Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 220948
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EMBEDDED IN THIS
LARGER SYSTEM AND WAS PASSING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WAS FINALLY
SCOURING THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS. ONLY ISOLATED
SPRINKLES WERE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST 15-23 KTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THAT THIS IS NOT AN ARCTIC FRONT, AND
GIVEN AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TODAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 49 AND 54F, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS ON THE LOWER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN CLARK INTO
SOUTHERN BARBER COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NON-ARCTIC NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS, ALONG WITH FAIRLY ROBUST VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO THE
10-15KT WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(25-30F), TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 24
AND 31F, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE PRIMARY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST WERE ON TUESDAY AS A MASSIVE
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS. ALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH EACH RUN
REGARDING THE KINEMATIC AND MASS FIELDS, WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT ON
WESTERN KANSAS WEATHER BEING HIGH WIND.  THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH WIND EVENT...ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE DECIDED TO
GO WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DAY TUESDAY (IN COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBOR NWS GOODLAND TO THE NORTH). THE ECMWF, CANADIAN GEM,
AND BOTH VERSIONS OF THE GFS (OPERATIONAL 40KM AND EXPERIMENTAL
13KM) SHOW A VERY INTENSE HEIGHT GRADIENT AT BOTH 850 AND 700MB WITH
WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 SUGGESTED AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THESE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN
INCREASED AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE, PARTICULARLY AT 700MB,
WITH ASSOCIATED VERY LIGHT QPF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WE HAVE ADDED
IN INTERMITTENT FLURRIES DURING THE DAY GIVEN THIS LATEST TREND.

AFTER TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A RAPID TRANSITION TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AS BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, THOUGH, FOSTERING
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE BY
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH A TRACK TO THE NORTH KEEPING ALL
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME, THE GRIDS WILL REFLECT A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE
CHANGED, THOUGH, SHOULD THIS STORM DIG FARTHER SOUTH.

LOOKING WAY OUT IN THE LONG RANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR, THERE
IS SOME INTERESTING CONNECTION AMONG THE VARIOUS LONG TERM GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...ALL SHOWING ROBUST RIDGING IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC UP INTO ALASKA AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN CANADA. THIS
LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE WOULD SUPPORT MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS, INCLUDING WESTERN KANSAS, IN THE
ROUGHLY DEC 30 TO JAN 2 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE IFR/LIFR CIGS EASTWARD, LEAVING
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z. SOME CLOUD AOA040 MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
AT KHYS BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TO
20KTS BY 16 UTC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  29  37  24 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  50  27  36  21 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  50  27  37  22 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  52  28  37  22 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  50  30  36  23 /  20  10  30  10
P28  54  31  40  29 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.