Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 141755
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Plentiful sunshine and boundary layer moisture (dewpoints in the
60s) will keep instability in place through this evening. 12z NAM
forecasts CAPE of 2000 J/kg widespread by peak heating, locally
higher. The problem is the triggering mechanisms necessary for
convection are nebulous, weak and hard to identify. HRRR has shown
some consistency developing thunderstorms along an outflow
boundary along the I-70 corridor by peak heating. In the absence
of strong forcing, orographic forcing and the higher terrain will
become the primary focusing mechanism through this evening.
Confident that convection will fire in the vicinity of the Raton
Mesa soon, with subsequent propogation SE toward the TX/OK
Panhandles. SPC`s marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities for this
scenario just SW of SW KS look reasonable. 12z NAM also shows this
solution, which would keep impacts limited to nil in SW KS. With
moderate high CAPE and little shear/forcing, can`t rule out a
thunderstorm at any location, but the odds are very low. Kept pop
grids limited and conservative in the 20-30% range. Lows tonight
in the 60s (probably holding near 70 SE of Dodge City).

Tuesday...Stronger S/SE surface winds (averaging 15-25 mph) will
maintain boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s. Southerly 850 mb
flow increases progressively through the afternoon, near 25 kts,
increasing further to near 40 kts with a modest low level jet
Tuesday evening. NAM responds to this by forecasting stronger
instability late Tuesday, with CAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. During
daylight Tuesday, forcing is still progged to be weak and less
than obvious, so kept slight chances for most locales. Convection
appears much more likely Tuesday night into early Wednesday, as
as a midlevel trough approaches from the central Rockies, and a
frontal boundary sinks south into SW KS. NAM/GFS MOS pops show a
unamimous increase Tuesday evening, with ECMWF solutions strongly
hinting at MCS generation over at least central Kansas through
Tuesday night. Given the largely nocturnal timing of Tuesday and
Wednesday`s expected convection, primary expectation is one of
strong to severe multicell convective clusters producing
marginally severe hail/wind. Highest risk will be near and NW of
our NW zones, as SPC slight risk delineates. Temperatures Tuesday
afternoon very near mid-August normals, within a few degress of
90.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

The approaching upper level trough and upper level jet streak
along with abundant low level moisture will set the stage for
thunderstorm activity Tuesday and Thursday across the high plains
region. Severe storms can`t be ruled out with the best chance
being Tuesday. Wednesday may be dry after the lead upper level
disturbance passes and pushes a weak cold front through western
Kansas. The next upper level disturbance will pass on Thursday
with additional chances for thunderstorms. Temperatures should be
near or slightly below climatological averages through the period
with highs mainly in the 80s to near 90 degrees and lows in the
60s. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected Friday and
Saturday in the wake of a cold front. Warmer highs in the lower
90s may occur by Sunday and Monday as southwest mid level flow
returns along with surface troughing and south winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Other than a few high clouds at times VFR conditions through the
time period. A weak frontal boundary may produce some isolated
storms around HYS from 3Z-7Z but convection at this point is hard
to pinpoint where exactly development will be.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  68  91  68 /  10  30  20  50
GCK  89  67  90  65 /  10  20  30  50
EHA  86  65  90  64 /  10  30  20  30
LBL  89  68  93  67 /  20  30  20  40
HYS  91  68  89  68 /  20  30  20  50
P28  88  71  93  72 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Tatro



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