Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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976
FXUS63 KDDC 231100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The general concern today is with pops. The evening thunderstorm complex
is moving out of the forecast district early this morning. There is
some spotty showers farther to the southwest. As a result, have broadbrushed
the area with slight pops. For this afternoon, some of the CAMs are
dry. This makes sense as there is some subsidence in the wake of a
departing synoptic trof across the Northern Plains. High pressure will
build in as well through the day. As a result, have lowered pops considerably
and kept towards a drier solution. There might be a few showers/thunderstorms
in the northwest zones this afternoon, but confidence is not high.
Low end slight pops look reasonable for now. Severe weather is not
expected as both instability and shear are very marginal. Lightning
would be the main threat. Otherwise, enjoy todays highs, which are
expected to be in the pleasant 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Pleasant weather will continue through the weekend with 70s and 80s
for highs. There maybe a slight chance of storms Sunday in the northwest
flow aloft pattern and some lower BL moisture forecast. The slight
to low end chance pops look reasonable for now. A broad ridge will
start to influence our weather by the beginning of the upcoming business
week and temperatures will trend to the hot/normal side. By mid week,
increasing BL moisture and a pattern more conducive for MCS activity
might evolve with higher probabilities of thunderstorms. Towards the
end of the long term domain, temps will be well in the 90s a few storms
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR through this forecast period. All precipitation has ended
across SW KS as of 11z, and the sky has mostly cleared. Some
models generate additional showers near some of the airports
through around 18z, but confidence is low on them even developing,
much less on any aviation impacts. Will carry no convective
mention in any of the TAFs today, with scattered cumulus this
afternoon. Strong NE winds expected at all airports for several
hours after sunrise, gusting 30-32 kts. Around 20z, NE winds will
begin to diminish as respectable surface high for late June
settles to near Syracuse by 00z. This surface ridge maintains
control tonight, providing VFR/SKC and light and variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  56  80  58 /  20  10   0  10
GCK  76  53  79  56 /  20   0  10  20
EHA  75  54  78  57 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  77  55  79  58 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  77  54  79  56 /  20   0  10  20
P28  81  57  82  60 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner



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