Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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371
FXUS63 KDDC 190702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
202 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SIGNIFICANT H5 VORT
MAX IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SETTING UP THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES, THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS
A +70KT JET CLIMBS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE, THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ENHANCE MORE OF AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. AS A RESULT, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH LIMITED, NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT WITH MUCAPE VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING TO ABOVE 500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF SOME INSTABILITY, EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LESS LIKELY, EVEN WITH MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONSIDERING THE EXTENDED
DURATION OF THIS EVENT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW VALUES UP AROUND 1 INCH. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAN OTHERS. PERIODS OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE, COMBINED WITH LIKELY PRECIP AND OVERCAST
SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY AS MUCH AS 20 TO
25 DEGREES. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 50S(F) TODAY WITH
THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT
LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME
BEING TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT) AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSES INTO
KANSAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
REGION. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRY TO SPIN UP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS OKLAHOMA, WITH THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
ADJACENT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE 12-HR PERIOD
FROM 6PM TUESDAY NIGHT TO 6AM WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY EXCEED
ONE INCH IN SOME SPOTS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, CHILLY AIR BY MID-MAY STANDARDS WILL BE
COMING DOWN WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. COOL MOIST AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
YIELD LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY, AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT EXCEED THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS. WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, BUT THE COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND WITH A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLOW MODIFICATION OF
THIS AIRMASS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL ONLY BE
RECIRCULATING THE REMNANT COOL, MOIST AIRMASS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
COMING IN OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WILL AID IN
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE 850-700MB ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS.

WIDESPREAD COOL TEMPERATURES, LOW CLOUDS, AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY MORNING ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL ESCAPE THE COOL
AIRMASS WITH THE TRUE WARM, MOIST SECTOR (NECESSARY FOR SEVERE LOCAL
STORMS) REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH (FOLLOWING THE ECMWF). ANY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY FOR THIS
REASON. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES
LIKE COMANCHE AND BARBER, BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS WILL BE THE THREAT AREAS ONCE AGAIN FOR
SEVERE LOCAL STORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TOWARD DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIP WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY BRINGING ABOUT MVFR
CIGS TO KGCK, KDDC, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS KHYS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MVFR
VSBYS ARE LIKELY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WHILE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY 10 TO 20KT DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  43  58  42 / 100  90  10  10
GCK  54  43  57  41 / 100  90  10  10
EHA  57  43  59  44 / 100  50  10  10
LBL  57  43  59  44 / 100  70  10  10
HYS  53  42  56  41 /  90  90  20  10
P28  63  52  62  46 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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