Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 052020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014
...Update to long term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.
Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
For Thursday evening, lee-side troughing will continue ahead of
the next fropa. Southerly winds are expected for the overnight
hours, which will keep minimums up and in the 30sF. The warmest is
expected across far southwest Kansas near Elkhart where the
strongest downslope component to the wind vector is expected.
The forecast becomes a bit more interesting in the wake of the
fropa Friday night and into Saturday. A broad upper level trof
will move across the region through the evening. Cold air
advection will begin by late evening. Top down/warm layer aloft
suggest that the event will start out as rain and then transition
to all snow by Saturday morning. ECMWF/GEM/GEFS are coming in lower
with snowfall amounts than previous runs. Probably attributed to
the broad/progressive nature of the trof and the lack of richer
boundary layer moisture. Still, cannot rule out a few inches or
perhaps a borderline advisory event. Highs will be in the 50s and
lows mainly in the 20s.
Saturday and beyond:
The main synoptic wave will move east with a quasi-zonal flow
becoming established by Monday. The net result is moderating
temperatures and weak lee troughing. As nice warm up is possible
next Monday in the warm sector, followed by cooling with another
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
For a couple of hours, there will be light snow, cigs down around
bkn010, and vsbys down to as low as 2sm in -sn. There is a thin
25-mile wide band of light to moderate snow following an upper
level axis of a low pressure trough moving east across Kansas.
Then there will be a 4 to 6 hour period of 080-100 foot cigs,
before winds will drop off and skies will begin to clear for the
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 53 34 52 / 0 0 0 30
GCK 23 63 34 51 / 0 0 0 40
EHA 28 66 41 56 / 0 0 0 40
LBL 23 63 38 56 / 0 0 0 30
HYS 19 53 31 49 / 0 0 0 30
P28 14 52 30 56 / 10 0 0 20