Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271713
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1213 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

At 12z Thursday a 500mb trough was located over Colorado and
Wyoming. 40 to 50 meter 500mb 12 hour height falls were observed
east of the upper trough at North Platte and Denver. A 700mb
trough was located over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska.
700mb temperatures at 12z Thursday varied from +10c at Topeka to
+13c at Dodge City and Denver to +14c at North Platte. At the
surface a weak stationary front extended from southwest Nebraska
into central Kansas. A trough of low pressure extended from north
to south across far eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING WILL
ROUND THE EDGE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER TODAY. AS THIS DOES, THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM HAYS, DOWN TO
NEAR DODGE CITY, AND WRAPPING BACK UP TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS STAFFORD
COUNTY. THIS IS A BLEND OF THE TWO ARW/WRF CORES, WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST
FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION. A LOW TO MODERATE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP (1000-2000 J/KG). BULK SHEAR WILL BE WEAK TOO (20-30
KT). THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS ARE 50-60 MPH WINDS, NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORM, WOULD NOT RULE OUT 1" OF RAIN. MORE REALISTICALLY, RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPOTTY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE POPS TAPERING QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
OF THE MODELS CONTINUE PRECIP THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS WITH LIFT. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WE WILL SEE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING UPPER 80S FOR THESE DAYS. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH 90S LIKELY
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SUPERBLEND HAS ISOLATED
15-20 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. I SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MOST AREAS REMAIN HOT AND DRY SINCE ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE FOR
THIS SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Clouds will thicken and lower this afternoon as a Colorado upper
level trough moves east towards western Kansas. At this time based
on the NAM BUFR along with the RAP and NMM the VFR ceilings by
late day/early evening will lower to around 3500 ft AGL. In
addition to the lowering ceilings there will also be a chance for
thunderstorms ahead of the upper level trough late today and early
tonight. DDC and HYS will have the better opportunity for
convection for thunderstorms between 21z Thursday and 03z Friday.
GCK also has a chance but it appears to be prior to 00z Friday,
and the probability is less than 50 percent. As this upper level
trough passes the chance for storms will end and skies will begin
to slowly clear. Gusty southwest winds will continue until a cold
front crosses southwest Kansas between 03z and 09z Friday. As this
cold front passes the winds will shift to the north at 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  66  88  60 /  50  50  10   0
GCK  96  64  88  59 /  30  40  10   0
EHA  95  64  88  59 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  98  66  89  60 /  40  50  10   0
HYS  98  65  87  59 /  60  60  10   0
P28  98  70  91  63 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...Burgert



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