000
FXUS63 KFGF 130249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

ONLY CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO INCREASE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS TEMPERATURE DROP SLOWING UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER. SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ACROSS THE FAR
WEST BUT AT THIS POINT JUST MID LEVEL CLOUDS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

CI BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER RIDGE AND SPREADING ACROSS FA FROM N-S.
ADVANCING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSURE MOST OF FA WILL BE OUT OF ANY FROST
THREAT. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHICH WILL BE THE LAST AREA
TO SEE ABOVE CONDITIONS. ALL THIS COVERED IN CURRENT FORECAST SO
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PCPN
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND THEN THE WARMUP STARTING ON
MON. WILL STICK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FOR THIS EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS TO SPREAD INTO
THE FA ALONG WITH SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP A LITTLE. WINDS WILL TAKE
LONGEST TO PICK UP IN THE EAST AND STUCK WITH COOLEST LOWS THERE.
PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS MODEL RUN.
GENERALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR WARM ADVECTION RELATED SHOWERS
UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN REALLY ONLY IN THE NORTHWEST
FA. GEM AND NAM REALLY DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH UNTIL THE WARM
ADVECTION MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MN MON MORNING. GFS HAS THE MOST
PCPN AND ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL IT MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST MN. ALL SAID NOT MUCH PCPN EITHER WAY WITH THE DRY
LOW LAYERS TO OVERCOME.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS WEST OF THE RED RIVER. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH PASSAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON WOULD GIVE PORTIONS OF THE AREA A WEST THEN NW WIND
WHICH WOULD HELP WARM TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEXT SFC LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH THE AREA MON NIGHT SPREADING MORE WARM ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. THIS COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

THIS SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUE. SHOULD BE
VERY MILD UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY AFTERNOON. PRETTY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH MODELS
INDICATING SOME VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE. THINK THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE KDVL REGION POSSIBLY DOWN THRU BARNES
COUNTY COULD SEE SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 MPH FOR A WHILE
TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT. STILL HAVE ICE ON DEVILS LAKE
AS WELL. THIS ICE MAY GO OUT DURING THE WARM DAYS MON OR TUE. IF
NOT THESE STRONG WEST/NW WINDS COULD CAUSE AN ICE SURGE ON THE
EAST/SE SHORES AROUND THE LAKE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. REST OF
AREA WILL ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS BUT THINK AT THIS POINT THEY
SHOULD BE IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT WED LOOKS A LITTLE
COOLER BUT DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK RIDGING WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (AND ACTIVE WEATHER). THE ECMWF
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS BRINGING IN THE MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION BEGINS THE SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE TOO SOON. HOWEVER...THE
TREND APPEARS ON TRACK AND WILL ADJUST TIMING WHEN MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR NORMAL VALUES...MAYBE A
BIT COOLER NEXT WEEKEND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD FROM N-S ACROSS FA TONIGHT.
ANY CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES FOR A PERIOD ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS WINDS BECOME
GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT RH WILL FALL TO AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY LOWER VALUES POSSIBLE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
ND INTO PARTS OF NW/WC MN ON TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE
DAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN...AND 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS NW/WC MN. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW LOW RH WILL GET. 12Z MODELS INDICATE MID 50S DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER WORKS ITS WAY IN. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS
THOUGH...NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT DEWPOINTS QUITE THAT HIGH WILL BE
ACHIEVED. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXED LAYER INCREASING TO
ABOVE 800 MB...HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR DOWNWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS...RH BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VALUES IF MORE MOISTURE
MIXES OUT OF THE SFC LAYER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE RED RIVER AT EAST GRAND
FORKS...OSLO...DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. RIVER STAGES AT DRAYTON AND
PEMBINA ARE CONTINUING A SLOW RECESSION...WITH STAGES AT EAST GRAND
FORKS AND OSLO FALLING MORE RAPIDLY. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER POINTS
ON THE MAINSTEM RED AND ON THE ND/MN TRIBUTARIES SHOW RECEDING OR
NEARLY STEADY LEVELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI