Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131802
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Although drier conditions are expected to persist during the period,
there is an outside shot for extremely light precip across extreme
western Kansas late tonight as an upper level shortwave in the
Northern Rockies drops south-southeast into the Central Rockies and
the Western High Plains. Much drier air will persist in the
lower/mid levels through late this evening, but short range model
soundings show vertical profiles beginning to moisten and nearing
saturation late tonight as the shortwave drops into Colorado.
Considering extreme weak QPF signals are present, will retain a
slight chance for light snow across west central and extreme
southwest Kansas for early Thursday morning. A secondary upper level
shortwave will drop south across the Dakotas into Nebraska and
Kansas Thursday afternoon resulting in an additional slight chance
for precip across central Kansas late in the period.

Colder air will filter into western Kansas tonight in wake of a cold
frontal passage earlier today. Expect lows well down into the 30s(F)
again tonight with the upper 20s(F) possible in some locations.
Colder air will spread southward across western Kansas through the
day Thursday lowering H85 temperatures down to around 0C. Should see
highs only up into the 40s(F) Thursday afternoon with near 50F still
possible in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The next shortwave trough will move south along the front range of
the Rockies and adjacent High Plains of Colorado Thursday morning.
Model qpf fields try to develop some light precipitation over far
southwest Kansas during the morning hours. Model soundings show
the atmosphere moistening up through a deep layer but both the GFS
and NAM show the best mid level vertical motion associated with
this wave staying west of the KS/CO border. Have backed off on
Superblend pops but will maintain at least a slight chance for light
snow during the morning hours. Another chunk of shortwave energy will
be diving south through the High Plains Thursday afternoon, bringing
a slight chance for light rain to areas of central Kansas mainly along
the I-70 corridor. Max temperatures from the Superblend for Thursday
are now in the mid 40s which looks good given the expected cloudiness.

Western Kansas will see a few mild and quiet days to round out the
week. By Saturday night, another strong shortwave trough will be dropping
out of the northern Rockies toward the central Plains. This system
will help dislodge an upper low over the Gulf of California back across
Texas and the southern Mississippi Valley by Saturday night and Sunday.
This system will likely be too far southeast to provide any moisture
for the forecast area. There will be a slight chance for rain or snow
across central Kansas as the northern Rockies wave moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Thursday
morning. North-northwest winds 20 to 30kt will persist through late
this afternoon behind a cold front pushing southward across southwest
and south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Localized gusts up
to 35kt are likely across central Kansas where winds will be the
strongest. Winds will subside this evening as the pressure gradient
across western Kansas relaxes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  29  46  21 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  59  29  45  20 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  60  29  43  22 /   0  20  20   0
LBL  61  31  45  20 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  58  29  44  22 /   0   0  20  10
P28  64  32  49  24 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson



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