Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121920
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave moving eastward
out of southern California across the Four Corners Region tonight
and eventually into the Western High Plains early Sunday morning
bringing the possibility for precip from the Colorado Rockies
east-northeastward into the plains of Nebraska and portions of
northern Kansas. However, extremely dry air in the lower levels
associated with a surface low anchored across extreme southwest
Kansas will limit precip chances across southwest Kansas tonight.
Precip chances will begin to increase throughout the day Sunday as
the upper level shortwave pushes further east into the Central
Plains. As it moves through, an attendant cold front will surge
southward across western Kansas. Meanwhile, low/mid level moisture
will lift northward across eastern Oklahoma into southeastern
Kansas ahead of an advancing surface low, then wrap around the low
into north central and northwest Kansas with H85 dewpoints near
10C. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly marginal,
increased post-frontal H7 frontogenesis banding will provide
enough lift to support precip development across central and
portions of southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon. Vertical
temperature profiles in NAM/GFS model soundings indicate liquid
for any precip through late Sunday afternoon with rainfall amounts
generally less than one quarter inch.

Temperatures will be well above normal tonight as the fairly warm
air mass from this morning remains in place across central and
southwest Kansas with H85 temperatures around 20C. Look for lows
down into the 50s(F) across much of central and southwest Kansas
by early Sunday morning. A strong cold front will then push
southward across western Kansas early Sunday morning allowing much
colder air to surge down into the area. As a result, highs will
not climb above the 50s(F) in central and far southwest Kansas
with temperatures falling throughout the afternoon. Expect highs
well up into the 60s(F) across south central Kansas where the
front is not expected to move through until early to mid afternoon.
A few lower 70s(F) cannot be ruled out in south central Kansas
near the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

On Sunday night the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue
to saturate as cold air advection improves. Mean 925mb t0 850mb
winds are forecast to average from 30 to 35kts and 850mb winds
will approach 45kts at least through the first half of the night.
Based on this cold advection advertised the model soundings do
support that the precipitation will change over from rain to snow
change during the overnight hours. Also based on timing of the mid
level baroclinic zone and upper level trough crossing the Central
High Plains it also appears that a period of steadier light snow
will be possible between midnight and 6 am. The steadier snow will
then begin to taper off from northwest to southeast towards
daybreak Monday. At this time given the warm surface temperatures
and the rainfall expected early in the event the snow
accumulations are still expected to average one inch or less.
Locally higher amounts possible closer to the Colorado border
where the precipitation is expected to change over sooner.

Monday will be unseasonably cool based on cloud cover and 925mb to
850mb temperatures. Latest MAV/MET also was trending towards cooler
temperatures on Monday as well. Given the potential for some sun
late day will stay close to the latest, cooler, guidance with highs
on Monday mainly be in the mid 40s.

Subsidence will develop Monday night as the upper level trough exits
western Kansas and an upper level ridge axis moves east towards the
Rockies. The GFS and ECMWF both agree that 850mb temperatures will
warm back into the +12C to around +15C range by Tuesday afternoon.
Based on this warm up along with limited cloud cover Tuesday
afternoon will continue to favor highs returning to the 60s across
all of western Kansas.

On Wednesday the 850mb temperatures will continue warm ahead of a
cold front which will move out of Nebraska and into Kansas during
the day. At this time it appears that this cold front will move
across western Kansas during the mid to late afternoon. Ahead of
this cold front afternoon highs could easily climb into the lower
70s while low to mid 60s will be more likely behind this frontal
boundary. Confidence on timing of this frontal passage is low so
will stay close to the previous forecast across the southwest and
south central Kansas while near the interstate 70 corridor lower
afternoon temperatures slightly to account for the frontal passage.

As the cold front crosses Kansas an upper level trough will exit the
Rockies and move out into the Central and Northern Plains. It
currently appears that the better upper level dynamics and
instability appears to be across northern Kansas so will keep the
higher chances for precipitation going there. After a brief cool
down on Thursday behind this front another warming trend is expected
to return.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. As for winds, a lee side trough of low pressure across
extreme western Kansas will push slowly eastward across the area
into central Kansas through tonight resulting in light and variable
winds. A cold front will then push southward across western Kansas
early Sunday morning turning winds northerly 20 to 30kt with gusts
up to 35kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  58  30  49 /  10  50  50  10
GCK  48  53  28  49 /  10  60  50  10
EHA  48  53  29  48 /  10  60  70  40
LBL  50  57  29  49 /  10  60  50  40
HYS  50  53  30  49 /  30  40  40  10
P28  58  69  33  51 /  20  60  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson






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