Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171820
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave digging
southeast out of the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains
tonight, ushering a strong cold front through western Kansas and
bringing an outside chance for precip to portions of western
Kansas. Based on model soundings, much drier air will remain
prevalent in the lower levels as a westerly downslope flow
persists across the area behind an advancing dryline in central
Kansas. However, a strong +130kt upper jet and a band of H7 post-
frontal frontogenesis may be enough to support a few sprinkles, or
a even a slight chance for light rain across west central and
central Kansas late tonight where a modest amount of upper level
moisture associated with the shortwave will be present. At the
very least, mostly cloudy skies can be expected.

Strong northerlies will develop late tonight in wake of the
frontal passage, allowing colder air to surge into western Kansas
lowering H85 temperatures to near 0C across the region. Considering
increased cloud cover may curb how far temperatures drop tonight,
look for lows down into the 30s(F) across west central Kansas to
the 40s(F) in south central Kansas. Highs may struggle to reach the
50s(F) Saturday afternoon with the mid to upper 40s(F) expected in
west central Kansas as surface high pressure moves southeast
across the Western High Plains into western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A strong cold front will move across the region early Saturday
morning. Strong northwesterly winds are expected in the wake of
the front. Much cooler temperatures / widespread 50s / still look
on track in the forecast. If there were to be any precipitation
will would be across the northern zones. There maybe a few
sprinkles further south, but the airmass is fairly dry, so am not
anticipating anything major. Sunday morning looks to be on the
cool side as high pressure and light winds prevail across
southwest Kansas.

Beyond Sunday, the pattern looks very quiet with continued
northwesterly flow aloft and a few trofs with dry fropas. High are
forecast to range in the 50s and 60s. Pops will remain very low
with no appreciable chance of precipitation as we head into the
middle portion of the upcoming business week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Saturday
morning. West-southwest winds 15 to 25kt will persist across
southwest and much of central Kansas through mid to late evening as
a dryline continues to edge slowly eastward across central Kansas. A
cold front will then push through western Kansas late tonight
turning winds northerly 20 to 30kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  40  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  37  50  26 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  80  37  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  83  38  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  78  39  50  26 /   0  20  10   0
P28  83  43  55  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson



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