Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

DIRTY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NEBRASKA TO NEAR BDE. A
CLEAR SKY WAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. RIDGE WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN MN BY MORNING WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE
FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LINED UP FROM FAR
NE MN THROUGH ERN ND AND INTO N CNTRL SD...WITH WINDS ACROSS N CNTRL
ND BEGINNING TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME MOSTLY CELLULAR ACROSS THE AREA AND ITS
EXPECTED DISSIPATION WILL BE A BIG FACTOR ON OVER NIGHT LOWS AND
FROST POTENTIAL. UPSTREAM...MID/HIGH CLOUD OVER ALBERTA HAS BEGAN TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SASK AND FAR NW MANITOBA. THE MODELED
TEMPS FOR CLOUDS DISSIPATING IN THE EAST...RIDGE MOVING OVER EASTERN
ZONES TONIGHT...AND WAA AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NW ARE BEST
REPRESENTED BY A BLEND OF HI RES ARW AND NAM DNG MODELS...AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALIZING UPPER 20 DEW POINTS AS LOWS TONIGHT...AND WITH THESE
FACTORS THINKING IS TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND THE
WEAK MIXING WILL LIMIT ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT OVER ROUGHLY THE NW
THIRD OF THE CWA. CU FIELD OVER MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY EARLY MORNING ABOUT THE TIME THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN CWA AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS WILL HELP
SET UP A FROST SCENARIO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. EXPECT SOME AREAS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPS TO
ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING APPRECIABLE SOLAR AND A WARMUP
TO MORE SEASONALLY COOL MID 60 TEMPS. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SASK AND APPROACH THE NW ZONES...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW WILL DROP INTO FAR NORTHERN VALLEY WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE PRECIP THAN THEY HAVE SHOWN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE IN
THE 03Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS NE ND AND NW AND N CNTRL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM DEPARTING LOW WILL
KEEP S POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE
AFTN SUNDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS AND NW WINDS WILL KEEP SUN A FEW DEG
COOLER THAN SATURDAY...WITH SOLAR INCREASING AND BRINGING MONDAY
DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL SEE A 500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS FASTER WITH 500 MB PATTER THAN ECMWF.
SO INITIALLY TUES-WED WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY GFS BRINGS THE NEXT 500 MB TROUGH FROM THE PAC
NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA WHILE ECMWF HOLDS TROUGH AND PRECIP TIL MORE
SO FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY.  USED ALL BLEND FOR POPS/WX THU-FRI...BUT DID
AFTER COORD WITH MPX/ABR TO GO DRY THURSDAY IN WCNTRL MN AS RETURN
FLOW AND ANY MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LIMITED MORE TOWARD CNTRL ND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VISIBLE LOOP INDICATED SCT CLOUDS WERE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HCO
TO BINFORD ND. CLOUD DECK BECOMES BKN TO OVC SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BDE TO PKD TO LIDGERWOOD, ND. EXPECT SCT DECK TO DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. EXPECT BKN-OVC DECK TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MT AND FAR NORTHWEST ND WILL
SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ030-039-049-
     052-053.

MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>003-005-
     006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




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