Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only some
high cloud expected. Winds will be 15-25 kts during daytime
heating and 10-15 kts at night after the lower levels decouple.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  98  69  97 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  68  96  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  71  98  72  98 /   0   0   0  10
P28  71  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch


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