Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 100741 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
241 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

The main challenge in the forecast tonight and Thursday is
precipitation chances, extent, and thunderstorm severity.
Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast
Colorado in vicinity of, or just downstream of Cheyenne Ridge. The
former runs (00Z) of the WRF-ARW and WRF-NMMB cores suggested a
small MCS would develop and roll southeast toward far west-central
Kansas. The latest 12Z runs of both the models, however, are less
aggressive with this idea. That being said, the HRRR (using WRF-ARW
core) late morning runs insist on northeast Colorado activity
evolving southeast through the evening across northeastern Kansas
and eventually into our far northwestern zones (Syracuse to Scott
City). We will maintain some Chance POPs in the far west-central
Kansas counties north of Hwy 50 and generally west of Hwy 283
through the evening.

Another MCS will either roll south-southeast out of Nebraska and
interact with the western MCS or remain a separate entity all
together and redevelop around 04-06Z across north central/central
Kansas along a strengthening zone of warm frontogenesis in the
850-750mb layer. We will have some 40 POPs from Hays to Pratt in the
05-12Z time frame, but these may need to be raised early this
evening if short term trends favor a more western scenario for
potential MCS. The overall severe weather threat looks fairly
minimal, despite a SLGT risk being issued by SPC. Any large hail
threat would be confined to areas of far west-central Kansas (but
more likely across northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas)
with strong straight-line winds to 65 mph the most likely threat
with any bowing segments during the mid to late evening hours. After
that, a very heavy rain threat will develop during the overnight
hours across central Kansas. It remains to be seen, though, how far
west the core of the nocturnal MCS will be. It seems most likely
this will stay across portions of central and south central Kansas
just east of our forecast area (east of a Hays to Pratt line).

Going in to the day Thursday, a warmer day is forecast with warmer
overall temperatures in the lower troposphere (to +29C at 850mb as
far east as the Hwy 283 corridor). This should allow surface
temperatures late afternoon reaching close to, if not 100F
(especially along/west of Hwy 83 where evapotransporation will be
less). A fairly strong gradient will yield a windier day with
south-southwest winds 20 to 23 knots sustained in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

For Friday into Sunday, a broad area of upper level high pressure
begins to weaken ahead of a strong upper level low moving southward
from Central Canada and into the Upper Midwest. Weak surface low
pressure will continue in far western Kansas then move slowly into
central Kansas by Sunday. Some moisture convergence along the trough
may be enough to set off a few thunderstorms mainly far west on
Friday then a slight chance into much of western Kansas into Sunday.
High temperatures will be warm and around 100 on Friday, and mid to
upper 90s Saturday, then low to mid 90s for Sunday. Overnight lows
will continue mild and in the low to mid 70s into Sunday morning.

For Monday into mid week next week, the upper level low and
associated cold upper trough will continue to build southward into
the Upper Midwest and Central Plains with a cooling trend. Highs
cool from around 90 on Monday into the 70s and 80s for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some small chances for thunderstorms continue with the
best chances with and behind a cold front on Monday night and
Tuesday. Overnight lows look to be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Winds will generally stay southerly with VFR conditions at
DDC/GCK through the period as a lee trough remains in the lee of
the Rockies. An outflow boundary will pass trough KGCK just after
06z (now) and could temporarily shift winds to northwest. At KHYS,
thunderstorms will be in vicinity through 08z as low to mid level
warm advection persists early this morning, with winds persisting
from the southeast. Even at KHYS, CIGS and VISBYS will generally be
VFR except briefly lower in any thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  72  98  72 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  98  71  99  71 /  10   0  10  20
EHA  98  71  97  71 /   0   0  10  20
LBL 100  71  99  72 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  93  72  99  73 /  10  10  20  20
P28  93  72  98  75 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch





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