Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260303 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Decreased temperatures and winds slightly based on latest obs
trends. Latest high res guidance continues to suggest low clouds
moving in overnight from the south for northwest MN and from the
south and west with some fog development in eastern ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Region to remain in split mid level flow with the fa in northern
stream sw flow. Surface ridging will shift east putting fa in col
area overnight. With weak flow guidance hinting at some fog
development overnight across the western fa. This likely will
hinge on cloud cover and right now models not handling current
cloud trends well at all. Clearing continues just west of the
forecast area and over all but a 50 mile swath from the red river
westward. Still feel that we will be able to erode this band of sc
leaving some ci tonight. With these optimistic cloud trends will
mention some fog west of the valley. Thermal profiles do not
change much overnight so minimum temperatures should range a few
degrees either side of freezing.

Tomorrow a wave lifts ne through the southern prairie provinces.
As it does a weak surface boundary will cross the forecast area.
With main forcing north of the border and surface forcing so weak
have low confidence on any pcpn with boundary passage. For
consistency did leave so isold pops across the DVL basin but for
the most part region will be dry tomorrow. Thermal advection
remains pretty neutral so degree of solar will impact
temperatures. Will hold with inherited temperatures with
uncertainty on cloud cover after today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Sunday night through Tuesday...A weak northern branch shortwave
trough moving through Sunday night will bring some clouds but there
doesn`t seem to be a consistent signal for precip so will keep dry.
Brief upper ridging sets up Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next
split trough, so dry weather will continue into early next week. The
GFS tries to bring in a backdoor front into our northeastern
counties Monday night but it is even that cold air advection is
fairly weak and think that temps will continue to be above seasonal
averages.

Wednesday through Friday...The next split upper trough begins to
move into the Plains Wednesday, with the northern branch wave
approaching the CWA. Continued to keep some rain across much of the
area for Wednesday into early Thursday, with snow mixing in at times
during the morning hours. Models diverge on Friday with the ECMWF
trying to bring the southern branch cut off low into the IA region,
with precip brushing our far southeastern counties. Will continue to
keep the blended low POPs for the end of the work week and into
Saturday. Temps will continue to be warm for late March with signs
of a cold front approaching by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

VFR conditions expected over the next few hours, except for low
level deck situated between KDVL/KGFK. High res guidance brings
IFR cigs in near KDVL and KBJI late tonight, or perhaps even late
this evening, and fills in the valley overnight. Expect cigs to
remain IFR, or perhaps even LIFR, through much of the morning,
then lift. S/SE winds will weaken to light and variable this
evening, remaining light through morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...BP


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