Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171816
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Weak northwesterly flow aloft will prevail over the central High
Plains today, in between an upper low over the eastern CONUS and
an upper ridge extending from the northern Rockies into southern
California. This pattern will remain in place through the next few
days. The center of the Arctic airmass that brought the cold
weather to the central Plains will continue to move southeast out
of the region today. With low level warm advection and increasing
thickness values, high temperatures today should warm into the
upper 30s across central and south central Kansas with upper 40s
to near 50 degrees possible along the Colorado border.

The warm advection pattern continues into tonight. Low temperatures
should only fall into the upper teens to around 20 which is near
normal. The exception will be around Elkhart where weak westerly
winds at night tend to hold temperatures up several degrees warmer
than surrounding locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

On Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge currently over the
western will spread east into the central part of the country with
the ridge eventually flattening out into a strong zonal flow pattern.
This will result in a continuation of the dry weather pattern with
increasingly warmer daytime high temperatures through Friday.

The GFS, Canadian and ECMWF models continue to show better run to
run and intermodel agreement with the strong shortwave/closed low
system that will move out of the Rockies and over the central
High Plains this weekend. This system moves out of the Rockies as
a fairly deep trough with an upper low closing off as it moves
through Colorado into Kansas. The ECMWF has the most southerly
track but still moves the upper low out along a KTAD-KHYS line on
Sunday with the associated vort track moving from the northwest
Texas Panhandle into central Kansas. The GFS and Canadian develop
and move the low out across northwest Kansas. Even with the more
southerly track of the ECMWF, the area of greatest potential for
precipitation would be southern Nebraska and northern Kansas.
Southern portions of the Dodge City forecast area, along the
Oklahoma border, would get dry-slotted. At any rate, the northwest
part of the forecast area from Syracuse to Hays could get some
measurable snow on Sunday as low level cold advection increases
and precipitation starts to fall. Conditions will be improving
fairly quickly behind this system as high pressure aloft builds
back into the central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

A complete VFR category forecast through 24 hours. Broad dry high
surface pressure over the southern Mississippi valley will
promote light south to southwesterly surface winds over western KS.
Could see a few gusts to near 20 knots briefly this afternoon,
but not common.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  19  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  17  56  22 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  24  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  18  57  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  17  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
P28  37  17  54  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell


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