Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 030558
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1258 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
Short range models indicate a southwest flow aloft developing across
the Western High Plains tonight as an upper level trough of low
pressure edges eastward across the Central and Southern Rockies.
As the upper level system approaches, the flow aloft will become
more difluent enhancing dynamic support. Additionally, a +70kt
upper level jet climbing northeast out of the trough axis will
shift east out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains of
Colorado and western Kansas late tonight while a prevailing
southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas and a near
stationary frontal boundary extending from extreme eastern
Colorado southward into the South Plains will provides increased
lift/forcing. As a result, light to moderate precip will be
possible across extreme southwest Kansas early Saturday morning as
H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Southern Rockies with any
developing precip spreading eastward through late Saturday
afternoon. According to NAM/GFS model soundings, vertical
profiles look to be fairly saturated in the lower levels with very
little CAPE available in the mid/upper level. This suggests a
precip mode of primarily light to moderate rain with a slight
chance for a few isolated storms.
Well below normal temperatures are likely tonight as a cooler air
mass associated with the broad surface high to our northeast,
migrates further southwest into the high plains. With surface
dewpoints already down into the 40s(F) and upper 30s(F), look for
lows down into the mid to upper 40s(F) overnight. Along with the
presence of a cooler air mass, increased cloud cover and areas of
precip will help keep high temperatures down again Saturday. Highs
are only expected up into the 50s(F) Saturday afternoon with near
60F possible further south near the Oklahoma border.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
Drier conditions are expected late Sunday into the early part of
next week as medium range models show an upper level shortwave
within the broader scale trough lifting northward out of the
Western High Plains into the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, weak
upper level ridging is expected to build northward across the
Central Plains. A lack of low/mid level moisture/instability and
a weak flow aloft will lead to a drier weather pattern across
western Kansas through at least Tuesday. A warming trend will
begin Sunday and continue through Tuesday as the aforementioned
weak upper level ridging builds across the Central Plains. Highs
up into the 60s(F) are likely Sunday with temperatures reaching
above normal by Tuesday, possibly into the 80s(F) in some areas.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
Rain showers will expand in areal coverage ahead of an upper level
disturbance and spread over the TAF sites between 08 and 15z.
CIGS are expected to remain VFR/MVFR despite the rain with VFR
visibilities. Winds will remain from the southeast, with highest
speeds between 16-22z.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 67 48 70 / 40 40 10 10
GCK 45 67 48 71 / 40 30 10 10
EHA 46 68 50 72 / 30 30 10 10
LBL 47 69 50 72 / 40 40 10 10
HYS 45 65 45 71 / 30 20 10 10
P28 48 68 49 71 / 30 20 10 10