Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Precip chances will continue for portions of southwest and south
central Kansas tonight as short range models indicate a closed off
upper level low shifting eastward across extreme northern Mexico
setting up an increasingly difluent flow aloft across the South
Plains. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will backfill across the
Northern and Central Plains behind a frontal boundary in the Texas
Panhandle pushing further south into north Texas overnight, in
turn re-establishing an easterly upslope flow across eastern
Colorado. Even with a relatively weak flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains, thunderstorms are expected to develop
across eastern Colorado late this afternoon and evening as an H5
vort maxima is projected to eject out of the Colorado Rockies. The
storms will then spread slowly eastward toward the Kansas border
overnight with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms possibly
drifting into extreme western Kansas before dissipating as they
move into a more stable air mass. Additionally, a few post-frontal
showers may develop as far north as the Oklahoma Panhandle and
extreme southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas
tonight as the closed off upper low approaching the South Plains
interacts with the frontal boundary advancing southward into north
Texas. Severe weather is unlikely.

Near normal temperatures can be expected tonight as surface high
pressure moving eastward into the Northern Plains reinforces the
cooler air mass across the Western High Plains. Even with increased
cloud cover overnight, look for lows down into the 50s(F) early
Wednesday morning. The air mass will remain relatively unchanged
Wednesday as a result of an easterly upslope flow and increased
cloud cover across western Kansas. Highs only up into the 70s(F)
can be expected Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Drier weather is in store for the remainder of the week. The upper
trough over the southern Plains on Wednesday will slowly meander
east and southeast through Texas. Another fast moving shortwave
trough will move into the northern Rockies on Thursday. As this
wave continues east, strong upper level ridging will develop over
the western states while the shortwave undergoes an anticyclonic
wave break over the Midwest and Great Lakes region by this weekend.
The central High Plains will come under northwesterly flow aloft.
Details in meso to synoptic scale features in this flow pattern
become a little more uncertain between the different models. There
could be a few opportunities for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
moving off the front range into parts of western Kansas late this
weekend. This pattern would support that possibility but a lot of
uncertainty remains. Temperatures will slowly increase to around
seasonal levels through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Light north to northeast winds will persist
across southwest and central Kansas through tonight as surface
high pressure moves slowly eastward across the high plains of
eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  53  75  53 /  40  30  10  10
GCK  74  52  75  52 /  30  30  20  10
EHA  74  53  73  54 /  40  40  20  10
LBL  76  53  75  53 /  40  40  20  10
HYS  74  52  77  52 /  40  10  10   0
P28  78  58  77  56 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson



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