Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 030120
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
720 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

BEEN DOING A FEW UPDATES THIS EARLY EVENING. RADAR AND OBS
INDICATE A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WAHPETON TO PARK
RAPIDS AREA. PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATE A FINE FLAKE LIGHT SNOW...UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN GRANT COUNTY MN. SO UPPED POPS SOME IN THIS
AREA INTO THE MID EVENING. DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL SHRINK
THE NW SIDE OF THE SNOW AREA TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE MIX OF SOME VFR STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ENOUGH
COOLING DROPPING SOUTH SO THAT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD INDEED BE
COLDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.  NO CHANGES TO LOWS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

SNOW CHANCES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING HAVOC TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINS MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ND/SD BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IS REACHING
THE GROUND IN THAT AREA BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN BORDER COUNTIES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW
HAS DEVELOPED A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER THE FARGO AREA...BUT THINK
THAT THIS WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SOME SPOTS IN THE FAR SOUTH MAY SEE UP TO
A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...THE BIG SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BUT ANOTHER
WEAK CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS SHOULD BRING A WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS EAST TO 20S
WEST...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH A REINFORCING VORT MAX COMING DOWN FROM
NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. DO NOT AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL BE MUCH...BUT
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST BUT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH BY FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING SOME HEALTHY QPF VALUES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA.
THE ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO BEEN LEANING IN A MORE WET DIRECTION SO
INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR FRIDAY A BIT...BRINGING AN INCH OR SO
OFF SNOW ACCUMULATION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON A WARMING TREND WITH
LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE AND HIGHS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP
FOR THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL BRING
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION...WITH CENTRAL ND IN TO MID
TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF CLIPPERS BEGIN TO
TRANSIT THE AREA. AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER NW MN ON SAT...A
CLIPPER WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BRINING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM. COLDER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

FOR THE TAF SITES EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THINK ENOUGH DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTH TO KEEP ANY CIGS
IN THE VFR RANGE. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH 20 KTS OR SO SRN
RRV/WCNTRL MN CLOSER TO STORM SYSTEM IN IOWA/SRN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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