Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 020600
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday evening)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016
Precip chances pick up a little tonight as short range models indicate
further deepening of the upper level trough dipping southward into
northern Mexico, resulting in an increasingly difluent southwest flow
aloft across the Western High Plains. Although drier air in the lower
levels will remain locked in across the high plains, all short range
models show some increased moisture aloft from a subtropical plume
lifting northward across the South Plains. Even with the bulk of the
system remaining well to our south, a strong +100kt jet is projected
to lift northeastward into much of Kansas late tonight while a very
light easterly upslope flow prevails across the Western High Plains.
As a result, precip is expected to develop across the South Plains this
evening then spread northward, potentially affecting portions of southwest
and south central Kansas. Based on model sounding vertical profiles,
light rain is possible early with any precip likely switching over to
snow overnight. With weak QPF indicated and drier air prevalent in
the lower levels, any snow accumulations will be light at best.
Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal today with little change to
the drier air mass across the high plains. Look for highs up into the
40s(F) to the lower 50s(F) once again this afternoon. Expect lows back
down into the 20s(F) Friday night with a few 30s(F) possible across
south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016
A chance of rain and snow exists Friday night into Saturday morning.
An upper level trof will remain well south of the forecast district,
however, there might be enough warm air advection and isentropic lift
for precipitation activity. This is expected mainly for the south. Thermo
profiles are marginal for snow, and if there is accumulation, it will
be very light. The next shot at precipitation comes next week as another
trof moves through. This trof is progged to be closer to the forecast
district, so higher precipitation chances are warranted. The fb pops
look fine for now. Additional snow accumulation is possible with this
second system, although how much is not known at this time.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Friday
evening. Light and variable winds will persist across western Kansas
through Friday evening as surface high pressure remains settled
across the Northern Rockies southeastward into the high plains of
eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 23 48 28 39 / 0 10 50 30
GCK 20 45 27 38 / 0 0 30 20
EHA 22 45 24 37 / 0 20 40 30
LBL 22 47 28 39 / 0 20 50 40
HYS 22 45 28 40 / 0 0 20 20
P28 27 52 34 43 / 0 10 50 40