Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220854
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED INTO TEXAS BY THE
PREVIOUS FRONT SO THAT SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA OF RICHER MOISTURE, BUT GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS OVER THE PLAINS, THE STORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WHILE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. HOWEVER, SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG INTERSTATE 70. MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM; BUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

INITIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AN AREA OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
FROM MONDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283
BUT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLIP EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/281 BY
MID MORNING.AS THE REGION HEADS INTO TUESDAY THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE, THE LEE
TROUGH WILL KICK OFF THE FOOT HILLS REGION OF COLORADO INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PERMIT DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS DECENT SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PERMIT
MIXING UP TO 750 HPA WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL UP TO PING PONG SIZE POSSIBLE FROM ANY
STRONGER STORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SEE THE UPPER LOW SLIDE SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WHILE THE TRAILING END OF THE WAVE LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER THAN TUESDAY WHICH INDICATES LITTLE
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
CLOSED LOW COMPLETELY CUTTING OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THEN
RETROGRADING UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BACK SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS.
THIS WILL FORM A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY EARLY WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
POTENT WAVE DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT THEN STALLS DUE TO
THE BLOCKING REGIME. GENERALLY THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST,
RESULTING IN A RESUMPTION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS BY
15-17Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LOW CLOUDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
AOA070 IS LIKELY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  60  82  60 /  10  30  30  30
GCK  77  60  83  60 /  10  30  20  30
EHA  76  61  82  59 /  20  20  10  20
LBL  78  62  85  61 /  10  20  10  30
HYS  78  59  79  59 /  10  50  50  30
P28  78  60  80  60 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH


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