Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140529
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1129 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Northwest flow prevailed in the upper troposphere, with the next
shortwave trough embedded in the flow, diving southeast across
Montana. This system will reach the Central Plains tonight, with
an axis of snow developing ahead of it across central Nebraska and
northern Kansas. We will only carry slight chance POPs in Ellis
County only, as western Kansas will only be glanced by this
system. All of the light snow should remain across the eastern
half of Kansas.

This disturbance will clear Kansas quickly Sunday morning, with
some decent downslope warming in its wake. Abundant sunshine and
850mb temperatures warming to a couple degrees above zero (degC)
should yield surface temperatures well into the 40s to near 50
(degF). Surface winds will be out of the northwest or west
northwest at around 8-12 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

The next major arctic cold front will be due in late Sunday Night.
Sharply colder air resides north of this front, with intense cold
advection all day Monday. In fact, we will likely see temperatures
continue to fall through the daytime hours on a 15-25 mph north-
northeast wind. There will be enough deformation of the 700mb flow
field along the sharp 700mb front to sponsor some light
accumulating snow, generally along and north of I-70. The best
timing for this would be very early Monday morning from roughly 3
AM to 9 AM. Nearly all the model fields suggest this frontogenetic
snow region will dissolve as it moves deeper into southwest
Kansas, thus POPs Monday during the daytime will generally be
20-30 percent. If future runs show a stronger 700mb frontogenetic
zone farther south into southwest KS, then POPs will need to be
raised. Tuesday Morning looks to be particularly cold, especially
if we can clear out as a 1048mb surface high center knifes
through Nebraska into northern Kansas. The arctic high will pull
away later in the day Tuesday, but the return flow to south winds
will still be chilly through Wednesday. A weak upper level wave
will slide beneath a longwave ridge into the Four Corner region
Wednesday Night, but this feature will most likely not have any
impact on western Kansas weather as it will probably continue to
slide southeast into Southwest TX as the latest ECMWF suggests.

Of greater interest at the end of this forecast period is the
signal of a major mid latitude cyclone entering the Rockies. Since
this potential storm is at +7 days, there is substantial
uncertainty in any strength and track forecast at this point. The
only confidence we have is that something fairly substantial will
probably be coming out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR skies and visibilities will prevail through this period. Southerly
winds at the beginning of the period will become northwesterly at
10-15 knots during the morning hours before diminishing and becoming
southwesterly during the later afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  17  50  22  24 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  18  52  22  25 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  20  52  24  28 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  17  51  23  27 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  16  45  19  20 /  20   0  40  20
P28  20  48  25  28 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Gerard



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