Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

On the synoptic scale, a zonal jet was found across the northern
CONUS from Washington to the Upper Great Lakes region. A subtropical
ridge prevailed across the Southern Plains with a subtropical low
nearly stationary off the coast of Southern California. The net
result of all these features on the lower troposphere was a
generally weak surface flow pattern across southwest Kansas. The
light winds today led to temperatures rising well into the mid 90s.
In fact, it touched 98 at Dodge City at 230pm, which was the warmest
observation in Kansas at that time.

There was a minor surface front which extended from extreme
southeast Nebraska into northwest Kansas where it was more difficult
to identify. The temperature difference was about 8 to 13 degrees
across the front from central KS to central NE. This surface front
was tied to a shortwave trough, moving across the Upper Midwest,
along the aforementioned northern polar jet stream. Since this
feature is so far north, it will have no bearing on our sensible
weather.  That said, the surface front will stall out with some low
level moisture pooling along it as winds become east southeasterly
during the overnight hours. There is a rather strong signal among
four high-resolution short-term models (4km/12km NAM, WRF-ARW, and
WRF-NMMb) in dense fog development along and just north of the
surface boundary. Given the strong signal in both timing and
placement of this fog, and the fact that we saw patchy dense fog
this morning around portions of central and south central Kansas,
feel it it probably a good idea to insert some areas of fog into the
grids, particularly along I-70.

For tomorrow, the surface lee trough will be a bit deeper across
eastern Colorado and the surface high across the mid Mississippi
Valley will also be a bit stronger, so we will see more wind. Wind
speeds by afternoon should be around 15-25 mph once deep mixing sets
in. The low level thermodynamics will be essentially the same, so we
should see highs around the mid 90s for most locations once again.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

The most significant weather of interest in the Long Term will be
toward the end of the period, as it is starting to look like there
will be a fairly substantial precipitation event developing this
weekend over a good portion of the Central/Southern Plains. Until
then, the southwest Kansas region will remain in a warm and windy
pattern, as a leeside trough continues to prevail with fairly high
southwest flow mid tropospheric heights across the Western Plains.
90s continue in the forecast for highs through Thursday, and likely
into Friday as well, even though we currently have upper 80s going
for most areas. A major change in the weather is looming just beyond
Friday, though.

The three major global models (GFS, GEM, ECMWF) all show a very
formidable upper low (with a 564 decameter 500mb center) somewhere
over northern Utah by 00Z Saturday. There will likely be a strong
enough mid level gradient with this low to tap into some deep
subtropical moisture from fairly low latitudes. Deep subtropical
moisture along with Gulf of Mexico low level moisture will,
together, lead to a prolonged period of precipitation chances (at or
above 40 percent as of this latest forecast). Eventually the Pacific
frontal boundary tied to this low will provide the enhanced
mesoscale lift to lead to heavier rainfall potential.  The upper low
itself will likely break off from the main polar jet and wallow
across the Desert Southwest, while a northern branch trough axis
leads to a stronger frontal push into the Central Plains. This could
also lead to heavier precipitation potential by later in the
weekend. This is still 5 to 6 days out, and a lot can and will
change, but there is such a strong signal in today`s global model
runs that there is definitely something to chew on as far as a
decent signal goes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

VFR through Tuesday. Included some LLWS at GCK through sunrise.
Reduced vis in BR/fog expected to be limited to the HYS vicinity
near sunrise. After 15z, strong south winds at all airports
15-25 kts, gusting near 30 kts. Increasing cirrus through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  95  69  91 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  64  95  69  91 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  56  94  66  88 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  64  95  68  91 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  64  95  71  91 /   0   0  10  10
P28  68  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner



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