Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 292307
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE HAD THE
MODELS IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT.
GFS IS HANDLING THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE BEST AND WEIGHTED ITS
FORECAST THE MOST IN REGARDS TO THE RAINFALL. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF MAIN RAINFALL BAND. BEFORE NEW
ECMWF CAME IN...MODELS WERE TENDING TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST. ALSO REALITY AND MODEL DATA SUPPORTING SLOWER. SO
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
DUE TO A POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH PLACE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND. KEPT
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW.
RAINFALL ENDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOSTLY DRY THE REMAINDER TO THE
SHORT TERM. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AFTER A COUPLE OF GLANCING BLOWS OF PRECIPITATION THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK UP AFTER THIS BRIEF COOL DOWN AND REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
morning. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible
toward daybreak Wednesday as a cold front begins to push southeast
into western Kansas. A stratus deck is expected to develop and
lower in conjunction with the frontal passage potentially dropping
cigs into MVFR category. Brief periods of IFR cigs/vsbys will then
be possible in the vicinity of KGCK and KDDC as showers and
thunderstorms become more numerous through early Wednesday
afternoon. South to southeasterly winds of 5 to 15kt early this
evening will become more easterly 5 to 15kt overnight as a surface
low in extreme eastern Colorado drops southeastward into the Texas
panhandle. Winds may turn a little more northeasterly mid to late
Wednesday morning as a weak cold front pushes through western
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  72  60  82 /  90  90  30  10
GCK  63  71  57  83 / 100  90  20  10
EHA  62  73  60  79 /  90  80  40  20
LBL  64  75  61  82 / 100  90  40  20
HYS  63  78  62  84 /  60  70  10  10
P28  66  71  61  82 /  80  90  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR KSZ043-044-
061>064-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLD/MTB
LONG TERM...GLD/MTB
AVIATION...JJohnson





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