Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250510
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1210 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Near term forecast issues center around convective/severe local storms this
late afternoon and evening. All convective allowing models have been consistent
throughout the day forecasting mid to late afternoon discreet storm development
along the incoming Pacific cold front over the southeast sections of
the DDC CWA. The consensus of environmental storm parameters suggest
large hail(greater than golfball, possible as high as a few
baseballs) and isolated tornadoes are possible within these storm
paths. Beyond the storm chances tonight, light north surface winds
and clearing sky develops after midnight before flipping back out
of the southeast and become slightly more breezy for Monday
morning. Any fog or stratus that develops along the moisture
gradient around midnight and after will be quickly eroded away by
the invading dry air over most of the area. South central Kansas
will still be in a zone of southerly surface winds and moisture
convergence, hence some fog or stratus could develop and linger
there (St John/Pratt/Greensburg/Coldwater/Med Lodge) a little
longer into the 10-13Z timeframe. By Monday afternoon the surface
flow remains weakly breezy with generous surface moisture
transport (NAM showing dew points in the 60s as far east as Dodge
and Garden by the mid evening, which will again increase the odds
of fog development as radiational cooling develops along he
upslope convergence enhanced area overnight into Wednesday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Cooler temperatures are forecast in the days 4-7 timeframe. Lows are still forecast
in the 40s, however highs are cooler in the mid 60s, which at this point in the last
week of April is actually climatologically cool. The cooler pattern is in association
with the next synoptic scale feature hading into the late part of the week and weekend
which may bring in additional rounds of severe weather/convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

A period of fairly quiet weather conditions is expected through this
TAF period. Northeast winds will diminish to less than 12 knots
early in the period. Winds will gradually switch to the east and
southeast by mid to late afternoon. VFR skies/vsbys should prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  78  53  80 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  45  77  50  77 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  45  79  48  74 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  47  81  50  79 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  48  76  53  78 /   0  10  20  20
P28  58  81  57  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard



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