Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231757
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A northwest flow aloft will develop across the Western High Plains
tonight as ridging across the Great Basin continues to build.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain in control from the
Upper Midwest down into the Central Plains. With a weaker flow aloft
and a stalled frontal boundary remaining situated down near the Red
River Valley, what little chance there is for precip should stay
near and along the Oklahoma border this evening. Otherwise, drier
conditions can be expected through late Monday afternoon. Decreasing
cloud cover and the surface high across the Upper Midwest reinforcing
the air mass across the high plains will allow temperatures to drop
into the 60s(F) for lows tonight. A few lower 70s(F) may still be
possible in south central Kansas. Lee side troughing will develop
Monday helping to bring more of a southeasterly flow about to western
Kansas with H85 temperatures ranging from the mid 20s(C) in central
Kansas to the upper 20s(C) closer to the Colorado border. Under mostly
sunny skies, should see highs well up into the 90s(F) Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A fairly active flow pattern will persist through the extended
period. The axis of the mid/upper level high pressure will persist
more or less from the Great Basin across Oklahoma into the
southeastern states while the strongest westerly flow aloft will
continue along the Canadian border into the Great Lakes region.
Another closed upper level low pressure system is progged to move
east across south central Canada around Tuesday and Wednesday with
the southern end of an associated upper trough brushing through
Nebraska late Wednesday. This will push another cold front south
into Kansas on Wednesday and into Oklahoma and west Texas on
Thursday. The latest FB output produces 40-50 percent pops along
the front by Wednesday evening which is reasonable given the
amount of low level moisture across the area ahead of the front.
Deep layer shear is fairly weak although there will be moderate
instability in place. There could be a few isolated severe storms
with damaging winds being the main threat but more likely, there
will be an increased potential for flooding given the slow moving
nature of any storms that develop.

The latter part of the week and next weekend will see the upper
level high pressure retrograding into the western states with near
meridional flow over the central Plains. Thursday into Saturday
will be fairly cool by July standards. The going forecast has
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s which may be too warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Light and variable winds will persist through tonight
with surface high pressure remaining across the Upper Midwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  65  94  70 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  91  63  93  70 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  90  65  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  92  65  93  71 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  92  65  95  72 /   0  10  10  10
P28  94  70  96  72 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson



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