AND RADARS SHOW
SOME GENERAL VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEASTERN ND
AND NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT. ACCUMS HERE VERY LIGHT. FOR FARGO
AREA DOES APPEAR ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES IS WEST OF AREA
PERHAPS CLIPPING SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...BUT FOR THE CITY 1
INCH IS MORE LIKELY THAN 2. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
15-25 MPH SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW HAZARD SO PATCHY BLSN
IS GOOD. TEMPS DROP LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CLEARING
WORKS IN. CLEARING SPREADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WED NIGHT. QUITE COLD WITH HIGH AND ANY
FRESH AREAS COULD WELL SEE TEMPS 15 BELOW OR COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THURSDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THIS. GFS SHOWS QUITE STRONG 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TOO SO
LIKELY VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES COLD AIR MAKING
FOR GOOD FLUFF FACTOR. EXPECTING A QUICK 2-4 INCHES THU NIGHT
MAINLY NE ND/NW MN. ON FRIDAY LARGE DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR
AHD OF SYSTEM FOR FRI NIGHT...WITH GEM/ECMWF WARMING SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FCSTA REA UP CONSIDERABLY AND GFS COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE SYSTEM BY ANOTHER
CLIPPER SETTING UP TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY). THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS SNOW INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER AND HAS THE
SFC LOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BY 06Z SAT...WHEREAS THE EMCWF HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT SUPERBLEND SOLUTION USED
FOR POPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WHICH MAY BE TRUE BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE
BORDER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE AND WILL KEEP CONTINUITY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AS
WELL...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...EXTREMELY COLD FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP NEAR DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF EASTERN ND DUE TO SNOW. ELSEWHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
SHOULD HAVE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
     028-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




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