Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 132332
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
632 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TONIGHT:

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNDOWN, BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 5-15 MPH
RANGE THE OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT CIRRIFORM CLOUD COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS MORNING, OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR TO
LOW 50S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TOMORROW:

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING. WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER TO AROUND
80F ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TOMORROW
AND GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHILE A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF
THE US AND CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAYTIME ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY
FARTHER WEST. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HAVE A STABLE LAYER TO CONTEND WITH BEFORE STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. MODEL GFS/ECMWF MODEL QPF FIELDS KEEP THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE THE NAM
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN
THE FORECAST.

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS
OVERDONE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TRIMMED BACK CLOSER TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
CURRENT ECMWF IS SHOWING.

TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNAL OF ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND PLOWING THROUGH THE
WEST COAST RIDGE BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE GFS HAS BEEN MAINTAINING AN
OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM
HAD THE SYSTEM CLOSING OFF OVER COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY
NEXT SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH AND/OR TIMING OF THE WAVE. THE EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION PUTS GIVES FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BUT OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-25KT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE JUST SOUTH OF HAYS WITH KHYS STAYING SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  84  61  72 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  49  84  60  68 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  53  85  58  69 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  53  85  61  74 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  47  80  57  70 /   0   0  20  20
P28  51  84  67  80 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE



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