Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 300855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TEMPERATURES (AND FROST THIS MORNING) WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES.
00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON SUNDAY.
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY.

AHEAD OF A BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
FORCING WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST AREAS DRY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SE ND
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES (NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON MONDAY). 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP SO TRENDED POPS
LOWER FOR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG
WAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AK FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MAKING FOR A FLATTENED REX
BLOCK LIKE PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

THE GFS AND ECWMF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT GFS WAS FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS
TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER. WILL PREFER THE
ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS ON TUE. GENERALLY ONE TO FIVE DEGREES
LOWER FOR WED AND ONE TO THREE DEGREE LOWER FOR THU AND FRI COMPARED
TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY
ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY ABOVE 15KFT AND WON/T MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK


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