Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220530
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Any remnant precip chances across central Kansas early this morning
will quickly dissipate by late morning as an upper level shorwave kicks
east out of the Central Plains while drier air in the lower levels filters
southward into western Kansas. Meanwhile, upper level ridging moving
ashore off the Pacific will push eastward across the Intermountain West
later today setting up a drier pattern that will finish out the weekend.
Although surface high pressure dipping southward across the high plains
of western Kansas will reinforce a cooler air mass across the region
today, clearing skies should allow temperatures to climb a bit from
yesterday with highs well up into the 50s(F) to near 60F this afternoon.
Clearing skies and light and variable winds will allow temperatures
to drop Saturday night with lows easily falling into the 30s(F). Near
freezing temperatures may be possible further west near the Colorado
border, especially in low lying areas. Areas of frost will certainly
be a concern considering the onset of the growing season.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Near freezing temperatures are possible Sunday morning with
clear skies and light winds. A frost advisory will likely be
needed for Dodge City westward to the Colorado line. Several
upper level disturbances will pass across the central plains
next week but low level moisture will be limited this far
west. There are small chances for showers and thunderstorms
with each system. Severe storm chances look rather limited
although it cant be ruled out, especially over south central
Kansas. Highs will warm to near 70 degrees Sunday and then
into the lower 80s by Monday before gradually falling into the
high 60s by Thursday. The best chance of rain is Wednesday
night as a stronger system passes. However, with all the day to
day changes in the various model solutions, confidence is very
low in a widespread precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

MVFR cigs are likely in the vicinity of KGCK and KLBL overnight as
prevailing low level stratus slowly lifts and scatters out through
daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites
through early Saturday evening. Light and variable winds will persist
across western Kansas through Saturday afternoon as surface high
pressure sinks southward across the Western High Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  58  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  36  58  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  57  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  37  58  33  71 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  39  58  36  70 /  30   0   0   0
P28  41  58  37  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson



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