Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 222012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
312 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

For tonight the forecast concern is precip chances. Short wave
moving east along the International border this aftn with a sfc
low just southwest of Williston ND. This system will move east
tonight with the surface low a tad south of due east to near Fargo
around 09z and into central MN by 12z Sun. Most of the saturation
for rainfall will remain just north of the International border
for most of the event...but some models such as ECMWF does start
moving precip area a bit south of due east into more NW MN late
tonight. Thus overall highest qpf likely nr a Brandon Manitoba to
Morris Manitoba to Roseau line. with southern edge nr a DVL-GFK-
PKD line. Good upper level divergence and 800-850 mb frontogenesis
with the system so narrow band of higher qpf certainly psbl closer
to the half inch range but most areas 0.10 to 0.25 inch.

Winds to switch to the north behind the sfc low over ern ND
overnight and this will likely drag down some MVFR cigs.

The upper level wave moving east across northern MN on Sunday
morning. The far northern Red River Valley east into the Lake of
the Woods region may see some rain Sunday morning from this
feature. Most of the area should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy
skies on low level clouds move south on the backside
of the surface low moving east through the Twin Cities area Sunday

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The long term period starts off with a surface high that will
move into the area on Sunday night. Have gone a bit cooler with
lows Sunday night...closer to MOS the high will be
slowing drifting through the region. Some low clouds/precip in the
north may help keep temps up a bit in that area.

Upper level ridging will then move into the region on Monday...with
light return flow at the surface making for a pleasant day. On upper wave will pass through the NE/SD and southern ND
area. Some light rain will be possible across the area...mainly in
the south. Another wave will quickly follow across the north on
Wednesday...bringing another shot of rain to that area on Wed/Wed

Another upper ridge will follow the mid week upper ridge...bringing
drier and possibly warmer temps for Thursday...and perhaps the south
Friday. Models diverge on when to bring the next upper wave through
the region...either late Friday or Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions at TAF locations through 06z Sun with south winds
turning southeast and then east and eventually north overnight
into Sunday morning as low pressure moves through. Any rain
expected to stay along the Canadian border tonight and north of
TAF sites. Issue late tonight into Sunday are ceilings as short
range models indicate some MVFR cigs spreading south behind the
system. Kept that idea for the TAFs and seems reasonable. Brief
IFR cig late tonight in cool advection DVL region.




LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.