Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020232
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMING A POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH.
THE NAM IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE UPPER WAVE...COLD AIR AND SNOW
ACCUMULATING POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND WOULD GIVE SOME
SNOW TO THE NORTH BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE ECMWF HAS NOT COME
IN YET TODAY...AND IT WAS THE FIRST TO PORTRAY THIS SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE SREF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH WITH SLOWER...MORE POTENT AND CLOSED 700MB
LOW. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ALSO BEHIND COLD FRONT. GIVEN IT IS
SO EARLY IN SEASON...MANY DETAILS TO IRON OUT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERHAPS AN EARLY SHOWER
IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WON/T GET TOO COLD AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST...AND THERE WILL BE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY THU AFTERNOON.

FOR THU NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES CHALLENGING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
850MB TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 0C IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z FRI...WITH
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z FRI. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH
50KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY 12Z FRI ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE DVL BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT IF SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH
ENOUGH. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...IF SNOW RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS OCCURRED ON
OCTOBER 4 2012 WHEN THERE WAS SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE NORTHERN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE VERY WINDY WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THE NAM DEPICTS A
DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW BAND THAT WOULD BE ALL SNOW ACCORDING TO
SOUNDINGS IN MOST AREAS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY
WARMER...WILL CONFINE SNOW MENTION TO THE DVL BASIN AND GFK AND
POINTS NORTH. THERE WILL BE NEARLY 50KT TO MIX THOUGH...AND IF
SNOW RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH WE MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
POTENTIAL. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR SOME AREAS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
THE EAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD GET COLD AND WE COULD HAVE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR SURE.

FOR SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL AFTER A FROSTY START.
THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
ON THE 12Z GFS AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH TODAYS 12Z ECMWF COMING
IN. SEE PREV DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS A
HUDSON BAY AREA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER LOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION. THIS ALONG WITH A CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE KEEPS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 AND
7...WHEN THE PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A SERIES OF
WAVES FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT POPS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE THE DAKOTAS REMAIN DRY. HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 30S, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE
PATTERN LIMITS ANY STRONG WARMUP FROM THE COLD AIR MASS COMING IN
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WITH WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG
THE 5000FT CLOUD DECK LINGERS. WENT WITH THE IDEA OF THESE CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. IF A DIFFERENT
TREND APPEARS WILL MODIFY THE TAFS. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS COMING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT KDVL. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
KGFK/KFAR AREAS AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...SO WILL ADD
THE HIGHER WINDS AT THESE TWO TAFS IN THE 06Z SET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON





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