Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Elevated showers were ongoing across northern KS early this morning,
associates with a weak mid level warm advection in the base of the
upper trough/nose of the westerly jet axis. Most of this activity
should remain to the north as we head toward 12 UTC, however will be
monitored for update to pops/wx in the next few hours.  Models are
slightly warmer this morning than MOS, and current trend would seem
to support the models low 60s for MinT`s a little better. Latest
NAM/WRF is a bit warmer in the west for this afternoon`s high,
indicating low 90s possible for Garden/Liberal/Elkhart areas.

Overnight we will see a return of more robust low level moisture,
850 mb dew points and surface values into the low-mid 60s once again
all the way west into eastern CO. The higher theta-e airmass should
help hold temperatures up a few more degrees as well, supportive of
the NAM/WRF`s upper 60s low temperatures by early Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

By Tuesday, the surface winds become more southwesterly downsloping
and moderate. Convective chances seem to increase as well.
Instability should be returning 3,000-4000 j/kg cape values. Pattern
suggests the potential convection late afternoon and evening may be
generally diurnally driven with little forcing/little propagation,
and focused along the best convergence axis in the far west.  Both
the GFS and ECMWF suggest a better chances for more widespread
convection by late Wednesday/Wednesday evening, with better
forcing from a possible weak a mid level shortwave and better
storm propagation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Aviation weather will remain fairly tranquil through early
Tuesday. High pressure will push off to the east with south winds
expected through the remainder of this forecast period. Wind
speeds will generally be less than 12 knots sustained, although
some intermittent gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range will be
possible. Thunderstorms enter the forecast again for mainly far
west central KS, which may affect terminals starting late Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  64  95  70 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  90  65  97  70 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  92  67  97  69 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  90  66  97  70 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  86  63  94  71 /  20   0  20  30
P28  86  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid



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