Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160602
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

A drier pattern will continue today through tonight as a west-
southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains
during much of the period. A dry air mass will remain settled
across western Kansas despite a southerly flow quickly returning
to the high plains this afternoon on the backside of a departing
surface high across the Central Plains. Precip chances will remain
absent across the area through Friday night. Surface high
pressure will move across eastern Kansas today reinforcing the
colder air mass already moving into western Kansas, keeping H85
temperatures down around to just below 0C. Expect highs pushing
the lower to mid 40s(F) this afternoon with the warmer temperatures
in extreme southwest Kansas, particularly if enough sunshine
breaks out. Highs may only reach the upper 30s(F) in central
Kansas. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) across central Kansas
Friday night with the lower to mid 30s(F) likely in extreme
southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

The cool air won`t be around long. Southerly flow returns late
Friday afternoon as the aforementioned high pressure moves east.
The upper level flow becomes zonal Friday evening ahead of the
next trough, allowing for short-lived lee cyclogenesis to form
and then move east on Saturday along with the upper level
shortwave. This will shift wind to the north Saturday morning,
then back to the south Saturday night. Temperatures will reach
into the upper 50s/lower 60s on Saturday with wind blowing as a
typical Kansas windy day. Upper level wind becomes zonal again on
Sunday with lee cyclogenesis strengthening in eastern Colorado.
This increased pressure gradient will create strong southwesterly
wind gusts on Sunday. Temperatures will to reach into the 70s.
Due to the high temperatures, dry ground, strong wind and low
relative humidity, fire weather will likely be a concern on both
Saturday and Sunday.

Monday the next cold front comes through ahead of a positively
tilted upper level trough. Long-range models are showing this
will bring good moisture to the north and east of us. Once again
leaving our area dry.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be dominated with cool high pressure,
with lee troughing building on Thursday. Models are showing the
next big system for our area coming through next weekend. It`s
still too early to sort out it`s exact path, but will keep you
updated as it unfolds. Our region needs rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of all TAF sites overnight
then begin to improve toward daybreak as low level stratus begins
to slowly lift. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF
sites through early Friday evening. Gusty north winds in excess of
20kt will gradually decrease through early Friday morning and
becoming light and variable by mid day Friday as surface high
pressure shifts southeast out of the Dakotas into the Central
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  42  27  60 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  20  42  25  59 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  23  45  32  60 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  25  43  27  60 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  19  40  25  57 /  20   0   0   0
P28  27  43  30  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...JJohnson



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