Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 121805
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
105 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Short range models indicate the upper level shortwave in the
Northern Plains pushing eastward into the Great Lakes Region
tonight. As the shortwave moves across the region, an attendant
frontal boundary will shift slowly southward out of Nebraska into
northwest and north central Kansas this evening. Ample low level
moisture will be present with surface dewpoints well into the lower
to mid 60s(F) across central and southwest Kansas. Even with a weak
flow aloft in place across the high plains of western Kansas, enough
instability and forcing will exist to support thunderstorm
development in the vicinity of the boundary across west central,
central, and portions of southwest Kansas tonight. Although the
flow aloft will remain fairly weak as mentioned above, CAPE values
in excess of 1000 J/Kg and steep lapse rates suggest the
possibility for stronger storms with gusty winds the primary
threat. Widespread severe weather is not expected.

Little change is expected to the air mass in place across the high
plains of western Kansas tonight. As a result, look for lows back
down into the 60s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F)
in south central Kansas. Slightly cooler temperatures are likely
Sunday as a weak frontal boundary pushes southward into Oklahoma.
Expect highs only up into the 80s(F) across central Kansas with
lower to mid 90s(F) still possible closer to the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

For Sunday into Monday, a large upper low and trough moves into the
Great Lakes and Central Plains. This system will push a cold front
across Kansas and into Oklahoma on Sunday. There will be only a
slight chance for thunderstorms with the front across western Kansas
into Sunday night. Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible
behind the front on Monday with some upslope flow and good moisture.
Highs on Sunday will be not as warm and in the upper 80s to around
90, with mid 90s in the Medicine Lodge area. Highs on Monday will
continue in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday night, and low to mid 60s on
Monday night. Severe weather chances look low at this time with weak
wind shear and minor instability.

Temperatures get much cooler for Tuesday into late next week, as the
aforementioned upper low continues to build deeply southward into
the Great Lakes, adjacent Plains, and eastern U.S. with several
shortwaves rounding the base of the upper low.  A large area of
cooler surface high pressure will push into the Central and Southern
Plains with highs only in the 70s, and lows in the 50s to around 60.
If clouds and showers stick around, highs may not get out of the 60s
especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday looks like the best
chances for measurable rainfall as a shortwave trough rounds the
base of the main upper low across the Central Plains. Rainfall
chances begin to decrease on Thursday into Friday. Highs warm also
by Friday possibly back into the 80 as an upper trough moves east
and upper level ridging build back into the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of KHYS late this
evening as a surface trough moves south across western Kansas
through tonight. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible with the
stronger storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all
TAF sites through early Sunday morning. Southwesterly winds of
around 10 to 20kt this afternoon are expected to become light and
variable this evening as a surface trough axis extending from
southeastern Colorado northeast across western Kansas moves
southward through tonight. Winds will become northeasterly 5 to
10kt early Sunday morning as the trough axis pushes further south
into Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  89  68 /   0  30  30  30
GCK  96  68  88  67 /   0  30  20  30
EHA  95  68  91  67 /   0  30  40  40
LBL  95  69  92  68 /   0  30  30  30
HYS  96  68  88  68 /  10  40  20  30
P28  95  72  94  71 /   0  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...JJohnson





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