Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211403

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
903 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016


Issued at 900 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure
moving eastward across the Western High Plains while an upper
level trough of low pressure remains anchored across the Pacific
Northwest. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is developing
across southeast Colorado with an attendant dryline extending
southward into northeast New Mexico.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

High pressure anchored over the upper Midwest this morning created a
gradient across western Kansas and the dry air over the higher
terrain over Colorado. Within this pressure gradient, decent surface
moisture  flux was occurring, as dew points were increasing from the
50s; the short term models were bringing low to mid 60s dew points
into southwest Kansas by late morning. Low stratus will persist this
morning, and a band of elevated waa/isentropic lift induced
showers/thunderstorms may develop and move rapidly east into central
Kansas around 11-14 UTC. The various short term models were also at
odds on how far east to mix out the boundary layer by late
morning/early afternoon. The RAP/HRRR advanced the dry air much
farther east than the NAM/WRF suite of models. At the moment we are
following the NAM/WRF for today`s solution which also would result
in late day convection initiation being slightly farther west.

The location of the developing warm front/dryline zone over the far
west will determined where convection initiation will be possible.
Models like  the WRF-ARW/4km NAM and WRF-NMM have been consistent
developing a cluster of storms somewhere in a Tribune-Syracuse-
Garden City and driving them along the moisture/Storm relative
inflow axis southeast. All modes of severe weather are possible this
evening, as well as an isolated tornado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Severe weather potential exists again on Sunday with models
developing convective initiation late day early evening along a
northeast-southwest oriented zone which likely represents a further
eastward advanced dryline from previous days.

Temperatures will finally moderate closer to above normal highs
for late May through the week, reaching possible 90 degrees.
Dryline storms may be possible any day of the week before a cold
front moves through the area by late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Increasing surface moisture in upslope flow will enhance a
lowering of ceilings going into the overnight, hours. By around
12 UTC, a zone of waa/isent lift induced convection may develop
east of HYS, moving into central KS through the mid morning.
Additionally, surface based convection is likely to develop later
in the afternoon/early evening, from near tribune to Garden City,
and the eastward extent of propagation leaves some uncertainty.


DDC  72  63  81  65 /  20  50  30  40
GCK  80  62  84  62 /  50  60  30  30
EHA  86  58  85  59 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  84  62  84  64 /  30  40  30  20
HYS  65  61  80  64 /  20  30  30  50
P28  73  62  80  67 /  20  30  30  50


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.