Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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141
FXUS63 KDDC 260805
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
305 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Winds will become southeast and increase into the 10 to 15 mph
range by late day as a trough of low pressure develops along the
lee of the Rockies today. Based on the mixing depth forecast by
the NAM and GFS along with the 00z Wednesday temperatures in the
850mb to 750mb level will stay close to the latest MAV and MET
guidance for highs.

Tonight the skies will be clear, at least early, and winds will
fall back to less than 10 mph after sunset. With dewpoints
forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s and the clear skies and
light winds expected the lows across western Kansas should range
from 65 to near 70.

There will be a chance for late day and evening convection over
eastern Colorado as an upper level disturbance exits the Central
Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains. These
storms are expected to weaken after sunset as the move into
western Kansas.

Across south central Kansas late today there will be improving
moisture and lift under a 700mb to 500mb deformation zone that
will be approaching Barber county by late day. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible near and southeast of the
deformation zone which based on the NAM and GFS will stay east and
south of Barber county late this afternoon and early tonight.
Given the NAM and GFS agreement in where the deformation zone will
be late day will continue to favor keeping the precipitation
chances just east and south of Medicine lodge.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

A northwesterly flow will establish itself across the central
Plains mid week as an upper level ridge axis begins to amplify
over the western United States. A series of upper level
disturbances embedded in this northwesterly flow is forecast by
all the models to move across western Kansas from mid week through
the weekend period. With each of these upper level systems there
will be at least a slight chance for thunderstorms.

The first of the more significant upper waves is forecast by the
GFS and ECMWF to cross the central plains on Wednesday night as a
warm front lifts northeast across western Kansas. moist upslope
flow along with some weak low level forcing and warm air advection
will be occurring ahead of of this upper level disturbance with
700mb to 500mb lapse rates forecast to range from 7C/KM to 8 C/KM.
Based on this will keep a mention of convection late day and early
Wednesday night as this upper level disturbance passes, especially
in west central and north central Kansas.

The next decent chance of convection will the be Thursday night
as the next upper level wave crosses the Central Plains. Later
shifts may wish to monitor this and increase chances as needed
given that conditions suggesting the potential of a MCS crossing
western Kansas Thursday night.

The chance for convection will then continue each day from Friday
through the weekend period as more upper level disturbances rotate
around the upper level ridge axis and cross into the Central
Plains.

Based on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends from mid week
through the weekend period will continue to favor keeping
temperatures mainly in the 90 to 95 degree range. A few days may
end up a little warmer or cooler depending on cloud cover and
convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Easterly winds at less than 10 knots will gradually shift to the
southeast early Tuesday morning as a trough of low pressure begins
to develop along the lee of the Rockies. After 21z Tuesday the
southeast winds will range from 10 to near 15 knots.

The latest models soundings do indicate a shallow layer of
moisture near the surface, mainly between 12z and 15z Tuesday. As
a result will continue to follow the previous forecast with some
areas of fog developing towards daybreak, especially near and
northwest of a Dodge City to Hays line. Some patchy IFR stratus
may also develop. After this fog dissipates then VFR conditions
can be expected through the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  68  92  68 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  91  68  92  67 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  93  68  94  67 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  93  68  93  67 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  91  69  91  68 /   0  20  20  40
P28  90  71  93  71 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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