Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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087
FXUS63 KDDC 191100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Models this morning remain in good agreement with low clouds and
fog developing during the predawn hours. Based on model soundings
the areas where the near surface moisture will be deeper and
therefore longer to erode will be east of the Hays to Dodge City
to Meade line. This is also where some patchy dense fog will be
possible.

At this time based on the patchy nature of this dense fog and the
latest observations in south central Kansas have decided to hold
off issuing a dense fog advisory. Drivers this morning however
should be alert this morning for this potential and allow some
extra time this morning if traveling.

Sunday afternoon a surface boundary will move into western Kansas
as an upper level trough begins to exit the central Rockies and
move out into the Western High Plains. A few of the near term
convective models do indicate some late day convection will be
possible along this boundary in western Kansas, however these
models also appear to be the most aggressive with the low level
moisture return as late day instability begins to improve. All
models this morning do indicate improving lift and instability
late day ahead of this upper level trough but am currently leaning
towards focusing the better chances for convection late day along
this boundary a little further south where the better moisture,
and instability develops near the right exit region of a 250mb jet
as the 800mb to 700mb temperatures cool. This more favorable area
for convection will be south southwest Dodge City Sunday
afternoon. On Sunday night this area of lift and instability will
shift east as the upper level trough crosses western Kansas.Any
storm that do develop in western or south central Kansas will not
be severe.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

A surface cold front will cross western Kansas early Monday as an
upper level trough crosses the the Western High Plains. Some
cooler air will filter into western Kansas behind this front,
however what cool air the does return early in the day will not
last long based on the 850mb temperatures trend Monday afternoon
from the GFS and ECMWF. Based on 850mb temperatures from the GFS
and ECMWF at 00z Tuesday and improving down slope flow will
continue to favor highs a little cooler than the latest guidance
for all but extreme western Kansas. Still even favoring some
cooler than guidance temperatures the highs Monday afternoon will
still be 10 to near 15 degrees above the normal highs for this
time of year.

The cool down on Monday will be brief given the improving
westerly down slope flow Tuesday and Wednesday as the next,
stronger, upper level trough begins to cross the southwest United
States. Highs climbing back into the mid to upper 70s still appear
reasonable given the 850mb temperature trends from the GFS and
ECMWF at 00z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. .

On Thursday an area of low pressure will deepen across eastern
Colorado as the next, stronger, upper level storm system crosses
the Rockies and begins to move out into the West Central High
Plains. Windy conditions will be likely Thursday afternoon based
on the tight surface pressure gradient and low level winds
forecast across western Kansas. These winds when combined with the
low afternoon relative humidity values could result in elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions. In addition to the
increase fire danger levels Thursday afternoon there will also be
a chance for early evening thunderstorms in central Kansas based
on the forecast location of a surface boundary, moisture and
instability ahead of the eastward moving upper level system.

A cold front will cross western Kansas Thursday night as the
upper level trough quickly moves across the Central Plains. Behind
this cold front strong gusty winds will develop late Thursday
night and continue through the day on Friday. Based on the tight
surface pressure gradient and a 45 to 50 knot 850mb winds
currently forecast across western Kansas during the day on Friday
sustained north winds of 30 to 35 mph with higher gust still
appear likely. These strong north winds will usher in some colder
air back into western Kansas and at this time mixing the 850mb
temperatures from the GFS and ECMWF at 00z Saturday down to the
surface would suggest highs on Friday will struggle to climb into
the low to mid 40s.

There will be chance for snow Thursday night into early Friday
across northern Kansas. At this time it is too early to tell how
much snow will fall late week but based on the moisture and 850mb
to 700mb frontogenesis currently forecast either in central
Nebraska or north central Kansas it would appear that some
measurable precipitation will be possible late week. At this time
given the uncertainty on where this forcing will develop late week
it is too early to tell if snow will occur near the I-70 corridor
or if it does how much will fall. As a result will continue to
stay close to the previous forecast on snow chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Immediate concern is fog trends this morning. Low clouds and fog still
possible across the terminals and vis has been decreasing early this
morning. Will continue around 1sm for KDDC/KGCK and 2sm for KHYS. Improvement
back to VFR conditions expected later as low clouds and fog dissipates.
Otherwise, winds will increase southerly 15-25 kt through the afternoon,
and decrease in magnitude late tonight. VCSH and even ISO TS could
be possible, mainly for KHYS late this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  46  70  36 /  20  30   0   0
GCK  69  40  67  33 /  10  20   0   0
EHA  68  39  67  35 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  70  40  69  33 /  10  20   0   0
HYS  68  48  68  37 /  10  30   0   0
P28  64  52  72  39 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden



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