Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210605

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
105 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Dry conditions are likely through early this evening as a weak westerly
flow aloft prevails during the period along with a lack of low/mid level
instability. However, an outside chance for precip exists late tonight
as short range models indicate a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting out
of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains. Although any instability
will remain fairly minimal, a developing easterly upslope flow combined
with a strengthening westerly flow aloft may be enough to support isolated
areas of light rain across portions of western Kansas, generally after
midnight. Based on weak QPF signals, little if any appreciable rainfall
is expected.

A broad surface high across the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest
will help usher cooler air into the high plains today with H85 temperatures
dropping well into the single digits(C) across central and much of southwest
Kansas this afternoon with near 10C in extreme southwest Kansas. Considering
increasing cloud cover during the period, look for highs only up into
the 50s(F) across central and portions of southwest Kansas this afternoon
with the lower to mid 60s(F) still expected in south central Kansas
and possibly extreme southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border.Lows
tonight are expected down into the 30s(F) across west central Kansas
to the 40s(F) in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Mostly cloudy skies are expected through mid week as upslope flow
continues across western Kansas. Winds will initially be from the
east Tuesday night, then shift to more of a southeast direction
Wednesday. There will be a slight chance of light rain or drizzle
Wednesday through Thursday morning, but this will be dependent on
how thick the stratus deck is. Meanwhile, a large upper level low
will move into the Desert Southwest Wednesday then eastward into
the Rockies Thursday. This will enhance lift across western Kansas
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Thunderstorms look to
develop by late afternoon Thursday, first across far western
Kansas, then spread eastward Thursday evening into the overnight
period. These thunderstorms should move out of the area by Friday
morning. However, more precipitation is anticipated Friday into
Friday night as moisture wraps around this storm system. Strong
winds will also be a factor with this system with southerly winds
Thursday shifting to a northerly direction Friday into Friday
night. Another storm system looks to move into the area by early
next week but timing and confidence is low at this time. As for
temperatures, highs Wednesday look to generally be in the 50s with
the exception of along the KS/CO border where lower 60s may be
found. We see one day of highs in the 70s Thursday before dipping
into the 60s for the remainder of the long term forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through late Tuesday
afternoon. Northeasterlry winds 10 to 20kt will persist through
Tuesday afternoon as surface high pressure remains across the
Northern Plains.


DDC  46  57  37  59 /   0   0  20  10
GCK  43  57  36  63 /   0   0  20   0
EHA  45  63  38  69 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  46  62  37  66 /   0   0  20  10
HYS  43  57  35  53 /   0   0  30   0
P28  51  62  41  59 /   0   0  20  10




LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.