Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300508
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1208 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

At 00z Monday an upper low was located near the four corners
region and an upper level ridge axis extended from the Mid to
Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic States. Between these
two systems a tropical southerly flow extended from south Texas
into the Central Plains. Several subtle upper level disturbances
were embedded in this tropical southerly flow. At the 850mb level
the winds were southeast across Oklahoma and Kansas with
temperatures at Dodge City, Oklahoma City, and Amarillo all
reporting 21C at 00z Monday. At the surface a trough of low
pressure was located over eastern Colorado with another surface
boundary appearing across northwest Oklahoma and south central
Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are likely
across portions of western and central Kansas tonight as a series
of H5 vort maxima continue to lift northeast across the Western
High Plains within a conveyor belt of tropical moisture. Short
range models show the H5 vort maxima cycling around a weak upper
low situated across the Four Corners Region while broad upper
level ridging remains in control across the southeastern CONUS. As
the flow aloft becomes increasingly difluent overnight, a +70kt
jet core is projected to climb northeast across the Western High
Plains with an a right entry region setting up generally across
western Kansas. Although instability will remain fairly modest
(generally under 1000 J/Kg), periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected through early Tuesday. Factoring in
the high amounts of QPF with PW values in excess of 1.5 inches,
periods of heavy rainfall will be possible increasing the
potential for localized flooding.

Little change to the overall air mass is expected tonight while
surface dewpoints remain generally in the 60s(F). So look for lows
back down into the mid to upper 60s(F) overnight with the lower
70s(F) possible in south central Kansas. With widespread precip
and cloud cover likely through early Tuesday, highs may struggle
to reach the 80s(F) across western and portions of central Kansas
Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Precip chances will continue through at least mid week even as a
building upper level ridge of high pressure shifts eastward out
of the Intermountain West into the Northern and Western High
Plains. The tropical plume mentioned in the early term will
continue to provide ample moisture in the mid/upper levels while a
southeasterly upslope flow redevelops across western Kansas in
wake of a weak frontal passage Monday night/early Tuesday.
Regardless of a prevailing weak flow aloft, enough instability
will be present to support possible showers and thunderstorms
across much of the area Wednesday with a shift in focus to the
south and west on Thursday as the frontal boundary sets up from
the Texas Panhandle northwestward into eastern Colorado.

Temperatures are not likely to vary much with little change to the
air mass across the high plains. Highs are expected to remain near
to possibly a little below normal depending on precip coverage and
cloud cover. In general, highs can be expected to reach the
80s(F) with lows in the 60s(F) through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

A south to southeasterly wind at less than 10 knots can be
expected through Monday morning across western Kansas as a trough
of low pressure at the surface remains nearly stationary over
eastern Colorado. Some patchy fog can not be completely ruled out
around daybreak given the low to mid 60 degree surface dew points
and a light south to southeast flow. Models soundings indicating
low level moisture will be very shallow with the bulk of the
moisture in the model soundings being at or above the 700mb level.
Dense fog is not anticipated but possibly a brief period of-2-4sm
in fog could develop. Otherwise VFR conditions can be expected at
all three taf sites through the remainder of the night and early
Monday. There will also be a chance for some rain showers or even
a few thunderstorms today as subtle waves embedded in a tropical
southerly flow crosses western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  81  64  82 /  70  60  60  50
GCK  63  80  63  81 /  50  60  60  50
EHA  62  76  62  82 /  60  60  60  40
LBL  62  79  63  82 /  70  60  60  50
HYS  65  80  64  79 /  70  60  60  50
P28  68  85  68  84 /  70  40  60  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert


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