Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 151934
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014
...Update to short term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
With comparison to last night, fairly "mild" lows are expected tonight.
Really, these values are close to climo. Expecting mid to upper 30sF
across the western zones to around 40F across the central and eastern
zones. There will be some high level clouds drifting in from the NW,
but no other significant weather impacts expected. S/SW winds of 5
to 20 mph expected through the overnight.
A frontal passage is expected tomorrow. Given the dry low level atmosphere,
no precipitation is expected during the short term period. There will
be mid to high level clouds, but that is about it. A gradient of temperatures
with 60sF across west-central Kansas to lower 70sF across south-central
Kansas is expected. No anticipating any fire weather concerns due to
marginal relative humidities.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
A cold front will move through western Kansas Wednesday due to an
upper level shortwave moving through the Northern Plains. Winds will
generally be from the north with the exception of south central
Kansas where they should remain ahead of the front most of the day
with southerly winds. Highs Wednesday are forecasted to range from
the lower 60s across west central Kansas where the front will move
through early to lower 70s across south central Kansas where the
front is not expected to move through until late in the day.
Another upper level shortwave is progged to move through the Central
High Plains Wednesday night into Thursday bringing increased clouds
with a chance of precipitation. This precipitation will start out as
rain showers for the first part of Wednesday night then change over
to snow from west to east as the night progresses. As of now, areas
south and east of Liberal to Larned look to remain above freezing
with only rain showers expected. Strong northerly winds and cold air
advection will continue Wednesday night into Thursday with lows
ranging from around freezing across west central Kansas to lower 40s
across south central Kansas. Highs Thursday are anticipated to range
from the upper 30s across much of the area with the exception of
south central Kansas where 40s will be possible. In fact,
temperatures across some places may remain steady or only rise a few
degrees throughout the day. Snow totals through Thursday afternoon
currently look to range from 2-4 inches across the I-70 corridor
with lesser amounts farther south. The counties across the Oklahoma
border and south central Kansas may not receive any snow at all.
Clouds will decrease in coverage Thursday night with mostly clear
skies expected on Friday. This is due to an upper level ridge
building above the Plains. Winds will shift back to more of a
southerly direction during this time frame. This will be short lived
as an upper level shortwave moves through the Southwest United
States and Four Corners Region Friday then into the Central Plains
on Saturday. Clouds will be on the increase Friday night as this
system approaches with a chance of thunderstorms Saturday into
Saturday night. Most models suggest this system to exit the area on
Sunday with the exception of the ECMWF that brings wrap around
showers to the area throughout most of the day. As for temperatures,
highs look to reach into the 60s Friday then in the lower 70s
Saturday and Sunday. Lows Friday morning look to dip to around 30
degrees. Lows Saturday and Sunday morning in the mid to upper 40s
with the exception of south central Kansas where lows in the lower
50s will be possible Sunday morning.
The remainder of the extended period looks dry with upper level
ridging building across the Rockies and southerly winds at the
surface. Skies should be mostly clear. Highs Monday and Tuesday look
to be in the 70s with lows around 50 degrees.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Southerly/southwesterly winds 10-20 kt
becoming northerly 18-25 kt with a frontal passage tomorrow morning.
No reduction of flight category expected with the front.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 68 37 38 / 0 0 60 60
GCK 37 64 36 36 / 0 0 60 60
EHA 39 65 37 40 / 0 0 60 60
LBL 37 67 39 39 / 0 0 60 60
HYS 40 67 36 37 / 0 0 60 60
P28 40 73 44 47 / 0 0 60 70