Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 130811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AIR MASS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL RESULT IN A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DRAWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING GRADUALLY WITH A LITTLE UNDER 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO NEAR 15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER
MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING, EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 60S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 70F POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK
FOR LOWS BACK UP INTO THE 40S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW LOWER 50S(F)
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

OVERALL, THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST VERSION. HOWEVER, WITH THAT BEING SAID, I DID ADD SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES NORTH OF I-70 SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT NOW
LOOKS AS IF THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THAT AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ANY CASE, ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND NON-SEVERE. THE FRONT
WILL SINK TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL, AND
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY ONCE THAT SHORT WAVE AND FRONT
EXITS THE AREA, UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT OVER THE
ROCKIES MOUNTAINS, WITH A NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE AFFECT IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS
NOT A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH, SO ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS SEEM
WARRANTED. ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE STORMS SHOULD START IN OUR WESTERN ZONES
NEAR COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WORK EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AS THAT TIME NEARS, THE LEVEL OF SEVERITY WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES STAYED THE SAME, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 65F TO 80F
DEGREE RANGE MONDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED-FRI, DROPPING
SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SAT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL IN THE 55F TO 65F RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK AND KDDC OVERNIGHT AS
A LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
10 TO 20KT MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  49  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  68  49  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  72  52  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  70  53  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  65  47  79  57 /   0   0   0  20
P28  67  52  84  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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