Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200238

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Kept isolated showers in til about 04-05z in far nw MN. Mid level
showers continue in tvf-rox-hco region with a shower or two Cando
ND area. Otherwise toned down sky cover a bit as outside of shower
area skies are pretty sparse. Though have that one area of cloud
cover in ern SD trying to move north. Overall other than
monitoring the shower trend no changes needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

The main challenge will be convective chances Sunday into Monday.
Models are in pretty good agreement with this upcoming system
later this weekend.

For tonight, there will be a few showers and a rumble of thunder
lingering through 2z and it will be dry thereafter. Temps should
be above normal and it will be mild with southerly flow

On Friday, it should be dry with some slightly cooler/drier air
aloft advecting in from the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

For Sat, an upper ridge will build over the area at 500mb. This
will yield plentiful sunshine and with mid level temps warming it
should get to around 80 for most areas.

On Sunday...moist and unstable air will advect into the region.
PWATs will rise to around 1.5, with CAPEs over 2000 J/kg moving
into central ND later Sunday afternoon. There should be a band of
showers and storms that may quickly develop in the far west Sunday
afternoon then move east Sunday night. There could be strong to
severe storms with this system into Sunday stay tuned
for later statements.

Sunday Night-Thursday...
An upper level shortwave trough and surface boundary will move
across the region Sunday Night into Monday with an increasing low-
level jet enhancing moisture return ahead of the boundary. The
highest chances for showers and storms are expected during this

Temps should remain above average through early next week with
west/southwest split flow prevailing. Global models attempt to bring
a weakening upper low across the international border region during
mid week along with a weak sfc boundary, possibly with slightly
cooler temps. No strong precip signal is evident beyond Monday,
although have maintained some low pops through much of the period
given model differences.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

High based cu over the area generally scattered to broken in
coverage. Expect some dissipation overnight but still some
scattered clouds around. Scattered mid clouds Friday with a bit
less of a south-southeast wind.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...DK/Makowski
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.