Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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970
FXUS63 KDDC 281717
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1217 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

An upper low will continue to drop into the Ohio Valley today
pushing a back door cold front across western Kansas. Light west
winds will shift to the northeast with the front at 10 to 20 mph.
Expect plenty of sunshine today with highs in the mid to upper 70s
from Hays to Garden City and Dodge, with warmer low 80s from Liberal
to Syracuse and west.

For tonight, mostly clear skies prevail, with a cooler ridge of high
pressure moving into western Kansas. Light east winds become light
and variable. Lows will be colder and in the low to mid 40s. Mid to
upper 40s will be across far western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper level ridging will be in control across the High Plains into
Friday, then begin to breakdown ahead of the next strong upper level
trough. With this breakdown, some weak shortwaves will provide only
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late Friday into
Sunday. By Monday the large upper trough will be pushing into the
Rockies and Central Plains with upper level southwesterly flow
increasing. With increasing layer shear, a dryline, and good
moisture flux ahead of the dryline, some strong to severe storms
look possible by Monday afternoon and evening. The upper trough
and an associated cold front will then push across western Kansas
early on Tuesday with most of the storms pushing east of the
region. Highs will warm gradually from around 70 on Thursday to
the mid 70s and lower 80s into Sunday. By Monday highs could
approach 90 ahead of the cold front. Lows will gradually warm
from the 40s into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Surface high pressure building into the central High Plains
will bring northeasterly winds at around 10 to 15 knots to the
terminals this afternoon. Winds should diminish to less than 10
knots between 21z-00z and become more easterly. A dry airmass
will result in VFR skies and visibilities through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  43  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  82  42  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  84  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  84  45  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  79  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Gerard



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