Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212344
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
644 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A stationary trough axis this evening will lead to very isolated
thunderstorms. There will be a slightly greater concentration of
moderate to perhaps strong storms in the vicinity of the HYS
terminal through the mid evening hours, and we will carry VCTS
there through about 0200 UTC. Organized thunderstorm activity is
not expected to impact GCK and DDC this evening. South winds will
persist through the night and pick up in strength again during the
day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots during the
afternoon with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  72  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  71  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  73  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  77 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid





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