Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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538
FXUS63 KDDC 281005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
405 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

...Updated Short Term, Long Term, Fire Weather Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Overnight surface analysis showed a small surface low centered
across south central Nebraska, which will bring a cold front down in
its wake this morning across western Kansas. Surface wind was
already shifting to the northwest at Scott City at 09z. With the
synoptic scale trough axis still out over the Desert Southwest, a
new surface low will develop along/just south of the front later
this morning across far southwest Kansas. This new wave along the
front will slow the front down, becoming quasi-stationary by midday.
The question is where exactly this will take place -- as just south
of this boundary, southwest winds will be very strong at 25 to 40
mph with gusts to 50. The greatest confidence in this is right along
the Oklahoma border from Liberal to Englewood. This is also where
temperatures should exceed the lower to mid 70s. It will be quite
the gradient, as about 100 to 150 miles north of this front,
afternoon temperatures will be upwards of 20 degrees cooler with
north winds at around 15 mph.

As we head toward sunset, the cold advection will continue to
advance south and cold frontogenesis will strengthen as the new
surface low takes better shape as it moves into south central
Kansas. Winds will increase quite a bit out of the north, behind the
low, with speeds peaking 02-08Z at 22-25 knots sustained (earlier in
the northwest, later in the southeast). As far as precipitation
goes, the progressive nature of this system along with the lack of
development in the 800-600mb layer means that there will only be
about a 3-5 hour window of only light precipitation along the zone
of cold frontogenesis in that layer -- most likely across central
Kansas, where POPs will be around 50 percent. Maximum QPF is
forecast 5 to 10 hundredths of an inch from roughly Jetmore to
Larned to St. John. Much of this precipitation will fall when
temperatures are still forecast to be in the lower to mid 40s, so
much (if not all) of this precipitation will be in the form of rain.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

The brief bout of cold advection will not last long. In fact, on
Wednesday, northwest winds will have downslope trajectory off the
high terrain of Wyoming, so afternoon temperatures will still reach
low to mid 50s for most of southwest KS. A tight gradient in the 850-
700mb layer through at least early afternoon will result in surface
winds in the low 20s knots sustained, given deep mixing.

Thursday will be the least windy day of the period with temperatures
in the mid to upper 50s (around 60 in the Red Hills). Eventually by
Friday, the lee trough will form again given the continued cross-
mountain upper level zonal flow pattern. This will lead to windier
conditions, although the trough axis may extend far enough east such
that the strongest MSLP gradient and winds will be confined to
central and south central Kansas. This could also be the case on
Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Each day will build on the previous as
far as daytime temperatures go, such that by Sunday we could see
some upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s in the Red Hills. The main jet
will be well to the north over the weekend into early next week,
which will not be favorable for precipitation across western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

During this forecast period, winds will be shifting as a
formidable front moves south in response to an approaching storm
system. Winds will slowly veer from the southwest overnight to the
west by mid to late morning. Around midday, winds will continue to
shift around to the northwest, although initially, speeds are not
expected to be all that strong -- generally in the 10 to 13 knot
range. Winds will then pick up fairly significantly late in the
period (Tuesday Night), as cold frontogenesis really ramps up.
Winds will likely peak around 22 to 26 knots through much of the
mid to late evening hours out of the north to northwest. It does
not appear there will be any MVFR or lower flight category,
although it is possible some MVFR conditions could clip HYS for a
few hours behind the front in the 03-06z time frame at the end of
this forecast period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Critical fire weather will likely develop right along the Oklahoma
border from Liberal to Englewood this afternoon, but probably not
much farther north of there. Confidence is high enough in this area
to warrant issuance of a Red Flag warning, given afternoon winds of
25 to 40 mph from the west southwest and minimum relative humidity
reaching around 15 percent for at least a couple of hours. Beyond
today, elevated to near-critical conditions will develop again on
Wednesday in very dry northwest winds. Red flag conditions may be
possible for some areas on Wednesday. Friday through Sunday also
look to be aggressive fire behavior days in the elevated category if
not potentially Red Flag once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  29  53  24 /  20  30   0   0
GCK  58  27  50  21 /  20  30   0   0
EHA  67  25  51  25 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  72  26  53  23 /  10  20   0   0
HYS  55  29  49  24 /  20  30   0   0
P28  77  33  56  27 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CST this
evening for KSZ086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid



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