Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030858
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...LONG TERM UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP WARM FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNALS THROUGH A DEEP DENRITIC ZONE WITH IMPRESSIVE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER, GREATER UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN HOW LONG THE SNOW MAY LAST, WHICH IS POSED BY THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODEL FIELDS (EC/GFS AND NAM RUNS). AT THIS TIME THE EC
APPEARS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, BY LOSING A SATURATED FIELD IN THE MID
LEVELS THE QUICKEST ON WEDNESDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS QPF WAS USED
WITH THE NAMS`S SNOW RATIO OUTPUT TO GENERATE THE FIRST GUESS FOR
SNOW, WHICH RANGES FROM AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF THROUGH THE HIGHWAY
50 AND 96 CORRIDORS, TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA LINE. THESE MAY BE QUITE CONSERVATIVE FIRST GUESSES AS
WELL, BEACAUSE IF THE NAM VERIFIES, AND OTHER MODELS CONVERGE
TOWARD IT, THE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE EASILY BE TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENTS (4 OT 5 INCHES OF SNOW).

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE MARCH
INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING TAKING A HOLD OF THE ENTIRE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS RETURN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE 60S AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WHICH MAY
NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH IF SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN FASTER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  27  14 /  10  50  40  10
GCK  42  13  25  13 /  10  50  30  10
EHA  45  13  25  15 /  10  50  40  10
LBL  49  16  26  14 /  10  70  60  10
HYS  41  14  27  13 /  10  20  20   0
P28  48  17  29  15 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD


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