Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ONE CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, WHICH IS FOG. THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING DEWPOINTS RIGHT
NOW AND FEEL THAT TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE ANOTHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT SETUP
TYPE FOR GROUND FOG. THIS WAS HINTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
LIKE THE WRF AND SREF. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE WINDS. EXPECT
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHICH, GENERALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. HAVE PUT FOG IN FOR THE NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN, AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
WARM FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS AND IN THE 50S. TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR TOMORROW, THE WARM TREND
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONG 593 DM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS ABOUT A 9-15 DM POSITIVE ANOMALY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE LOW LEVELS, VERY WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THE NET RESULT IS
SFC TEMPERATURES MIXING TO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW RECORD VALUES, SO MOST SITES SHOULD BE SAFE. POPS WILL REMAIN
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A STRONG AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN U.S., THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EARLIER ECMWF HAD A MUCH STRONGER WAVE, BUT
NOW HAS BECOME MORE LIKE THE BROADER GFS. NOT ALOT OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS, AND ANYWHERE FROM .01 TO .25
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOK WARM AND AROUND 80 TO 85
DEGREES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 70S, THEN 60S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH
THE NOON HOUR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS BR/FG REDEVELOPS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE RIGHT NOW, BUT WILL GO AHEAD
AND INSERT IN TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  87  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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