Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170540
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1140 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Strong 553dm closed low, otherwise what forever will be known as
"Ice Storm 2017", is near Topeka and exiting the area at midday.
Deformation wraparound has all but completely dissipated, with
only a few flurries across the northern zones. Areas of reduced
visibility in fog will dissipate early this afternoon, but
widespread persistent low stratus will persist through sunset.
With the low clouds and snow/ice cover, and weak cold air
advection behind the departing cyclone, temperatures are slow to
warm today, unfortunately. Still holding at freezing here at the
office, and will likely only get 1-2 more degrees this afternoon.
NW winds of 10-20 mph will continue to stress iced trees and power
lines. This is a real hazard, and needs to be taken seriously.
Trees (or what`s left of them) and power infrastructure may
collapse at any time in response to NW winds and temperatures
climbing to just above freezing. Be aware of your surroundings,
and look up! Melting will be limited today.

Tonight...Low clouds will very gradually erode. All models
suggest some light snow showers will continue across the western
zones overnight, so included in the grids. Lows Tuesday morning in
the mid to upper 20s, so there are some refreezing concerns on
streets and sidewalks. NW winds will diminish as surface high
pressure builds into the Texas panhandle and the western zones.

Tuesday...Much better, finally. Atmosphere warms some, with 850 mb
temperatures climbing to near +3C. This will allow temperatures to
easily climb above freezing, helped along by the return of
sunshine. With the widespread snow and ice to melt, undercut
guidance by several degrees, but still expecting highs mainly in
the lower 40s Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Quiet weather with moderating temperatures expected Wednesday and
Thursday. Elongated weak low pressure aloft meandering over the
high plains will keep this warming trend in check, but still
expect upper 40s and lower 50s to be common both Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons, and the ice will be history. The lack of
impacts during this time frame will facilitate badly-needed
cleanup efforts.

12z ECMWF spins up another small but robust shortwave over New
Mexico Friday morning, and spreads it negatively tilted, and
strengthens it, into Kansas Friday afternoon. This system will be
short on moisture. Thickness and 850 temps on Friday support rain
(LIQUID rain), and kept the blended pops in the grids for light
rain as is, favoring the northern counties. Highs in the 40s with
lower 50s south.

Active winter weather likely to return next weekend. Saturday
appears mainly dry, as a strong trough approaches from the Desert
SW. From this trough, ECMWF generates a strong 538 dm closed low
over the Texas panhandle Saturday night. Medium range models agree
on rain/snow moving into SW KS Saturday evening, with 12z ECMWF`s
track favoring accumulating snow centered around Sunday morning.
Superblend grids show chance pops of rain changing to snow during
this time and were retained. ECMWF suggests several inches of snow
are possible around Sunday morning. Strong ridging will return
next Monday, ahead of another potentially strong storm system next
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

The models are in good agreement with drier air in the lower
levels returning overnight. MVFR ceilings at midnight will
gradually improve through early Tuesday morning as a surface ridge
axis builds into western Kansas. VRF conditions are expected at
all three taf sites by 15z Tuesday. northwest winds at 10 knots or
less will gradually veer to the west between 15z and 18z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  41  27  49 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  26  41  24  47 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  25  46  27  53 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  26  44  27  52 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  28  40  25  47 /  20   0   0   0
P28  30  45  27  53 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert



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