Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 292143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
343 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The southwest Kansas region will remain in a low level northwest
flow regime through Wednesday. In fact, Wednesday will be nearly
identical to today with respect to temperature and winds (both
direction and speed). Wednesday will be just a touch warmer with
some modification of the polar airmass and also slightly drier
with dewpoints falling to the lower to mid teens by afternoon. A
sub-synoptic scale mid level vorticity lobe rotating south through
Nebraska will be responsible for increase low to mid level cloud
tonight, but as this passes early Wednesday, skies will rapidly
clear out again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The early to mid periods (through the weekend) of this Long Term
forecast have not changed much from the previous forecast thinking.
The ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS in closing off a mid
level cyclone deep into Mexico by the early weekend. The southwest
flow/warm conveyor belt sector of this system is still forecast to
make a push up into the Texas Panhandle, perhaps up to the southwest
Kansas border in the Friday Night through early Saturday period,
however whatever precipitation shield makes it clear up to our
latitude will dissolve as it enters a much more hostile environment
with confluent mid level flow and a rather anticyclonically curved
jet core centered to our south across Oklahoma. The SuperBlend
starting point still put in some small POPs in the south, but the
QPF/SnowAmt grids will remain very scant. No high impact, or even
moderate impact winter weather is anticipated with this weekend
system as just about the entire precipitation event will remain
across the Southern Plains.

We then look upstream for the second half of the weekend, and what
we will be watching for is the evolution of the first bitter cold,
arctic airmass currently over interior Alaska as it is forecast to
expand and migrate equatorward through western Canada. At D+6
(Sunday Night/Monday Morning), all three major global spectral
deterministic models show a large extent of -20C or colder arctic
air (at 850mb) expanding southward from the western Canadian boreal
forest into the Canadian Prairies of Alberta and Saskatchewan. All
the models also agree on an intense equatorward nosing upper jet
from just off British Columbia into the west coast of the CONUS.
This is a very favorable pattern signal for the aforementioned
arctic air to plunge down the High Plains of the central CONUS with
substantial density gradient enhancement. Details, of course, will
be ironed out in time, but there is too much signal to ignore
regarding the potential for a rather significant arctic air
intrusion into the northern and central Great Plains (including
western Kansas). What we really don`t know, and will not know with a
reasonable degree of confidence for a few days, is a high or even
moderate impact winter storm affecting western Kansas. Granted, the
12Z runs of the ECMWF and the GFS both show rather impressive
agreement for D+8 regarding vigorous cyclogenesis along the arctic
boundary, but the reader/end user must be reminded that Day 8 model
output has enormous error typically on the scale of states when it
comes to mid latitude cyclone tracks.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

There will not be much change over the current state of the
aviation weather through the forecast period. No wind shift in
direction is forecast, and daytime wind speeds on Wednesday will
be about the same as today, peaking at 18 to 24 knots by midday to
early afternoon. Low to mid level clouds moving in from northwest
Kansas will reach southwest and west central KS terminals, however
ceilings are expected to remain above 3000 feet.


DDC  25  49  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  48  18  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  47  21  46 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  24  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  26  45  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  51  25  52 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.