Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
150 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Southwesterly mid to high level flow was increasing across the
plains ahead of a shortwave trough. Ridging has moved into
Mississippi Valley. This system will interact with low pressure
in Eastern Colorado, in addition to a surface high over the
Tennessee Valley. This will in turn strengthen the pressure
gradient over Western Kansas and create gusty conditions through
Friday night. Increasing moisture and gusty wind will cause lows
tonight to stay in the mid to lower 50s. Tomorrow morning, a
series of H5 vorticity maxs flow into Southwest Kansas. While
instability is minimal, H85 moisture continues to increase
throughout the region. Confidence is low, but agreed with
neighboring offices to leave small POPs in the forecast for rain
showers east of Dodge City/La Crosse line. High on Friday will
reach 80s to the west and mid- 70s toward Central Kansas due to an
increase in cloud cover tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

There is an outside shot at thunderstorms late Friday as medium
range models show a southwest flow aloft becoming increasingly
difluent across the Western High Plains. Although the flow aloft
itself will remain fairly weak, a prevailing southerly flow near
the surface will draw enough moisture up into southern Kansas
ahead of a sharpening dryline, in turn increasing instability
across central and portions of southwest Kansas. As low/mid level
lapse rates steepen, a few isolated thunderstorms could be possible
Friday afternoon/evening as H5 vort maxima begin to kick out of
the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains. The best chance for
any thunderstorm development will be across south central Kansas
where an axis of higher dewpoints is forecast.

A more reasonable chance for precip exists late Saturday as an upper
level trough becomes more amplified as it moves out of the Central
and Southern Rockies into the Western High PLains. An attendant cold
front is progged to push across western into central Kansas by early
to mid afternoon. Considering the presence of a modest upper level
jet will provide more favorable dynamic support aloft, thunderstorm
development is more likely in vicinity of the frontal boundary as
it pushes into a pool of increased moisture where surface
dewpoints are expected to reach up into the 60s(F). However, a
prevailing dryline just ahead of the front is forecast to move
eastward into central Kansas by early to mid afternoon helping to
confine thunderstorm chances more to south central Kansas. Drier
conditions will take hold Sunday and continue through the middle
part of the week as a drier air mass across the high plains is
reinforced by yet another frontal passage projected to move
through western Kansas early next week.

Well above normal temperatures are expected to persist into Friday
as prevailing southerlies reinforce the warmer air mass across the
high plains. Should see highs generally in the lower to mid 80s(F)
across west central and much of southwest Kansas Friday afternoon.
Highs may struggle to climb out of the 70s(F) though in south
central Kansas where increased cloud cover could play a factor. Much
cooler temperatures are likely Saturday as a cooler air mass spreads
across western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal passage. A
predominately west to northwest flow will lead to a short-lived
warming trend Sunday and possibly Monday before yet another cold
front is projected to move through the region early in the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Wind has shifted southerly as a boundary that sat stationary in
our region this morning has lifted north. With deepening low
pressure in Eastern Colorado, the pressure gradient will tighten
and will cause wind to gust this afternoon and through the
overnight to 20-25 knots. Low level wind shear will be a concern
at KHYS from ~6-10Z. Moisture will advect into the region from
Oklahoma late tomorrow morning, which may cause MVFR ceilings to
develop at KDDC and KHYS. In addition, wind will start to
increase to gusts of 30-35 toward the end of the TAF period.


DDC  82  56  78  60 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  82  56  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  79  54  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  80  56  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  83  57  78  61 /   0   0   0  10
P28  81  57  76  65 /   0   0  20  20




SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Reynolds is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.