Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190810
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Hot, dry, and windy conditions can be expected today across
western Kansas. A dry line will will cross western Kansas today
and as this surface boundary passes and the wind shift to the
southwest and the dew points will quickly fall from the 60s back
into the 30s. Just how far east this dry line will make it by late
day is still somewhat unclear but it does appears that this
boundary will be located from near Russell to Coldwater. Given the
increase in winds into the 25 to 30 mph range by the early
afternoon, highs in the mid to upper 90s, and dew points falling
back into the 30s behind the dry line the Red Flag Warning that
was issued yesterday still looks good. Will also be adding one
more tier of counties further east to this warning given the
latest models which suggests lower dew points and slightly further
east location of the dry line.

Highs today will be mainly in the mid 90s for western Kansas with
upper 90s likely just west of where the dry line will be late
day. Could even see a few locations climbing to around 100 in the
Hays, Larned, Coldwater, and Ashland areas.

Early this evening the gusty southwest winds will fall back into
the 10 to 20 mph range as a surface cold front moves into
northwest Kansas. After midnight this cold front will cross
western Kansas and as this frontal boundary passes the southerly
winds will shift to the northwest and briefly increase back into
the 15 to 25 mph range. Some cooler air will begin to filter into
western Kansas overnight but not much and the gusty winds should
also aid in keeping temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s for
most locations. The exception will be west central Kansas where
lows tonight may dip to around 50.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

On Wednesday a cold front will become nearly stationary across
the panhandle of Texas and northern Oklahoma as a surface ridge
axis crosses western and central Kansas. Winds speeds are expected
to average 10 mph or less near this ridge axis and the northerly
winds will gradually veer to the southeast by late day. Highs on
Wednesday based on the 900mb to 850mb temperature trends are
expected to be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to what is
expected later today (Tuesday afternoon).

For the remainder of the work week and into the weekend period an
upper level trough/low will move slowly east southeast across the
western United States as several upper waves eject out of the
based of this upper trough and move across the Western High
Plains. As the first of these upper waves move out into the
Western Plains Friday night there will be a chance for
thunderstorms...mainly near a deepening surface lee trough that
will be located near or just west of the Kansas/Colorado border.
Given the mean cloud layer winds most of these storms that do
develop should stay west/northwest of Garden City and Liberal but
a slight chance for a few weakening storms can not be completely
out of the question near these locations overnight Friday night.

The better chance for convection across all of western Kansas
will be Saturday night and Sunday as the next upper wave moves out
of the southern Rockies and approaches western Kansas. Convection
over the weekend will again develop near a surface boundary late
Saturday which is forecast to extend from southeast Colorado to
north central Kansas and then spread east through early Sunday.

Temperatures late week are expected to rebound back into the 90s
and gusty south southeast winds can be expected Thursday and
Friday as surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies.
This may result in elevated fire weather conditions late week.
These gusty southeasterly winds will also draw more humid air back
in the lower levels to southwest Kansas. Given this at this time
the better chances for elevated fire weather conditions for
portions of western Kansas will be on Thursday. Friday will be
windy and warm but increasing dew points may limit how low the
afternoon relative humidity values will fall.

As an upper level system crosses the West Central High Plains on
late Sunday and a cold front will cross or move into western
Kansas which will enhance the chance again for thunderstorms.
Timing of this frontal passage late this weekend into early next
week currently is unclear but even if the frontal boundary is
slower that what is currently anticipated the clouds and
precipitation will still hold temperatures down late this weekend.
The weekend should start off with highs in the 85 to 90 degree
range but end up with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid
80s...depending on timing of the cold front, clouds, and
precipitation changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours.
Southeasterly winds at around 10 knots overnight will increase to
around 20 knots by late morning. These gusty winds will continue
to increase into the 20 to 25 knot range as they veer more to the
southwest early this afternoon as a dry line crosses western
Kansas. These southwesterly winds will decrease after sunset as
the boundary layer winds decouple. 900mb to 850 mph wind speeds
overnight and then again early Tuesday night suggests inserting a
wind shear group during both periods. The stronger low level winds
after sunset tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Critical fire weather conditions are likely across western Kansas
today. Any outdoor burning should be avoided, especially along
and west of highway 183. Gusty south to southwest winds at 25 to
30 mph can be expected by the late morning and then continue
through the remainder of the day. This combined with relative
humidity values fall back into the 10 to 15 percent range will
result in a favorable environment for any fire that does ignite
today to exhibit extreme fire behavior and be difficult to
control. A red flag warning is in effect this afternoon for
locations along and west of a Hays to near Coldwater line.
Although a red flag warning is not in effect further east burning
here also is strongly discouraged.

A cold front will cross western Kansas tonight and although
Wednesday afternoon will have relative humidity values in the 20
to 30 percent range the winds are expected to be only at 10 to 15
mph. By Thursday however elevated fire danger levels will be
possible once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  96  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  93  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  96  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  97  60  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  98  68  89  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-
074>080-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert



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