Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC THIS MORNING, AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS DIGGING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHARP RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
140 W. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED IN NORTHWEST IOWA,
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CYCLONE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK TROUGH, WHILE WESTERN KANSAS WAS FREE
OF CLOUDINESS. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE WESTERLIES EXTENDED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL ALBERTA,
AND A SURFACE CYCLONE WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST MANITOBA. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
CENTRAL WYOMING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN WISCONSIN COVERED MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
RICH MOISTURE WITH H8 DEWPOINTS NEAR 15C AND H7 DEWPOINTS HIGHER
THAN 5C WAS EVIDENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
FLOWING THROUGH WEST TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WERE WARM IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H7 READINGS IN EXCESS
OF 8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
COLUMN ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS REMAINS DRY WITH NO LIFT ANTICIPATED.
LEE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS. ATMOSPHERIC MIXING UP
TO AROUND 750MB WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO BE FELT ACROSS
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER LATE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. 850MB TO 700MB
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT 00Z MONDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE LATE MONDAY OVER FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. BASED ON THE 21Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING COULD BE SEVERE. AT THIS TIME
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS MONDAY EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME BASED ON
WHERE THE NAM AND GFS PLACES THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THIS FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. AS THIS
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN KANSAS MID WEEK AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP/DEEPEN OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK AS THIS
NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S BY LATE WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO UTAH BY MONDAY
MORNING, AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 050-060 WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
SUNSET BUT WILL REDEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SPREAD INTO KANSAS SUNDAY, AND
THIN SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 300 CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT AND INCREASING
AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  59  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  84  58  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  83  58  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  84  60  84  60 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  84  60  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
P28  85  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUTHI



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