Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 041730
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Increasing clouds expected this afternoon through tonight, as
strong shortwave approaches SW KS. With the added cloud cover, low
temperatures Friday morning will be several degrees milder than
those observed this morning. Lift ahead of this feature is quite
strong by sunrise Friday, with overcast mid layer clouds expected.
Moisture supply is very limited, however, so only expecting virga
or flurries as this system passes. The best opportunity for light
accumulations of snow will be confined to WFO Goodland`s CWA.
A mostly cloudy sky will persist much of Friday as the shortwave
passes SW KS, with surface winds backing to N/NW at 10-20 mph
through the afternoon. Associated weak cold advection will hold
high temperatures Friday afternoon near Thursday`s readings, with
again northern zones with the deepest snowpack struggling to get
to freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Although medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave
digging southeast across the Western High Plains Friday, little
if any precip is expected with this system due to the lack of
low/mid level moisture and a generally weak flow aloft across the
region. Dry conditions will continue throughout the weekend for
the same reasons even as another upper level shortwave drops
southeast out of the Northern Rockies into the Central Plains
Sunday. The dry weather pattern can be expected to continue
through at least Tuesday as an amplified upper level ridge begins
to shift slowly east across the Intermountain West early in the
week. A brief break to a general warming trend can be expected
Friday as a weak frontal boundary pushes through western Kansas.
Still, highs can be expected up into the 30s(F) near the I-70
corridor where snowpack will linger to the 40s(F) further south.
Similar temperatures are likely through the early part of next
week as yet another weak frontal boundary pushes through western
Kansas late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR through Friday. Increasing cirrus this afternoon, with a W/NW
wind gusting near 20 kts at times. Mid cloud ceilings lowering
overnight as shortwave approaches. Vigorous, but moisture-starved,
shortwave will cross SW KS on Friday, with OVC cigs as low as
5k ft AGL at times. VFR cigs expected to hold, with only virga or
sprinkles as system passes. SFC winds back to N/NW at 10-20 kts
through Friday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  20  41  22 /   0  10  10   0
GCK  38  17  38  17 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  43  22  41  24 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  47  20  43  22 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  35  16  36  19 /   0  10  10   0
P28  48  25  48  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner


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