Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241125
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

A shortwave trough disturbance rotating around the base of an upper
low over Wyoming had set off an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the central High Plains earlier tonight. This precipitation
continues to move east through western Kansas but has diminished
in intensity or dissipated altogether early this morning. An undular
bore had pushed east from the northwest Kansas precipitation and
had set off a few showers in the Hays/Russell area. Given current
radar trends, have lowered or dropped precipitation chances across
southwest Kansas through the rest of the early morning.

As the upper system continues east today, a surface trough will
push east through western Kansas. Drier air moving in behind the
front will bring any thunderstorm chances across western Kansas to
an end today. The front will become stationary across
central/south central Kansas later this afternoon. Moist southerly
flow ahead of the trough will bring low 60s dewpoints into central
Kansas this afternoon. With strong afternoon heating, the atmosphere
along and east of the trough will see significant destabilization
with CAPE values around 2000-2500 j/kg. A cyclonically turning
wind profile with 50+ knots of 0-6km bulk shear will be favorable
for supercell thunderstorms. Parameters look favorable for large
hail on the order of tennis ball to baseball size along with
damaging winds and the possibility of a few tornadoes.
Thunderstorm initiation should be around or after 3 pm and in the
Stafford to Medicine Lodge and Coldwater area. Storms that develop
should move off fairly rapidly to the east. The threat for severe storms
along the Highway 281 corridor will diminish fairly rapidly by
early evening. A weak cold front will push into western and
central Kansas later tonight. There is some small potential for
fog developing east and southeast of Dodge City later tonight
behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

After a quiet period on Monday and Monday night, there will be
another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of
the region by Tuesday afternoon. Another long advertised upper low
will drop into the Great Basin on Monday and move toward the
northern and central Plains. A shortwave trough rotating through
the base of the upper low will swing out into the central Plains
on Tuesday with the entire system taking on a negatively tilted
configuration. A developing warm front will be lifting north
across western and central Kansas during the day while a dryline
pushes east across southwest Kansas. These features will be the
focus for severe thunderstorm development, with large hail and
tornadoes possible. The GFS and ECMWF move the warm front to a
position along or north of I-70 by Tuesday afternoon and move the
dryline into south central Kansas again. There is still some
uncertainty about the model solutions and how far these features
will move during the day with obvious impacts on the location of
severe weather. At this time, will continue to show that potential
across my northern and eastern counties.

Somewhat cooler weather with highs mainly in the 60s will spread into
the central High Plains for Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front pushes
through. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase again by
late Thursday night and Friday as yet another upper level disturbance
moves out of the western states toward the central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail today with decreasing mid level
cloudiness. Winds will generally be from the southwest throughout
the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  49  78  53 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  80  46  77  50 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  80  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  83  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  80  48  76  51 /  10  10  10  30
P28  82  55  81  57 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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