Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 291800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFERRED THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE 40-50KT TO MIX THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH PERHAPS
A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH.

ON THU...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR FRI/SAT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM ON SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION ATTM.

RELATIVELY ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US AND
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER
THAN THE GFS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED ZERO TO TWO DEGREES ON SAT...INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND LITTLE CHANGE FOR SUN AND TUE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THE GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. ANTICIPATE WINDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS AROUND 02Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027-028-030>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...TG



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