Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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308
FXUS63 KFGF 231457 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
957 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Isolated showers will continue through the morning and taper off
from west to east this afternoon. The latest radar echoes are
reaching the surface, but showers are very isolated with rain
totals of only trace amounts being reported. The latest high
resolution blends indicate clearing just a bit faster than
anticipated from the west today, so updated cloud cover and rain
chances to reflect this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Challenges for the day include clouds and weak shower chances
within shear axis of NW flow aloft. Radar continues to show a few
echos this morning with a sprinkle reported at DVL.

Short wave responsible for the windy Thursday across the FA is
currently over SW Ontario with the next potent wave spinning to
the south in northern Saskatchewan. Shear axis between the two
systems will move across the area today with PWats recovering to
near an inch. CAMs indicating a few quickly moving showers will be
possible mainly to the east of the Red River Valley throughout
the day. Mixing on model soundings will be near 850mb today with
20 to 25kts, much lower than yesterdays 40kt mixing from 700mb.
Should not need wind advisory but may see the DVL area near
criteria for an hour or two early this afternoon.

Cloud cover across the valley and to the east is expected to
begin to break up from west to east this afternoon. Some late day
sun should help temps into the mid 60s, possibly higher if clouds
break sooner.

Late tonight PoPs increase from NW to SE with the approach of the
next upper wave. A compact area of showers is expected with
forcing from the actual center of the upper low. Though placement
will need to be refined as it approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

For Saturday and Sunday the FA will continue to be influenced by
the NW flow aloft with well below normal temps for the end of
June. Saturday will be the cooler day with good agreement from
model guidance with the track of the upper low across the FA in
the first half of the day with a re-enforcing shot of cool
advection. A rather unseasonably cool day with showers and/or
clouds persisting on the backside of the upper low. With 925mb
temps in the 5 to 10C range will optimistically go with highs
near 60F. Sunday will be a bit warmer with 925mb temps rising 5 to
10C however shear axis will linger over the area creating shower
chances in the afternoon.

Monday through Friday...The extended period begins with an upper
trof over the Great Lakes and continuing to shift east, with the
upper ridge rebounding over the northern plains bringing warmer
temperatures and quieter weather through Wednesday.

By Wednesday, a frontal system is expected to cross the area
bringing chances for more showers or storms. As the front passes
late Wednesday night, expect some slight cooling and breezy
conditions to end the period, with scattered showers and some
thunder possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

MVFR CIGS continue to slide across the area this morning. NW winds
in the 15 to 25kt with gusts 20 to 30kts today. A few showers
possible in NW MN with MVFR CIGS SCT out from west to east this
afternoon. Overnight another round of showers moves in from NW to
SE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Hopkins/JK
AVIATION...JK



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