Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271802
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
102 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A stationary front over northern Oklahoma was reinforced by
convective outflow early this morning, but was beginning to
advance slowly northward as a warm front into the southern Kansas
counties this afternoon. An upper level trough over the Desert
Southwest will gradually move eastward, slow down and then weaken
over the western high plains through Wednesday. Abundant low level
moisture will be in place in advance of this trough due to weak
surface troughing and southerly winds. Upper level ridging will
slowly develop over the southern plains by the middle of next
week, but will get shunted into the lower Midwest and Deep South
by late next week as an upper level trough develops over the
western United States. This will result in southwesterly mid to
upper level flow over the plains along with surface troughing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and just north of
the warm front across far western and southwestern Kansas this
afternoon, and then progress northeastward this evening. It is
unclear how far east these storms will get these evening, but
locations such as Garden City, Lakin, Scott City and Cimarron
have a good chance of storms in the vicinity. Some storms could
be severe given 2500 j/kg CAPE, 40-60kt winds at upper levels and
strong directional turning of the wind. Bunkers method shows a
storm motion to the southeast at 10 kts for any rotating, right
moving storms. The best shear and will be in west central Kansas,
with weaker shear over south central sections. If storms quickly
develop cold pools then marginally severe hail and wind gusts to
60 mph can be expected. However, if storms can manage to rotate,
then hail up to tennis ball size would be possible. Thunderstorms
will linger into tonight before dying off late.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

There are chances of thunderstorms into Wednesday given the weak
upper level troughing and abundant moisture. As the upper level
trough weakens, the shear profile over the high plains will
weaken. Therefore, severe thunderstorms are not expected aside
from an isolated downburst. Highs will be mainly in the lower to
middle 80s with a few pockets of upper 80s for Sunday through
Wednesday given the increasing mid level moisture and cloud cover
ahead of the trough. After Wednesday, lack of synoptic scale
frontal boundaries or upper level troughing, thunderstorm
activity will tend to be more isolated, albeit possibly marginally
severe. Temperatures will also return to above normal levels with
highs in the upper 80s by late week and maybe lower 90s by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A weak surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies
through the period, resulting in light south to southeast winds.
Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are expected to develop in
far western Kansas near the surface trough after 20z and then move
northeastward, possibly affecting the terminals between 23 and
04z. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions can be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  87  66 /  20  40  30  30
GCK  88  63  87  64 /  30  40  30  30
EHA  87  62  87  62 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  87  64  88  64 /  40  40  30  30
HYS  85  65  87  65 /  10  20  20  30
P28  88  68  88  68 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch


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