Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301708
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 924 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure
shifting slowly eastward across the Northern and Central Rockies
while a plume of tropical moisture continues to lift northward
across the high plains of western Kansas. Near the surface, a weak
area of low pressure remains locked in across southeast Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Areas of early morning fog will be possible early this morning
but based on how shallow the moisture is near the surface and the
HRRR and NAM hinting at a light westerly wind around 12z do not
think dense fog will be an issue for most of western Kansas.

Scattered Thunderstorms , some capable of producing heavy
rainfall, will once again be possible across western Kansas today
as subtle upper level disturbances embedded in the tropical flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Given the environment am unable
to pinpoint exactly where or when these storms will be late today
through tonight. However based on water vapor loop and general
consensuses between the NAM, RAP, and GFS will be favoring an area
of enhanced convection east of Dodge City early today and then
locations a little further west late today and early tonight.

As for temperatures today will favor the cooler guidance and may
even undercut this given the clouds, precipitation, and what the
highs were yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

On Wednesday an upper level trough will move from northwest
Kansas into central Kansas as a 700mb to 500mb deformation zone
crosses western Kansas. Based on these features it appears that
this will be when the better opportunity for widespread
precipitation will occur. Once again heavy rainfall will be the
main hazard from these storms given high precipitable water, weak
upper level winds, and 0-6km shear.

A cold front will then back door its way into western Kansas
Wednesday night which will allow some cooler and drier air in the
lower levels to return to portions of north central Kansas.
Moisture and lift will continue along and ahead of this boundary
so will keep a mention of showers and thunderstorms going here
while east of the cold front will bring an end to the
precipitation.

An upper level ridge axis will move east across the central and
northern Plains late week as an upper level low moves out of the
eastern Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest. A trough of low
pressure at the surface will develop across eastern Colorado late
week and into the weekend period as 850mb temperatures begin to
warm. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend
period along this surface boundary in southeast Colorado. Some of
these storms will move into portions of western Kansas late
Saturday into Saturday night as an upper level trough crosses the
Central Plains. Temperatures are expected to climb back to more
seasonal levels with highs around 90 degrees being possible on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
to drift northeast across western and central Kansas through this
evening. Look for periodic MVFR conditions in the vicinity of KDDC
and KHYS through late this afternoon as the stratus deck slowly
lifts. Widespread VFR conditions are likely by this evening,
although stratus may redevelop late this evening returning the
potential for MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys overnight. Winds will remain
light and variable through early Wednesday as high pressure
dominates across the Northern and Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  65  80  62 /  60  60  50  40
GCK  77  63  80  61 /  60  60  40  30
EHA  78  62  80  60 /  60  70  40  40
LBL  79  65  80  62 /  60  70  50  40
HYS  79  63  77  60 /  60  60  50  20
P28  84  68  83  65 /  50  60  60  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson



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