Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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042
FXUS63 KDDC 261747
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1247 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Today is another tricky temperature forecast. Mesoscale models (ARW,
NAM, NMMB) all suggest that stratus will stick around for most of the
day. It appears that the warm sector/warm front will remain south into
Okla and will not make it into Kan. Therefore, have considerably reduced
highs for today than previously forecast. NW zones might barely make
it out of the 40s. In the SE, lower 60s could be possible, although
these locations might not make it out of the 50s. This is particularly
true if the warm front does not move any north. Both ARW and NMMB break
out precipitation north of the 500-hPa low axis today across the central,
northern, and eastern zones. Have adjusted the highest pops as a result.
Think that the most severe thunderstorms will remain into Oklahoma.
Elevated hailers could be possible across the far SE zones. Elevated
LHP suggests hail might make it up to 1", but even MUCAPE will be limited.
Thinking up to 1" hail and 50-60 mph outflows are the main threats.
There also could be a cold core associated storm (low topped supercell)
that tracks along the warm front that could produce a tornado. This
is possible across NW Okla and not for the forecast district.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The precipitation will exit the area early Monday as the 500-hPa low
quickly moves away from the forecast district. Shortwave ridging will
build in behind with a dry forecast following. Highs on Monday should
rebound back into the 60s with a weak WAA pattern eventually developing.
Attention then turns to the late Tuesday and into Wednesday period.
The EC still shows a large low across the Desert SW with considerable
moisture advection into the Great Plains. The warm sector will most
likely be E/SE of the forecast area, however, a baroclinic zone and
isentropic lift will set the stage for a heavy rain event late Tuesday
and into Wednesday morning. A few inches could be possible with locally
higher amounts depending on the track of the low. Severe weather will
be on the unlikely side as SW Kansas will remain on the cold side of
the synoptic system. The 00Z EC run was a little lighter on precip
amounts than compared to the 12Z run, however, the overall consistency
of this model to show widespread rain across the FA is still important.
Beyond that, another chance for rain might enter the picture late in
the period as another wave with decent low level moisture impacts the
forecast district. Temps look to be fairly seasonal, maybe a touch
below in days of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Widespread IFR ceilings will persist today at all TAF locations
with visibilities in DDC and GCK gradually improving from around 1
mile to near 3 miles by 20Z. Visibilities in HYS will remain aoa
6 miles. Ceilings of 005 to 010 are likely to persist tonight, but
VFR conditions will return as the stratus dissipates by late
morning Monday. Patchy fog with visibilities blo 1 mile may
develop around sunrise Monday. Scattered showers with possibly a
few thunderstorms can be expected from 21Z through 02Z.

An upper level cyclone that was in eastern Colorado late this
morning will move to near the Kansas/Missouri border by sunrise
Monday. A surface low will move from the northern Texas Panhandle
into west central Oklahoma by sunset and into eastern Oklahoma by
12Z Monday. A warm front will develop across northern Oklahoma
this afternoon but will remain well south of the Kansas border.

Scattered showers can be expected near the upper level low as it
moves across Kansas late this afternoon. There will be enough
instability north of the warm front to support scattered
thunderstorms late this afternoon in south central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  39  67  42 /  20  20   0   0
GCK  46  37  68  43 /  20  10   0   0
EHA  54  36  67  42 /  20  10   0  10
LBL  57  38  68  44 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  49  40  63  42 /  40  40   0   0
P28  57  45  67  43 /  60  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Ruthi



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