Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300840
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
240 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

...Updated Fire Weather...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Wrapping up November with typical late November weather. Scattered
to broken mid-layer clouds will gradually thin out this morning,
as dry and subsident airmass takes control. Expecting a clear sky
areawide by late morning, continuing through tonight. NWly
pressure gradient is still quite tight, so for one more day
NW winds will pick up abruptly after sunrise. NW winds will
average 20-30 mph with a few higher gusts to near 35 mph, just a
bit less wind than yesterday. Much lighter winds expected today
across far SW Kansas (Morton and adjoining counties) where the
pressure gradient has already substantially weakened. Despite the
full sunshine by afternoon, temperatures will be restricted to
near normal in the face of the continued NW winds and cool
advection, in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Tonight...Clear calm and cold. Modest surface high pressure near
1020 mb will build into eastern Colorado/western Kansas by sunrise
Thursday, allowing radiational cooling to operate at near optimal
levels. As such, undercut guidance for low temperatures Thursday
morning by several degrees, with widespread teens anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Thursday...Dry and quiet, and quite pleasant for the first day of
December, under zonal flow aloft. Pressure gradients collapse
almost completely, offering light and variable winds less than
10 mph. Afternoon temperatures near normal, in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

Friday...Models have shown great consistency digging a new closed
low into southern Arizona by Friday evening. Increasing clouds as
SW flow returns to SW Kansas, with again temperatures changing
little and remaining near normal in the upper 40s Friday
afternoon. Diffluence aloft and warm conveyor belt processes will
yield a blossoming of rain/snow across West Texas Friday
afternoon. Still think this will stay south of the KS/OK border
through 6 pm, so continued to keep daytime Friday grids dry.

This weekend...Upper low in Sonora, Mexico Saturday morning, will
track into Chihuahua Saturday afternoon, the Texas Big Bend Sunday
morning, and central Texas Sunday evening. This storm track will
keep the bulk of the rain/snow south of SW KS. That said, as first
suggested by ECMWF, some warm conveyor belt light rain/snow is
expected to spread into the southern zones (roughly south of U.S.
Highway 50) Friday night and early Saturday. Confident this
precipitation will be light, with much more favorable diffluence
and moisture advection favoring much heavier precipitation across
Texas and Oklahoma. Also, thermal profiles are borderline with
rain vs snow, but nocturnal timing may encourage some minor slushy
accumulations on grassy/elevated surfaces. Impacts will be minimal
to nil, given weekend morning timing and light nature of precip.
Expecting QPF with this rain/snow to remain less than 0.10 inch
for most of the southern zones. Not what we need, but hey, it`s
something!

Sunday...Rain/snow move into eastern Kansas Sunday morning, with
dry weather returning to SW KS. Building heights and dry,
subsident NW flow will clear out the sky and allow temperatures to
moderate back into the 50s.

Monday...Continued dry and mild, with increasing southerly flow.
Afternoon temperatures should warm well into the 50s ahead of the
first of a series of cold fronts Monday evening.

Starting Tuesday...Confidence in any details really goes downhill.
Models are offering wildly different solutions, disagreeing with
each other, and often with their own prior runs. To this point,
the superblend pops for next Wednesday time frame are well into
the likely category, but not supported at all by 00z ECMWF.
However, this much is becoming quite clear: the first true arctic
airmass of the season (currently building near Alaska) will be
invading Kansas around Wednesday of next week. Residents will want
to start making preparations for their homes, autos and livestock
for much colder temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

VFR through Wednesday. Scattered to broken mid clouds will
gradually thin out through Wed AM, with SKC expected after
15z Wed. NW winds near 12 kts overnight will once again increase
sharply after 15z, increasing to 22-32 kts at all airports.
NW winds will diminish rapidly around sunset Wednesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Once again today, NW winds will increase abruptly after sunrise,
averaging 20-30 mph through the early afternoon hours. Some gusts
near 35 mph will occur. Airmass will be very dry, with dewpoints
only in the teens. Seasonably cool temperatures will keep min RH
values just above critical thresholds, in the 20-25% range. With
abundant dry grasses available as fuel, NW winds will support an
elevated risk of wildfire spread from about 9 AM through 3 pm.
Winds will subside very quickly around sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  18  49  23 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  17  47  19 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  20  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  18  49  22 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  46  19  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  23  52  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner



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