Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Models remain in good agreement with convection developing
between 18z and 21z along a surface boundary that will be located
near the Colorado border. These storms will quickly intensify as
they move southeast. Hail up to 2 inches, wind gusts of 60 to 70
mph along with very heavy rainfall will be possible from these
storms late today and early tonight. At this time it appears that
the area most favorable for severe thunderstorms late today will
be west of highway 283.

On Thursday an upper level trough will begin to cross the
Northern Plains and a surface cold front will drop south across
northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado. Ahead of this cold front
it will be another day with highs ranging from 95 to 100 based on
the 900mb to 850mb temperatures late day.

Late day convection will once again be possible near a surface
boundary that will be located in southwest Kansas and also with
the cold front that will be located in west central and north
central Kansas. The 12z NAM and GFS both indicating better 0-1KM
moisture convergence along these boundaries. Better 0-6km shear
and mid level instability will also be present so there will be
another chance for severe thunderstorms late Thursday and Thursday
night. Main hazards on Thursday will be large hail greater than 2
inches, strong damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

A surface cold front will drop south across western Kansas
Thursday night as an upper level trough crosses the Central and
Northern Plains. Convection associated with the cold front will
continue early but taper off from northwest to southeast after
midnight.

There could be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms early
Friday morning given the 800mb to 600mb moisture and location of
the mid level baroclinic zone that will cross southwest Kansas
between 09z and 15z Friday.

Cooler temperatures will return on Friday and then continue
through the weekend period. For Friday the 00z Saturday 850mb
temperatures will average around 10C cooler compared to 00z Friday
and given the expected cloud cover the current cooling trend
still looks on track with highs mainly in the 80 to 85 degree
range. The 850mb temperatures continue to cool over the weekend
across southwest Kansas as an area of high pressure at the surface
builds across the Central Plains. Highs this weekend in the 70s
still look reasonable with lows falling back into at least the
lower 50s. A few of the models even hinting at some upper 40s
begin possible late this weekend which if this does occur will
approach the record low temperatures for Sunday or possibly even
Monday morning.

Precipitation chances this weekend will depend on how far south
the cold front will move Friday into early Saturday. Up slope flow
north of this front and isentropic lift developing early this
weekend will create favorable conditions for precipitation north
of this frontal boundary. The question is how far north this
precipitation will occur but at this time this is unclear. At this
time will continue to trend towards the further north solution of
the ECMWF which would not only result in a better chance for
precipitation for western Kansas but also given the expected cloud
cover temperatures will likely be cooler also, especially Sunday
where the potential exists for highs only in the upper 60s for a
few locations in far western Kansas.

These unseasonably cool conditions are expected to continue
Monday but more seasonable temperatures will be returning towards
mid week as an upper level ridge axis approaches the central
plains and a surface trough of low pressure develops along the lee
of the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR is expected through the TAF pd. There will be some mid level clouds
through the overnight period, but no further flight cat reductions.
Next weather concern is convection for Thursday evening. Will not include
CB/TSRA groups for now as confidence is a bit low. But the two terminals
that stand the most likely at seeing evening convection is at KGCK
and KLBL. Otherwise, S winds tonight becoming SSW tomorrow. A late
evening front will sag southward and will cause winds to be more N/NE
towards end of TAF pd.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  97  64  82 /  60  10  40  30
GCK  67 101  63  81 /  40  20  40  30
EHA  66 100  62  81 /  60  10  40  30
LBL  66 100  65  82 /  60  10  40  20
HYS  70  96  64  80 /  40  20  40  30
P28  69  96  68  85 /  20   0  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden



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