Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 102300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Initial thunderstorm complex across SW KS currently will continue
eastward and will regenerate to some extent this afternoon,
particularly along its southern periphery (likely near or south of
the Oklahoma border). Severe threat from these storms has been
marginal, with wind gusts to near 60 mph, some hail, and locally
very heavy rainfall. Satellite imagery shows sky clearing rapidly
behind this initial convection, with full sun across western
counties and eastern Colorado. As such, still expect 80s area wide
this afternoon, with the atmosphere recovering and CAPE
rebuilding. In other words, thinking is this initial activity will
not deter the expected thunderstorm event this evening. Speaking
of which, still expecting a significant forward-propagating MCS
across at least portions of SW KS this evening and tonight. 12z
NAM is very aggressive with this scenario, and assuming the
boundary layer will recover this afternoon, it appears reasonable.
Thunderstorms will redevelop along the CO/KS border late this
afternoon, then propagate SE. Shear/CAPE combination will support
supercells initially, especially across WFO Goodland`s CWA, and
some of this large hail potential will likely impact the NW zones
early this evening. During the 7-10 pm timeframe, thunderstorms
are expected to grow upscale into the MCS, with NAM/GFS and other
models seeming to want to favor the SW zones (west and south of
Dodge City) for the highest impact. Bowing line segments will
deliver strong to damaging winds, and continued to mention this
damaging wind potential in the grids for all zones through late
tonight. In addition, heavy rainfall will accompany this MCS.
Scott City measured rainfall rates of 3-4"/hour earlier, and high
PW will support widespread rainfall from the expected organized
complex. Given Goodland and Wichita are issuing a flash flood
watch, will go ahead and connect the dots to include SW KS. Storm
movement should accelerate as the MCS matures, limiting the
flooding threat to at least some extent.

Cold front/convective outflow combination will race through SW KS
this evening with winds becoming strong and gusty NE. High
confidence of post-frontal stratus/fog/mist developing across all
zones through Friday morning, and included areas of fog in the
grids. Feel NE winds will remain elevated enough to deter dense
fog formation, but with a saturated soil and boundary layer, it
won`t take much to reduce visibility. Expected MCS to exit into
Oklahoma during the 4-7 am timeframe.

Friday...Cooler and more stable, and only mentioned isolated rain
showers in the morning. Stratus and fog will hold for at least the
first half of the day, but may not break all day across the SW
zones. Max temperature grids in the lower 80s are dependent on
some afternoon sunshine, but kept mid to upper 70s across the
SW zones.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Thunderstorm chances continue throughout the long term as weak
shortwaves move through the area. Timing of these disturbances
will be a challenge. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern
although given the aforementioned upper level pattern with upper
level jet persisting. Severe weather also can`t be ruled out with
large hail and damaging winds. Well below normal temperatures are
in store during the long term, with highs only reaching the low to
mid 80s through early next week then mid to upper 80s as we head
into the beginning of next week. Lows are expected to range from
around 60 degrees across west central Kansas to upper 60s across
south central Kansas each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Numerous thunderstorms will continue to impact aviation through
this evening into the overnight hours. VCTS/CB will prevail, with
occasional thunderstorms at all terminals. A large complex of
thunderstorms is expected to develop along the CO/KS border by
around 00z, propogating eastward into SW KS through 06z Fri.
Primary severe risk will be outflow wind gusts exceeding 50 kts.
Storms will be accompanied by IFR/LIFR in heavy rain. Kept TEMPO
grids from previous TAF package, and will continue to amend as
necessary. Cold front/convective outflow will sweep through the
airports this evening with winds become NEly and gusty. After
06z Fri, thunderstorm complex will begin to progress into
Oklahoma, ending near the Oklahoma border around 09z. High
confidence in post-frontal IFR/LIFR stratus/fog impacting all
airports Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  82  65  83 /  70  20  40  60
GCK  62  81  64  83 /  70  20  40  50
EHA  62  78  64  85 /  90  30  40  30
LBL  65  81  66  85 /  90  30  50  50
HYS  61  82  64  81 /  60  10  30  50
P28  68  85  67  82 /  70  20  40  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ043-061>063-
074>078-080-081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner



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