Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
418 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

There is a lot of uncertainty in the mesoscale details of the
forecast today. The big convective cluster that has been nearly
stationary since midnight in northern Kansas still had not
developed enough of a cold pool to organize into a forward
propagating MCS as of 09Z. Most of the short term convective
allowing models suggest that the cluster will begin propagating
southeast during the early morning hours with outflow spreading
back west of Dodge City by late morning. A subtle upper level
trough that appears in WV imagery in central New Mexico should
propagate into western Kansas by early afternoon. A surface
cyclone in southeast Colorado should remain nearly stationary, and
the models suggest that a dryline will mix east into southwest
Kansas and may reach a line from Garden City to Liberal by mid
afternoon. A subsynoptic cyclone likely will exist near the
intersection of the old outflow boundary with the dryline
somewhere near Dodge City late this afternoon. Extremely moist air
will continue to flow into western Kansas, and the mid level warm
pool will keep convection from firing until late afternoon.
Convergence along the old outflow boundary and the dryline with
afternoon heating and some marginal upper level divergence with
the weak upper level trough should be sufficient to initiate
thunderstorms. Although high level flow is not terribly strong,
30-35 knot shear from surface to 6 km should support rotating
updrafts. As such, a few supercells are likely late this afternoon
before the thunderstorms organize upscale into a MCS that will
propagate across southern Kansas during the evening hours. A
tornado is possible where low level shear is maximized near the
intersection of the outflow boundary and the dryline.

The vigorous upper level trough evident on satellite imagery over
California early this morning should eject rapidly northeast as
the next trough rotating around the gyre in the western United
States drops southeast from near 40N/130W into southern California
by Wednesday morning. The trough currently over California should
reach the Dakotas by Wednesday morning, and falling pressures in
the northern Plains will veer the low level flow in western Kansas
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The deep moisture should be scoured
out of western Kansas on Wednesday, and temperatures likely will
warm to near 90 with H8 temperatures in the mid 20C range. The
potential for thunderstorms Wednesday is minimal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

An active flow regime will continue with a mean long wave trough
in the western United States and ridging in the eastern part of
the country through early June. Minor waves will continue to
ripple through the southwest flow aloft and provide opportunities
for thunderstorm development nearly every day. The upper level
cyclone that digs into California Wednesday will move into eastern
Colorado by Friday morning. Surface cyclogenesis will occur in
eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon, and low level moisture should
surge back into southwest Kansas by Thursday afternoon. Another
round of thunderstorms is likely Thursday afternoon near and east
of the dryline position and near a weak stationary front across
northern Kansas. A Pacific cold front will move into western
Kansas Friday, and additional thunderstorm development can be
expected under the cold pool with the upper level cyclone.
Saturday probably will be quiet, but another minor wave in the
southwest flow will approach the Central Plains on Sunday. Yet
another minor wave should approach Kansas Monday afternoon.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages with highs in the
80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s through the week. There is
little indication that a strong subtropical high will build into
the Plains through at least mid June, although there may be a
brief period of anticyclogenesis in the central part of the
country around 9-11 June. An active flow regime characterized by a
mean trough in the western United States and ridging in the
eastern part of the country appears to be the base state of the
atmosphere for the foreseeable future.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A weak stationary front extending from eastern Nebraska across
northwest Kansas into a surface low in eastern Colorado will move
little today. A cluster of thunderstorms at the nose of the low
level jet in northern Kansas will propagate to the east-southeast
and should be east of HYS by 11Z. Patchy stratus with bases
010-020 will become widespread by 09z and persist through the
early morning hours. Visibilities may be restricted to 3-5SM in
mist around sunrise. The stratus should erode during the morning
hours to sct to bkn030-040 by 18Z. Low level winds generally will
be from the south-southeast at 15-20 kts but will be variable and
gusty near the thunderstorm cluster in northern Kansas.

A dryline will mix east to near DDC this afternoon, and severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop near DDC around 21Z and spread
east into central Kansas during the evening hours. Low level winds
will veer above the surface Tuesday night, and Tuesday night may
be free of stratus.


DDC  84  61  89  56 /  50  50  10   0
GCK  85  58  89  53 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  88  55  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  88  56  91  54 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  80  62  88  57 /  50  30  10  10
P28  84  65  91  66 /  40  50  10  10


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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