Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 200451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

POPULATED WITH OBSERVATIONS DATABASE AND ADJUSTED TO FIT FORECAST
OTRW NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF ISSUANCE.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS











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