Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291121
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
621 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD LIES AHEAD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE, AND CHANCES  FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST  AT LEAST
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. A WEAK PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE SIGNAL IS MOVING
THROUGH THE  CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT,
ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PANHANDLES INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. THE RELATIVE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR, AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPES SHOULD RELEGATE THE STORM
INTENSITIES  WELL BELOW ANY SEVERE LEVELS. THE RELATIVE LAYER
MOISTURE/PWATS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE OT AT TIMES LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS, AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED
AREAS COVERAGE AND AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL  STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG AN UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS, AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT INT HE SURFACE DEW POINT MAKING THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD NOR EXCEED THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND GOING
FORWARD. HOWEVER THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NOT EXCEEDING
SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY.  THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SUPPORTS GENERAL; NORTHWEST
SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE WEEKEND FORWARD AS
THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAY BECOME SPLIT BETWEEN THE
WEAK FLOW COLORADO DAILY CONVECTION AND THE BETTER SUITED IMPULSE
DRIVEN MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DECREASING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF
A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  64  86  65 /  50  40  30  30
GCK  83  63  86  64 /  40  20  30  30
EHA  81  65  86  65 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  83  66  87  67 /  60  50  30  30
HYS  85  63  86  64 /  10  20  20  20
P28  88  67  88  67 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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