Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS  OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.

A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE  EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST AND SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST.

MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS DRIER THAN COMPARED TO ITS 00Z COUNTERPART, AND MOST
OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT COULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST, SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STUCK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
ALSO TO BLEND IN WITH THE DAYS 4-7 SOLUTION. THE BEST PLACE FOR THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TO THE WEST,
LOCATIONS MAY BE SHORT CHANGED ON PRECIP IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES AND THERE
IS TOO MUCH SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM ALONG WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

BEYOND MONDAY, WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER
AIR MASS TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60. AND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WILL SEE CONTINUED MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE SUPERBLEND
HAS SLIGHT POPS IN A WEEK FROM NOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE LOCATION IS FORECAST
FAIRLY FAR SOUTH, SO THE LOW POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  56  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  31  62  42  75 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  39  66  44  76 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  33  63  39  73 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  27  53  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
P28  28  54  41  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH



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