Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 280107
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
807 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

GOT A REPORT BETWEEN THE GFAFB AND KDVL OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS. KJMS HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTING SOME FZRA
AND FOG. SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ARE REPORTING
FOG. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS BY THEN. AREA OF SNOW FROM KFAR SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO
SHRINK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AT KFAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES CEILINGS OR FOG. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER OUR FAR WEST. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AT KDVL AND MONITOR TO SEE
IF OTHER SITES NEED THEM WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS LOOK PRETTY LOW
TONIGHT BUT INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN ON SAT MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.