Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211945
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UPPER RIDGE;
REMAINING WEAKLY SUBSIDENT OR NEUTRAL WITH RESPECT TO VERTICAL
MOTIONS.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
EXPANDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MO.

THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOULD LIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ACCOUNT
FOR MAINLY RAIN/SHRA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT VARIES BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH AND THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY WAS, THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS TODAY. MODELS ONLY FORECAST MID
60S UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNER`S REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING UP ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SMALL HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT
THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
FROM SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND TOWARDS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION FALLING. HOWEVER, IF THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES. HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR IN THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME WITH RAIN EXPECTED
FROM THEN UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS (15-18Z). EXPECT IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER THE RAIN CEASES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  59  53  66 /  90  90  60  60
GCK  48  61  53  67 /  90  70  50  50
EHA  48  65  55  71 /  80  30  40  40
LBL  49  63  56  67 /  90  60  60  60
HYS  47  59  52  64 /  70  80  50  50
P28  50  58  55  65 /  70  80  60  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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