Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200814
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
214 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

...Updated Short term, Long term, and Fire Wx Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Gusty north to northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph and surface dew
points in the teens to lower 20s will spread across western Kansas
today as a cold front drops south across the Central Plains.
Given these gusty winds this afternoon along with relative
humidity values falling back into the 10 to 20 percent range
elevated to critical fire danger levels will develop, especially
west of a Dighton to Meade line. Will therefore be upgrading the
Fire Watch to a Red Flag warning.

Despite a cold front crossing western Kansas today the highs
today will once again be 10 to 20 degrees above the normal based
on the 850mb temperatures forecast at 00z Tuesday and the mixing
depth potential.

Early this evening the gusty northwest winds will fall back to
around 10 mph range as a surface ridge axis begins to build into
western Kansas from the northwest. Given the clear skies, surface
dew points ranging from the teens in far western Kansas to around
32 in south central Kansas, and where the surface ridge axis is
forecast to be located between 09z and 12z Monday will be
undercutting guidance for lows east of a Hays to Dodge City to
Liberal lines. Further west will stay close to the MET and MAV
given the southwest wind developing after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Westerly down slope flow will improve Tuesday and Wednesday as an
upper level ridge axis moves across the Central Plains. 850mb to
800mb temperature trends indicated highs will be mainly in the
middle 70s on Tuesday with 80 degree temperatures being possible
in portions of western Kansas on Wednesday.

A cold front will drop south into northern Kansas late
Wednesday/Wednesday night as an upper level trough rotates around
the upper ridge axis and crosses the Northern Plains. As this
surface cold front drops into southwest Kansas early Thursday some
cooler air will return to north central and portions of western
Kansas. South of this front however highs once again will climb
into the 70 to 80 degree range.

Winds will also be on the increase on Thursday as an area of low
pressure deepens across southeast Colorado in response to the next
approaching upper level trough . A surface boundary will lift
back north as a warm front Thursday night as the deepening surface
low crosses western Kansas. Precipitation chances will increase
late Thursday and especially Thursday night as warm moist air gets
lifted north for of the warm front late Thursday and then will
wrap around the deepening surface low as it tracks east across
western Kansas Thursday night. Models differing on the track of
this surface low Thursday night and as a result confidence is not
high on where the better lift will be located due to the improving
850mb to 700mb frontogenisis across northern Kansas or southern
Nebraska and ahead of the eastward moving upper level trough.
Despite the differences in the models it currently appears that
this area of enhanced lift will be near and north of the Nebraska
border. Temperature profiles in this area also supports rain will
be possible late Thursday but this precipitation will change over
to all snow early Thursday night.

Strong gusty north winds can also be expected behind a cold front
as it crosses western Kansas Thursday night into Friday. These
strong winds will be the main hazards for western Kansas since the
better chances for precipitation will be to our north. Based on
the tight pressure gradient forecast across western Kansas along
with strong winds in the 900mb to 850mb level wind speeds of 30 to
35 mph will be possible at times early Friday. Am a little
concerned that the forecast temperatures on Friday may be a little
too warm given the cold air advection advertised and possible
cloud cover in the north.

Cooler, more seasonal temperatures are likely next weekend as
high pressure builds across the plains on Saturday. There may even
be another chance for rain or snow Sunday night into Monday as
another upper level trough crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Southeasterly winds at 10 to 15 knots at 06z will veer to the
southwest to west by 10z Monday. While winds are southeasterly in
the Hays and Dodge City area some patchy fog will be possible
with MVFR visibilities.

Gusty northwest winds at 15 to around 20s are expected to develop
between 14z and 18z Monday at all three taf sites behind a
surface cold front drops south across western Kansas. These gusty
winds will begin to subside late day and after 00z Tuesday the
northwest winds will fall back into the 10 to 15 knot range as a
surface ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas. NAM and
GFS model soundings indicating VFR conditions can be expected
overnight and Monday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Gusty north to northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph and drier air can
be expected today as a cold front drops south across western
Kansas. Given the mixing depth expected today along with the dry
air forecast in the boundary layer by RAP, NAM and GFS it appears
that the latest guidance for afternoon dew points are a little to
high. As a result have trended towards the lower surface dew
points from the NAM and GFS for this afternoon. Given these lower
afternoon dew points and gusty northwest winds elevated to
critical fire danger levels will develop, especially west of a
Dighton to Meade line. Will therefore be upgrading the FIre Watch
to a Red Flag warning.

Outdoor burning is discouraged across western Kansas today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  34  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  67  29  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  35  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  33  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  68  36  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  37  75  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CST /noon MST/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert



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