Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 301924
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
124 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
...Updated for Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
For tonight, an upper level storm system will continue to move
northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by morning, with clearing
skies and light downslope winds across western Kansas. Surface high
pressure will build into western Kansas with light west winds of 5
to 10 mph. Overnight lows will be in the teens to low 20s.
For Tuesday, mostly sunny skies will prevail with light west winds.
An upper trough will also swing across the Central Plains with some
colder air moving into the area just east and north of Dodge City.
Highs will warm into the 40 to 45 degree range.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015
The mid to late week weather across western Kansas will be welcomely
tranquil as large scale ridging builds across the Rockies. Northwest
surface winds will very gradually become southwesterly through late
week, however wind speeds are not expected to be all that strong
given the large scale, relaxed pressure gradient across the Central
Plains thanks to the scale of the surface high in the wake of this
departing storm system. Temperatures will slowly warm through the
40s each afternoon with some upper 40s/near 50 likely by Thursday
By the end of the week, we will be watching another trough develop
across the Intermountain West. There is a fairly high degree of
confidence that an upper low will develop out of this trough as it
enters the Rockies and adjacent High Plains by the weekend. The
ECMWF is the most aggressive in developing a closed 500mb low center
across the Four Corners region Saturday. If that were to occur, we
will be looking for our next precipitation event by mid to late in
the weekend of Dec 5-6. If it does occur, there will be no arctic
air to work with (very high degree of confidence in this), so any
precipitation would be either in the form of cold rain or a wet snow
with temperatures in the 30s to lower/mid 40s.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Light downslope flow will dominate the area with clearing skies
and light west winds at the surface. VFR conditions are expected
as the upper level wave continues to move off to the northeast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 41 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 16 42 21 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 18 45 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 18 43 23 44 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 21 41 24 43 / 0 0 0 0
P28 23 45 26 44 / 0 0 0 0