Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 242013 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Models are in good agreement with moving a weak cold front across
west central and north central Kansas this morning. This surface
boundary will then become stationary across southwest and north
central Kansas by the early afternoon. A warm 850mb thermal ridge
axis was located ahead of this surface boundary at 00z Sunday and
both the NAM and GFS indicated a +1 to +2C 24 hour 850 temperature
change will occur from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday ahead of this
frontal boundary, mainly across south central Kansas. Northwest of
this frontal boundary the 850mb temperatures cool roughly 2 to 3C
from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday. Based on this expected trend and
where this surface boundary will be located late today will favor
highs at or a degree or two warmer than yesterday southeast of this
front. Highs today northwest of this front will be slightly cooler
and generally will be in the lower 90s.

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late day/early
evening near and east of the surface boundary given improving
moisture and afternoon instability. After 00z Monday an upper
level jet will move out of the Rockies and across western Nebraska
which will place west central and north central Kansas near the
right entrance region of the upper level jet by 06z. As the upper
level dynamics improves across northern Kansas early tonight the
850mb winds from the NAM and GFS both suggested a +40kt low level
jet will be developing across western Kansas. Based on where the
nose of the low level jet will be located between 06z and 12z
Monday along with upslope flow across northeast Colorado/northwest
Kansas, location of the +12c to +14c 700mb temperature gradient,
and a 925mb to 850mb thta-e ridge axis across northern Kansas
overnight will continue to favor increasing chances of convection
across north central Kansas during the overnight period as evening
thunderstorms over south central Kansas tapers off.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

An upper level trough will move from Nevada and into the
Intermountain West on Wednesday, then into the Central Plains on
Thursday, and will be slow to exit the Central Plains by Saturday
afternoon. New model runs have this upper system slowing down its
progress and this will allow for thunderstorm chances Tuesday into
Saturday, with the best chances from Tuesday night into Thursday
with a cold front. The storms may linger near to east of Dodge City
on Saturday as the upper wave moves eastward. Severe storm chances
do not look all that favorable with fairly weak upper level wind
fields.

Daytime highs will be warm and in the mid to upper 90s ahead of the
front on Tuesday, then in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, cooling
into the 80s for Thursday and Friday. Highs warm back up to around
90 for the Weekend. Overnight lows around 70 on Monday night and
Tuesday night cool into the 60s into the Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

A stationary front near Dodge City will move northward as a warm front
this evening, leading to a resumption of south winds at the TAF sites at
10 kts. The south winds will persist through Monday with speeds
possibly reaching 12-14 kts by 18z. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  70  96 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  67  98  68  94 /  10  20  30  30
EHA  66  98  67  93 /  10  20  20  40
LBL  68  99  69  95 /  10  20  20  30
HYS  67 100  69  94 /  20  30  30  40
P28  73 100  74  98 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.