Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261805
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AS LOWER/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ANY DEVELOPING STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING. MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OUT
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER ALONG WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGESTS A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. BASED
ON NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS, INCLUDING FAVORABLE 0-6KM
SHEAR, AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE WARMER AIR MASS SETTLED
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY
DOWN INTO THE 70S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER 60S STILL POSSIBLE
IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE MONDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT
AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 100F MONDAY AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE WILL BE LITTLE EXPECTED OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROPERTIES THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY, BEFORE THE REGION BECOMES
INFLUENCED BY THE NEXT PACIFIC SOURCE SURFACE HIGH. EVEN THEN, THE
GFS CONTINUES TO ONLY INDICATE BRIEF REDUCTION IN THE LAYER MOISTURE
AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOME FLATTENED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
HE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH RAPIDLY RETURNING  AIR PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TO THE NORTH, WHILE MODEL PWAT`S CONTINUE AROUND 1.5"+ ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DODGE CITY WARNING AREA WELL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
BROAD UPPER NORTHWEST  FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR EVENING/OVERNIGHT  THUNDERSTORM  DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET CYCLE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH  THE GFS IS HINTING AT
THURSDAY  AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. IN THE MEANTIME, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD
PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INDEPENDENT OF TIME OF DAY,
PROVIDING A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID TO
LATE EVENING. KGCK, AND LATER KHYS, COULD BE AFFECTED WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 102  74 100 /  40  10   0  50
GCK  70 100  73  98 /  50  10  10  20
EHA  70 101  72  97 /  50  10  10  50
LBL  72 102  73  98 /  40  10   0  50
HYS  72 102  75  99 /  50  20   0  30
P28  75 102  75 100 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-066-081-
090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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