Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171753
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

No changes to the ongoing forecast. Convection beginning to
develop along a line from Devils Lake to the southeast to just
north of Fargo to south of Park Rapids. Will be watching this
activity grow in coverage and spread to the southeast over the
afternoon and evening. Given best shear remains along the southern
tier of counties in the forecast area with 30 to 40kts most cells
should be outflow dominate with 1 inch hail and gusty winds up to
60mph the primary threats.

UPDATE Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Per SPC morning update of adding the southern two thirds of the FA
into a marginal risk for severe storms will be updating the
wording in HWO. Given the environment with MLCAPE ranging
between 500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values up to 35kt,
expecting a multi-cell convective scenario to play out this
afternoon. With relatively low freezing levels, between 8000 to
9000ft, increased possibility of hail around an inch and
subsequent downbursts with winds up to 60mph seem to be the
primary threat with the stronger pulsating updrafts. Widespread
organized severe storms not expected, but isolated strong storms
with a severe storm or two is possible. Most areas will have the
potential for brief heavy downpours, small hail and some gusty
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Degree of rain chances main challenge through the short term.
Short wave crossing the northern rockies to dig some as it
propagates across the region today. Associated cold front will
drop through the fa today. By early afternoon boundary should be
through the northern third of the forecast area. Some diurnal
heating, modest instability, cape, and shear should aid in
development this afternoon. Based on timing of front best
coverage of shra/tsra will be across at least the south half of
the fa. Clouds and cold advection will limit temperature recovery
across the north to the 60s with warmer temperatures to the south.

Showers and T should continue into the evening hours across mainly the
south diminishing late evening as boundary sags south of region.
With cold advection continuing will see minimums in the lower 50s
with 40s across the north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A cool day Sunday with high temperatures in the 60s. Most areas
likely to be dry with best chances across the west closer to exit
region of jet streak dropping through canada.

stronger signal for showers will be later Monday/Monday night as
next wave drops through the Fa in persistent NW mid level flow.
Temperatures to continue blo average.

Split flow aloft develops over North America through the period with
the northern stream over central Canada and southern stream over the
northern states. Long wave trough over the Gulf of AK will move into
southwest Canada/Pacific Northwest. Long wave trough over the
Canadian archipelago will rotate into the Hudson Bay.

The ECMWF was a little faster and farther south than the GFS. The
GFS was trending faster than the ECMWF early in the period. Both the
ECMWF and the GFS were trending a little slower late in the period.
Will blend the models. Short waves are expected to move through Wed
and Thu.

Little change to high temperatures but were generally decreased a
degree or less for Tue, Wed, and Thu. No change on Fridays high
temps from yesterday package. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Not much difference from the previous set of TAFs. Overall winds
look to remain on the lower end. Models still indicating some low
end VFR or high end MVFR clouds along the highway 2 corridor
toward Saturday morning, which could affect KDVL/KGFK/KTVF. Not
high confidence in this occurring, so kept them in the low end of
the VFR range for now. Models continue to show the better
potential for afternoon thunder across the south (KFAR) along with
the better pcpn amounts. Therefore mentioned a thunder potential
at KFAR from mid afternoon into the early evening. Thereafter
coverage should decrease along with the thunder threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

General increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into the early evening then quickly diminishing into
tonight. Best thunderstorm chance will be impacting the FAR area
around 22-02Z. Otherwise expected SHRAs at other TAF sites with
broken CIGs lowering into the MVFR range overnight as north winds
bring cloud deck south from Canada. By morning stratus deck
impacting all sites with IFR CIGS possible in the east, BJI and
TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JH/Voelker
AVIATION...JK



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