Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240455
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A northwest flow aloft will develop across the Western High Plains
tonight as ridging across the Great Basin continues to build.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain in control from the
Upper Midwest down into the Central Plains. With a weaker flow aloft
and a stalled frontal boundary remaining situated down near the Red
River Valley, what little chance there is for precip should stay
near and along the Oklahoma border this evening. Otherwise, drier
conditions can be expected through late Monday afternoon. Decreasing
cloud cover and the surface high across the Upper Midwest reinforcing
the air mass across the high plains will allow temperatures to drop
into the 60s(F) for lows tonight. A few lower 70s(F) may still be
possible in south central Kansas. Lee side troughing will develop
Monday helping to bring more of a southeasterly flow about to western
Kansas with H85 temperatures ranging from the mid 20s(C) in central
Kansas to the upper 20s(C) closer to the Colorado border. Under mostly
sunny skies, should see highs well up into the 90s(F) Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Precip chances will be limited, but not completely ruled out across
western Kansas early this week as weak upper level ridging shifts
slowly eastward across the South Plains. There is an outside chance
for thunderstorms late Monday afternoon/evening as a prevailing
southeast upslope flow continues to draw ample moisture into the
area increasing instability. Meanwhile, steep low/mid level lapse
rates and increased convergence in the vicinity of a lee side
trough across eastern Colorado is expected to provide a trigger
for thunderstorms late in the day with storms then potentially
drifting into extreme western Kansas later in the evening. A few
storms may develop further east along the Oklahoma border as a
weak frontal boundary is projected to lift back to the north
across the region. Thunderstorm chances pick up a little more
toward mid week as an upper level shortwave transitioning east
across southern Canada ushers an attendant cold front
southeastward into the high plains. There seems to be fair
agreement between the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF showing the best chance
for storm development to be sometime late Wednesday into early
Thursday. Although it is too early to determine the threat for
severe weather, projected higher surface dewpoints and PW values
suggest an increased potential for localized flooding due to
periods of heavy rainfall.

A warming trend is likely through Wednesday as a low level southerly
flow under ridging aloft helps draw warmer up into Kansas. Widespread
90s(F) can be expected for highs Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures
possibly reaching 100F more toward south central Kansas Wednesday
afternoon. An expected frontal passage should provide relief Thursday
and Friday from the hotter temperatures earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

High pressure building east over the central and southern Plains
will keep VFR conditions prevailing through this period. A
strengthening lee side trough over the northern High Plains will
result in an increase in southerly winds to around 10-15 knots
through the midday and afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  95  70  98 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  63  94  70  97 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  65  93  69  96 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  65  94  71  98 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  65  96  72  98 /   0  10  10  10
P28  70  97  72  99 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard



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