Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 152306
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

The forecast for tonight and tomorrow is fairly basic with little in
the way to discuss as far as impactful sensible weather is
concerned. Surface high late this afternoon was centered across
western Kansas, and winds dropped off substantially to less than 8
mph over much of our region. The light winds will continue through
the night, and this will allow temperatures to drop quite a bit
after sunset, to around 40 degrees by 04z (10 PM CDT). The surface
high will move southeast as a leeside trough develops across eastern
Colorado tomorrow morning. Winds will quickly shift around to the
south and increase, especially by 15z. Winds will continue to ramp
up after that, topping out around 20 mph sustained, particularly
along the U283 corridor from Dodge to Wakeeney to Hays where the
MSLP gradient will be strongest. Wind direction will be from the
south-southeast, except far southwest and west central KS, and this
wind direction farther east will prevent deep mixing, and thus
substantial surface warming. Highs will be about 5 to 8 degrees
warmer for most areas, except only a few degrees warmer from Hays to
Medicine Lodge where mixing will be shallowest. Deeper mixing around
Elkhart will help push surface temps to around 72 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A major Pacific jet rolling across the Central Plains Friday will
lead to deep surface low development across west central KS, with
995mb low near Scott City 00z Saturday. This is a fairly good
position for anomalously warm temperatures across much of southwest
Kansas. Confidence continues to increase in afternoon temperatures
topping out in the 80-82F territory for much of the area, mainly
south of the Arkansas River. Some 84 or even 85F temperatures could
occur in the Red Hills of Clark-Comanche County. This very warm nose
across southwestern KS will not last long, as an intense cold front
(strength of pressure rises/winds, not necessarily temps) will push
rapidly south Friday Night. The latest official forecast will have
an abrupt increase in winds from the north around 06z Saturday to
25-30 mph. There will probably be a few hours of 30-35 mph winds
sustained, with gusts close to 50 mph. Quite a change in the weather
is forecast Saturday, as strong northwest winds continue through the
day, especially morning and midday. Winds will slowly decrease by
afternoon, and highs should only reach the lower 50s for most. Given
the fast movement and northern track of the storm center,
precipitation chances will be nil, except along I-70 where only a 15-
20 POP is forecast Friday Night.

Temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period through
Wednesday will be near or slightly above average, but after Tuesday,
confidence goes down tremendously as the deterministic global
spectral models all diverge.. especially ECMWF vs. GFS. There is no
strong signal of appreciable precipitation on the horizon, at least
through Day 7 (22 November).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 504 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Light winds will become southeast at around 10 knots by 09z
Thursday as a trough of low pressure at the surface develops over
eastern Colorado. These winds will then increase Thursday morning
and by 18z Thursday the prevailing south winds are expect to be
at around 20 knots as stronger winds in the boundary layer mixes
down to the surface, and the surface trough over eastern Colorado
deepens during the day. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions
tonight and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  63  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  64  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  72  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  67  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  33  61  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
P28  33  60  48  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert


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