Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
344 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

...Updated Short Term, Long Term, Fire Weather Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Widespread 70s, even upper 70s, are in the forecast for today as
strong downslope momentum pushes out across the Central High Plains.
Extensive high cloud cover will continue, streaming in from the deep
tropics, but this will not have much impact at all on temperatures.
The warmer RAP and HRRR models are preferred for this temperature
forecast today, which shows the potential for near 80 in the Red
Hills along the Oklahoma border. A mild night will also be in store
as southwest Kansas region remains in the warm sector ahead of the
next front. Lows will be in the 40s for most, even near 50 in the
Red Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

One more fairly warm day is forecast Thursday before a strong cold
front pushes through in the evening. Highs Thursday will be a bit
less than today, as cooler 850mb temps will be around with a weak
Pacific cold front passage and wind being out of the west. The
airmass behind the Thursday Night cold front will certainly be
colder, but the true arctic air will miss western Kansas this time.
Winds of 25 to 30 mph will occur for about 3 to 5 hours behind the
front overnight Thursday Night. On Friday, highs will be some 25
degrees cooler with upper 30s to around 40 expected. Temperatures
will rebound nicely on Saturday and especially Sunday. Highs Sunday
should be well into the 60s again on fairly strong southwest winds.
The next sharp cold front will be due in sometime Monday, and the
airmass behind this one will have some arctic origin. As this is
happening, a deep trough will be developing across the Intermountain
West. At this time, the global models are suggesting yet another dry
scenario for western Kansas with the early-mid next week storm
system, but it is till 6+ days out, so a lot will likely change with
this forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A rather low impact aviation forecast through Wednesday Night with
mainly high clouds around and VFR flight category prevailing. Wind
direction will be mainly out of the southwest through the period,
with strongest winds in the 12 to 15 knot range at LBL during the
afternoon. GCK, DDC, and HYS terminals will not have very strong
winds today, topping out in the 10 to 12 knot range for the most


Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Near-critical fire weather conditions will be found today, as the
afternoon relative humidity falls to the lower to 12-16 percent
across much of far southwest Kansas. Wind speeds, however, are not
expected to be in the Red Flag territory (25 mph sustained or
frequent gusts) over a sustained amount of time over a decent sized
area. Nevertheless, it will be close, especially from Elkhart to
Liberal area.

Elevated fire conditions are also expected on Thursday and again
Saturday and especially Sunday. Sunday looks to be the best
potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions with very
strong southwest winds expected to develop.


DDC  75  45  68  20 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  73  40  66  20 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  76  44  69  23 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  79  45  72  22 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  70  38  59  19 /   0   0   0  10
P28  77  49  75  25 /   0  10  10   0




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
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