Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201158
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
658 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees warmer today
depending on location. The warmest highs could be reached in the
low 80s near Elkhart, while around 70 may be more probable under the
upslope surface wind modified stratus clouds which will again
persist the entire day from Dodge City to Hays. The main wave of
precipitation exited the area last evening, and with upper ridging
developing, precipitation should not be expected today. Light
southeast winds will continue as high pressure remains anchored
over the Upper Midwest for another day. Between 18 and 21 UTC
clouds should begin to see some breaks, based on NAM forecast
soundings and their saturated profiles. However, the clouds return
with even thicker layers by what appears to be good moisture flux
in the boundary layer toward midnight and beyond. Models have
indicated at times QPF which from pattern recognition looked like
mid level warm advection showers/or even weak unorganized elevated
TSRA as the atmosphere becomes less stable. No other significant
forcing is present and pops are very low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The dryline and/or the easterly upslope flow ahead of the dryline
with increasing dew points may become a factor for storms heading
into Saturday afternoon. NAM seemed to develop storms and drive
them south along the moisture axis into Oklahoma in the evening.
At a minimum, a decent setup for storm initiation should be in
place even if not widely organized. Models indicate the best
chance for more organized widespread severe is to the north and
south of the DDC CWA, however the parameters cannot rule out any
threat with respect to severe for Saturday. Sunday will be similar
although the upper storm system from the west will be drawing
closer placing western Kansas in a better broad lift environment.
A slight risk for severe is highlighted for a much larger region
of the High Plains including all of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The persistent stratus will continue through the late morning
hours. Ceiling will finally rise above MVFR late morning to
midday, however it will build back in late tonight as even more
low level moisture works its way north from Oklahoma. No major
wind shift is forecast through the period, with south to southeast
winds prevailing at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  55  81  63 /  10  10  30  20
GCK  72  54  85  62 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  79  54  87  58 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  76  55  86  62 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  67  54  76  61 /  10  20  20  20
P28  69  56  79  62 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid



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