Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 060550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Issued at 1148 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

No changes at this update. Keep warnings and advisories as is.

UPDATE Issued at 959 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Surface low pressure was located between GFK and FAR and was in
reasonable agreement with the models. Surface low will more or less
park over the northern Red River Valley through noon Tue before
moving east Monday afternoon.  Most of the snow this evening has
been over Barnes, Steele, and Griggs counties with 5 to 8 inches.
Radar showing band of snow from Marshall to Griggs and Nelson
counties. Water vapor loop continues to show upper level jet on the
south and east sides of the system. Will keep advisories and
warnings as is.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Water vapor loop indicated upper level jet was moving into the
southern zones with a short wave over the southeast zones. Radar
indicated precip moving north into the area and about to move into
GFK. Will keep warnings and advisories going.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Very challenging forecast due to this being two distinct events, a
winter storm with heavy snow tonight followed by increasing winds
and blizzard conditions on Tuesday. As of right now, the sfc low
is down over eastern SD with the regional radars showing a band of
heavy snow over south central ND. Bismarck has already reported 4
inches of snow from this band. Models forecast this band of snow
to move into the Jamestown to Grand Forks corridor by 9 PM, then
into the northern Red River Valley overnight. Looking at warning
criteria snowfall in the now through 12z Tuesday time frame, with
not much wind. Added Lake of the Woods, northern Beltrami, and
northern Clearwater counties to the winter storm warning that was
issued earlier this morning. Later shifts will have to monitor the
tonight warnings and advisories and see if further expansion is

What is the difference for Tuesday...the strong northwest winds
kick in and the light snow lingers. Had a lot of discussion on
how to handle the transition from snow to wind and whether double
headlines were too confusing. However, the biggest impact from
this event will be the increasing northwest winds on Tuesday.
Want to get the word out now that people may wake up in the
morning and see the fresh snow, but little wind, and think things
are going to be fine. However, the northwest winds will kick in
through the morning and result in blizzard conditions fairly
quickly. How fast is yet to be determined, but tried to time it
into the Devils Lake region first around 12z, west of the Red
River by 15z, and east of the Red River by 18z. Think that this
blizzard warning will eventually need to be expanded further
southward during the day Tuesday, but this is a good starting
point. Otherwise, kept 00z Wednesday as the ending time for all
warnings and advisories, although it could continue into Tuesday
night as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

500mb cyclonic flow around upper low over Ontario to impact the
area with prolonged light snow chances through Wednesday and
Thursday with another 1 to 3 inches of snow possible. Max
temperatures will be in the teens on Wednesday and cooling into
the single digits by Friday as the center of the cold dome of high
pressure settles in. 500mb zonal flow develops by saturday with
temperatures rising back into the teens for weekend highs and the
return of snow chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

IFR conditions were located over the northern three fourths of the
Red River Valley. MVFR cigs were located over the far southern
Valley. Expect IFR conditions for much of the Red River Valley for
tonight and especially for Tue with snow and blowing snow. Some MVFR
conditions can be expected in the far south zones for tonight and
IFR for Tue.


ND...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ008-016-027-

     Blizzard Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ008-016-

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-

     Blizzard Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ006-007-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ039.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ038.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ002-003-

     Blizzard Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ001>004-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ017-023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ005-006-009-

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ001-004-007-



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