Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270106
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
806 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Have made updates to take out thunderstorms and leave rain shower
chances in for later tonight with the cold front. Current obs and
radar showing the best instability with higher dewpoints will now
stay east of our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across central and
potentially eastern portions of southwest Kansas this evening
as short range models indicate an extremely strong closed off
upper level low lifting northward across eastern Wyoming tonight.
Meanwhile, a series of H5 vort maxima will cycle northeast into
the high plains of western Kansas within an increasingly divergent
flow this evening as the trough axis pivots, becoming more negatively
tilted. Near the surface, a deepening low across eastern
Colorado...with an attendant warm front stretching into northern
Kansas...is projected to dislodge into western Kansas this
evening while an established dryline anchored across central
Kansas is expected to retreat somewhat across south central Kansas.
Ahead of the dryline...strong moisture advection within a prevailing
southerly flow is pushing surface dewpoints well into the 60s(F),
further increasing low/mid level instability. Short range model
soundings point to SBCAPE values upward of 3000 to 4000 J/KG
initially across eastern south central Kansas with favorable
vertical shear profiles, not to mention a left exit region to the
upper level jet setting up across central Kansas through early
this evening. As a result, thunderstorm development is expected
in the vicinity of the dryline late this afternoon with westward
development possible across south central Kansas throughout the
evening hours. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threat, however, tornadoes are possible with the strongest
storms.

Much cooler temperatures can be expected for lows tonight, at least
across west central and portions of southwest Kansas, as the
aforementioned cold front begins to push through western Kansas late
tonight. Colder air will spill into extreme western Kansas toward
daybreak Wednesday with the 0C H85 isotherm dropping as far south as
northwest Kansas. Considering much drier air has already spread across
extreme southwest Kansas, look for lows down into the 30s(F) across
west central Kansas to the 40s(F) and possibly the 50s(F) southeast
toward south central Kansas. The colder air will continue to filter
southward into western Kansas Wednesday lowering H85 temperatures
below 10C across central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest
Kansas. Depending on lingering cloud cover, highs may struggle to
reach the 60s(F) in central Kansas with 60s(F) more likely further
southwest. Highs in the lower 70s(F) are still possible closer to
the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Drier conditions are likely Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak
upper level ridge of high pressure moves east across the Central
Plains. Factoring in the drier air mass migrating southward into
western Kansas combined with a weaker flow aloft, chances for precip
will be nearly non-existent early in the period. Precip chances
pick up Thursday night into Friday as an upper level trough of low
pressure moves eastward into the Four Corners Region, setting up a
divergent flow aloft across the high plains of western Kansas.
Meanwhile, the GFS and ECMWF both project a virtually stalled
frontal boundary extending eastward generally across the Texas
Panhandle from a surface low with an easterly upslope flow
developing across southwest and central Kansas. As a result,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region late
in the week and potentially into the early part of the weekend as
the upper level trough begins to lift northeast across the high
plains by Saturday.

Broad surface high pressure shifting slowly eastward across the
Northern Plains will influence an easterly upslope flow across
western Kansas Thursday and Friday, reinforcing a cooler air mass
settled across the region with H85 temperatures hovering around to a
little below 10C. Depending on the extent of any cloud cover, highs
are only expected to reach the 60s(F) with the mid to upper 50s(F) a
possibility considering any prolonged cloud cover, not to mention
precip. The cooler pattern will likely persist into the weekend as
another cold front is projected to push through western Kansas
early in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A gust front from high based showers had moved across Garden to
Dodge with southwest to west winds of 28-38kt. These strong winds
will continue through 01-02Z then become light and variable. A
cold front around 06-08Z will switch winds to the northwest at
15-25kt with some MVFR cigs possible and light rain showers.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  65  41  65 /  30  10   0  10
GCK  43  65  38  64 /  20  10   0  10
EHA  42  65  38  66 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  43  65  40  68 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  46  63  38  62 /  30  40   0  10
P28  52  72  45  70 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kruse
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse



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