Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 120435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Issued at 936 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Breezy SE winds will continue tonight with highest velocities
adjacent and east of the valley. The continued mixing will keep
overnight lows in the 40s. Freshened up winds and hourly temps
through 18Z...overall no change to expect minimums.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Clouds tonight and temperatures will be the main forecast issue for
the period.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue, with the surface trough
moving from the Rockies into the central Dakotas by tomorrow
morning. Fairly breezy south to southeast winds will continue
tonight, keeping the boundary layer mixed. Clouds currently over
central MN will advect into our eastern counties later tonight.
The mixing and clouds will help keep temps in the 40s overnight,
with some 30s possible in the far northwest where winds will start
to diminish and less cloud cover will be available.

The surface trough axis will move into the Red River Valley
tomorrow, with a cold front behind it. Out ahead of the front, there
will be a decent thermal ridge with 925mb temps in the mid teens C.
The thermal ridge and good mixing along with plenty of sunshine
should allow highs again to reach the 60s across most of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Thursday night and Friday...The surface trough and cold front will
push quickly through the rest of the CWA Thursday night as an upper
level shortwave lifts into Canada. There will be a bit better
moisture as the front pushes into MN, so some light rain showers
will not be out of the question as the boundary approaches the Lake
of the Woods area. Impacts will be minimal and only a few sprinkles
are expected. High pressure will build in for Friday and winds will
not be as strong as the past few days, but temperatures will be a
bit cooler.

Friday night through Sunday...Looking into the weekend, a more active
weather pattern sets up as an upper trough digs into the Plains.
Weak upper level energy moves through late Friday night through
Saturday night, bringing chances for rain for most locations, and
even potentially some rain snow mix for locations along the
international border who will see near freezing temperatures late
Friday night and Saturday night. With cloudy conditions and the
upper trough passing through the Northern Plains, the weekend will
be quite cool with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s.

For Monday through Wednesday, the upper level pattern shifts to
northwest flow aloft. As a system passes to the north of the
forecast area, the overall forecast remains dry with near normal
temperatures for the Northern Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

The NW edge of an MVFR deck extending from SE MN into central MN
has moved into the BJI area and is fluctuating from SCT-BKN. Given
the low level flow, expectation is for predominant MVFR cigs
through most of the night, with models improving cigs aft 09Z.
Will add a TEMPO to acct for breaks but believe this will fill in
more as more low level moisture moves up from the SE. Wind shift
late Thursday with TVF/BJI indicating a low VFR cig around 4K
during FROPA. Breezy SE winds to continue across valley and
adjacent areas tonight.




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