Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280503
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1103 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
DRIER AIR REMAINS PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL WARMING. A PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AS INDICATED BY THE 3 PM TEMPERATURE OF 67F
AT PUEBLO, CO. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE DOWNSLOPE IN ELEVATED
FASHION TONIGHT GIVEN THE VEERED 850MB WINDS, AND THEN MIX TO THE
SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN ENHANCED CIRRIFORM
CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG SURFACE
WARMING ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO HIGH 60S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY, TO THE 70-73F RANGE
FROM DODGE CITY WESTWARD WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

WIDESPREAD WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS WEAK ADIABATIC WARMING
PATTERN SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID WARMING ON SATURDAY MORNING ONCE
INSOLATION BECOMES A FACTOR. RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS AROUND 5-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN AVERAGE MOS TEMPERATURES FOR VERY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

ON SUNDAY, THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE AN
EARLY HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 50S OR EVEN 60S COULD OCCUR
AROUND LIBERAL AND ELKHART, BUT RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RELEGATE THE HAYS AND K-96 REGION TO
NO WARMER THAN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT EXCEED THE 30S ANYWHERE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT RETURN WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW WARMING INTO THE 50S WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283. A SLOW RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE DRY ZONAL PATTERN RESUMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 15KT
OVERNIGHT AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO BEGINS TO
PUSH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  70  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  32  70  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  73  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  71  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  66  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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