Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270741
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
241 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...Updated short and long term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A double barrel low pressure system at 500 millibars was situated
from eastern Wyoming into western Kansas early this morning. The
southern extent of this low was in the process of strengthening
and closing off as it tracks east while the northern extent was
gradually weakening and filling. Showers and a few thunderstorms
were developing across west central and northwest Kansas under the
mid level cold pool and area of enhanced upward vertical motion
associated with the low. The area of scattered showers will
propagate east through this morning with the upper low and should
be winding down over central Kansas by midday to early afternoon.
The best chances for precipitation will be confined to areas north
of the Arkansas River.

Cooler temperatures can be expected today behind a cold front
currently moving through the area. Highs will generally be in the
mid 60s with low 70s expected across far south central Kansas.

Mid level ridging builds into the central High Plains tonight with
decreasing clouds across western Kansas. Temperatures will be near
to slightly below seasonal normals, in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A fairly complicated upper level flow pattern will continue over
the western and central part of the country through the end of the
week. Another strong upper level low pressure system, progged by
the models to be located over Las Vegas Thursday morning, will
move northeast toward the Colorado Front Range by Friday. Low
level moisture shunted into the southern Plains by todays cold
front will begin to move back into western Kansas by Thursday
afternoon as the low level flow becomes southeasterly. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop and spread northeast across the area
Thursday night and continue through much of Friday. The bulk of
the precipitation will be on Friday ahead of a shortwave trough
lifting out with the upper low. The precipitation will be fairly
widespread with many locations possibly receiving around an inch
or so of rain by Friday evening. As this low lifts northeast of
the region Friday night, yet another low is progged to drop
through the western states into the Great Basin and Desert
Southwest by Sunday afternoon. With shortwave disturbances
rotating around these upper lows and ejecting out into the Plains,
there will be continued opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A cold front pushing through western Kansas will northerly winds
gusting to 20-25 knots at times tonight through Wednesday morning.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop eastward across
west central into parts of southwest Kansas through the night and
should be exiting the region by mid morning Wednesday. These showers,
along with some MVFR cigs, should mainly impact the Hays terminal
but will have to watch for farther south development toward Garden
City and Dodge City.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  41  65  46 /  10   0  10  60
GCK  65  38  64  44 /  10   0  10  60
EHA  66  38  66  44 /   0   0  10  60
LBL  66  40  68  47 /   0   0  10  60
HYS  63  38  62  44 /  40   0  10  60
P28  72  45  70  51 /  10   0  10  60

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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