Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Reduced cloud cover in the sky grids for the remainder of today
based on satellite imagery. With the added sunshine, added 1-2
degrees to the expected high temperatures this afternoon. Still
low to mid 60s, and still well below normal for mid May.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

An upper level trough/low, located near extreme southeast
California at 00z Wednesday, will move east across the four
corners region today . As this system begins to approach the
central Rockies late today both the GFS and NAM indicated that
moisture and isentropic lift will begin to improve across
southwest and south central Kansas in the 850mb to 700mb level,
especially after 00z Thursday. This will result in an increase in
low clouds early tonight. Any light precipitation that may develop
from this moisture and lift will occur after 06z Thursday and be
located across south central Kansas and area near the Oklahoma
border in southwest Kansas. Given where the area more favorable
for measurable precipitation will be overnight have lowered
precipitation chances in the west central and north central Kansas
while keeping the better chances in south central Kansas.

For today given the increasing clouds across southwest Kansas and
900mb to 850mb temperature trends will continue to place the
warmer high temperatures in north central and south central
Kansas. Highs at least in the mid 60s still look on track for
areas north and east of Dodge City. Lows near the Elkhart area may
struggle to warm much higher than 60. Lows tonight will range from
45 to 50.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

On Thursday the chance for showers will increase across all of
western Kansas as the upper level trough exits the Rockies and
moves out into the West Central High Plains. The better moisture
and lift ahead of this wave currently appears to be focus across
all of western Kansas early in the day and then shifts east into
central Kansas Thursday night. Will therefore stay close to the
previous forecast in increasing the chance for showers early in
the day and then taper this precipitation off from west to east
late Thursday night. Marginal instability still supports keeping
isolated thunderstorms going. Severe weather on Thursday is not
anticipated.

An upper level ridge axis then begin to build into western Kansas
on Friday. Models indicating the potential for some afternoon
convection based on weak forcing, moisture in the 850mb to 700mb
level and late day instability. The down side to late day
convection is the warming 700mb temperatures so kept small chances
going for areas east of Dodge City while lowered the chances
further west.

A warming trend can be expected through the weekend as 850mb
temperatures warm and a trough of low pressure deepens across
eastern Colorado. In addition to the warmer temperatures there
will also be a chance for thunderstorms each day from Saturday
through Monday. A developing trough/dry line in eastern Colorado
will be the main focus for late day storms on Saturday. On Sunday
this dry line is forecast to be located near the Colorado border
as a negatively tilted trough moves out of the Rockies and into
the central Plains. The potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms exists both days over the weekend period but the
better chance for severe thunderstorms across western Kansas
currently appears to be late Sunday. This dry line will move east
into central Kansas on Monday where another chance for severe
thunderstorms will occur late Monday. Temperatures are expected to
warm from the 70s on Friday into the mid 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Cloud coverage will increase and cigs will gradually lower through
this evening, as a weak storm system along the AZ/NM border at
midday, approaches SW KS. Consensus of short term models suggests
VFR cigs will hold through 06z Thu, with MVFR/IFR stratus
returning in moistening SE surface flow through 12z Thu. Models
are split between solid IFR category cigs versus higher MVFR, so
tried to split the difference in the 18z TAFs. Vast majority of
rainfall from this system will remain well south of SW KS, and
only included VCSH at GCK/DDC for the 12-18z Thu period. Light SE
winds will prevail through this TAF forecast cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  46  63  49 /  10  20  40  30
GCK  64  46  63  50 /  10  20  30  20
EHA  61  45  66  49 /  10  30  40  30
LBL  64  44  64  50 /  10  30  40  30
HYS  65  46  63  49 /   0  20  30  20
P28  66  50  62  50 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner



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