Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

An upper level low pressure system over central Nebraska early
this afternoon will lift rapidly to the north northeast into
northern Minnesota by midday Sunday. Associated surface low will
move out as well. High pressure building east across the central
High Plains tonight. Broken stratocumulus layer has been hanging
on this afternoon largely in part due to the cyclonic low level
wind flow pattern currently in place across western Kansas. Skies
should clear fairly rapidly with the loss of daytime heating over
southern parts of the forecast area with areas farther north soon
to follow as the low level flow becomes more anticyclonic this
evening. The going low temperature forecast has lows in the lower
40s in most locations. Central and west central portions of the
state, generally along and north of Highway 96, could dip into the
mid and upper 30s with dewpoints forecast to stay above 32F. This
should keep frost from being a problem although couldn`t totally
rule it out in a few isolated low lying areas. At any rate, after
a cool night last night, anyone with sensitive plants will likely
already be taking protective measures as necessary.

Sunday will see more sunshine. Daytime heating and low level warm
advection should help get temperatures back up into the mid 70s. A
weak disturbance will be moving out over the central High Plains
in the northwest flow aloft. The GFS shows some limited on the order
of 500-700 j/kg over far southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon. In addition,
deep layer shear is expected to increase to around 50 knots. A lot
of the models are showing some precipitation developing over the
southwest tomorrow afternoon and continuing into the evening. Think
the current precipitation forecast look reasonable.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

A better chance for thunderstorms will be in store for Monday. Models
show a shortwave trough, currently moving into the Intermountain West,
moving out over the central High Plains Monday afternoon. Shear and
instability will be increasing with 0-1km MUCape values around 1500
j/kg with 30-40 kts of shear. Could be enough to get some isolated
severe storms during the afternoon that could contain quarter to half
dollar size hail and 60 mph winds. Northwest flow aloft is progged
to continue over the region into Tuesday with another weak shortwave
dropping southeast over the region. This could bring another
chance for thunderstorms to parts of southwest Kansas Tuesday
afternoon. The middle part of the week will see an upper level
ridge moving over the central Plains. This will allow the area to
dry out after the recent rains with temperatures moderating back
into the upper 70s and 80s. By late week, slight chances for
thunderstorms will return as the upper ridge moves east of the
region and another trough digs into the northern Rockies with
increasing southwesterly flow over the central High Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Cigs will lower between 8 and 10 kft
as a weather disturbance moves through later. VCTS and CB groups for
KGCK/KLBL/KDDC in association with this disturbance. Winds will be
fairly light and variable through early morning and becoming light
S/SW 5-15 kt today.


DDC  42  73  52  71 /   0  30  40  50
GCK  40  73  50  72 /  10  30  40  30
EHA  42  74  49  70 /  10  50  60  30
LBL  44  77  52  71 /  10  40  60  50
HYS  37  73  51  72 /   0  20  40  40
P28  44  76  54  73 /   0  20  30  40




LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.