Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CANADA, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND IT`S
PERIPHERY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BE
WIDESPREAD WITH SOME BREAKS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND LIFT
INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM IN
THE EVENING SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY
LOOK TO REACH TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH NEAR 70,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY, WITH SOME MID 80S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AND
ALL OF THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD THIS SPRING WILL DISCOURAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING INTO THE 90S DUE TO ENHANCED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH
THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ONLY ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND SOME OF THESE COULD VENTURE INTO
FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH A SHARPER LEE TROUGH AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALL THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO THAT SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH,
TORNADIC ACTIVITY AND GIANT HAIL ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK
AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK, THEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S. GIVEN THE LEE TROUGHING AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, LOWS WILL BE WARM
IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  52  70  51 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  79  51  69  52 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  78  51  70  55 /  30  40  10  10
LBL  79  53  71  53 /  30  40  10  10
HYS  79  51  69  49 /  30  30  10  10
P28  81  56  71  52 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-
078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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