Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Widespread stubborn stratus across the majority of SW KS this
afternoon, with partial clearing SW of a Syracuse-Liberal line.
Stratus will hold tough for most zones through sunset, and
temperatures will struggle into the lower to mid 50s across the
eastern CWA. Winds will trend SEly toward sunset and become gusty
as pressure gradient tightens in response to initial lee
cyclogenesis along I-25 in Colorado.

Any breaks in the clouds late today will quickly fill back in this
evening. Increasingly moist upslope flow will produce a lowering
stratus deck, with areas of fog and drizzle reducing visibility.
Do not currently expect the need for a dense fog advisory, as
models are not keen on forecasting widespread visibility of 1/4
mile, but will advise this evening`s shift to monitor. Areas of
drizzle are expected, along with some light rain showers, with
some places measuring 0.01-0.02 inch QPF. With thick clouds,
dewpoints rising, and SE winds elevated, temperatures tonight will
obviously be mild, holding in the 40s.

Thursday...Very windy and much warmer. Stratus, fog and drizzle
are expected to erode quickly by late morning, as the expected
strong surface cyclone deepens in eastern Colorado. South winds
will be quite strong in the afternoon, averaging 25-35 mph with
gusts near 45 mph. Expecting winds to remain below high wind
criteria, but some locations may flirt with it during the 5-7 pm
timeframe as 850 winds crank to 50 kts. Strong warm advection will
send temperatures soaring Thursday afternoon, with lower 80s
common. Moisture advection will also persist, with a dryline
expected to sharpen across the western counties through 7 pm.
Most of Thursday will be dry, as mounting instability is capped by
a strong inversion aloft. However, most models initiate convection
over or near SW KS by 7 pm, as intense forcing approaches from the
SW. Cape and bulk shear will support supercell thunderstorms by
6-7 pm, and the threat of severe weather is discussed in the new
SPC Day 2 convective outlook. The primary risk from thunderstorms
on the dryline will be focused across the western zones Thursday
evening, with hail up to golf ball size the primary threat.
Moisture will be less than optimal, and with the resulting higher
LCLs, storms may have a tendency to generate strong downdrafts
near 60 mph. With ambient 850 mb flow near 60 kts at the time of
initiation, the damaging wind threat will need to be monitored
closely, as this momentum may be easily transferred to the
surface. If supercells can initiate around sunset, they will have
an opportunity to become tornadic during the 7-9 pm time frame, as
they encounter a very strong low level jet.

As upper low intensifies over SE Colorado Thursday night (after
midnight), expecting thunderstorms and rainfall to end, as strong
dryslot surges into SW KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Chances for precip pick up late Thursday as medium range models indicate
a strong upper level trough of low pressure pushing eastward across
the Four Corners Region early in the period creating an increasingly
difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile,
a south to southeasterly flow will persist across the high plains as
a developing surface low deepens lee of the Rockies. This will draw
moisture up into central and portions of southwest Kansas ahead of
a sharpening dryline attendant to the surface low in eastern Colorado.
Dynamic support aloft will become more favorable as the southwest flow
inensifies across the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma into western Kansas
downstream of the approaching trough axis. Based on timing of the upper
level system and a strong afternoon cap, thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the dryline more into Thursday evening as it begins
to edge slowly eastward. There is growing confidence for at least
marginally severe storms with a axis of instability building just east
of the dryline with MLCAPE values upward of 1,000 J/Kg, not to mention
short fuse model soundings showing 0-6km shear values of 50 to 60kt.
This is sufficient enough to support potential supercells with any
thunderstorm development once the erosion of the cap occurs. Drier
conditions remain likely over the weekend as the strong upper level
system pushes further eastward into the Ohio River Valley while upper
level ridging moves across the Intermountain West into the Western
High Plains.

A deepening surface low across eastern Colorado will create a strong
southerly flow across western Kansas enhancing warm air advection into
the area, pushing H85 temperatures into the upper teens(C) across central
Kansas to the lower 20s(C) closer to the Colorado border. Expect highs
generally up into the lower to mid 80s(F) Thursday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures return Friday as a cold front begins pushing through western
Kansas allowing for colder air to begin filtering southward into the
area. Based on the projected timing of the frontal passage, a widespread
range of highs are likely with temperatures ranging from only the 50s(F)
in west central Kansas to the 70s(F) in south central Kansas. More
seasonal temperatures can be expected to kick of the weekend Saturday
as a much cooler air mass settles in across the high plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Widespread MVFR stratus will continue into this evening.
Ceilings may improve briefly at GCK for several hours late this
afternoon, before returning tonight, but confidence is low. East
winds will become SE and increase to 15-25 kts through evening.
High confidence that flight categories will degrade at all
airports after 06z Thursday, as moisture increases in upslope
flow. LIFR cigs status cigs, and reduced vis in BR/FG/DZ expected
06-12z Thursday. Only included LLWS for GCK around 09z Thursday.
Cigs and vis will improve after 15z Thursday. Also after
15z Thursday, strong south winds will impact aviation with gusts
near 40 kts expected.


DDC  56  47  85  51 /  10  20  20  40
GCK  58  46  82  47 /   0  10  30  60
EHA  67  46  83  44 /  10  10  30  50
LBL  62  45  86  47 /  10  10  30  60
HYS  55  47  77  54 /  10  20  20  30
P28  57  51  81  55 /  10  20  20  40




LONG TERM...JJohnson
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