Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200440
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1140 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

There isn`t much to say, once the upper high takes over. Upper
high centered near the Ozarks into Oklahoma this afternoon, with
anvil debris from last night`s MCS in Nebraska trapped in the
anticyclonic circulation aloft. Between the dissipating cirrus,
a lack of a good downslope component, and continued green
vegetation/transpiration and high dewpoints, most locales will
fall short of 100 again this afternoon.

Wednesday...No change in the pattern means no change in the
weather. Hot and dry. Models warm 850 mb temps on average another
2 degrees on Wednesday, and with a decent SWly surface wind
component gusting near 30 mph, more locations will crack the 100
degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Strong high pressure aloft will deliver three very hot afternoons
Thursday, Friday and Saturday. MEX/GFS guidance still looks a bit
too hot, but nonetheless, widespread triple digit heat is
anticipated across SW KS as 850 mb temperatures max out around
30C. Next several shifts will need to determine the need for a
heat advisory during these afternoons, to match our WFO neighbors
to our east and north. The apparent temperature (heat index) grids
currently indicate only the far SE zones will flirt with advisory
criteria (105) for a couple hours Wednesday, followed by about the
eastern 1/2 of the CWA near heat advisory criteria Thursday
afternoon. Since Wednesday is marginal, will defer to later shifts
on a heat advisory for Thursday. Some of our far eastern zones
have a forecasted heat index of 107 in the grids Thursday
afternoon, so a heat advisory is likely.

Widespread subsidence will keep all zones dry on Thursday. Heights
gradually lower on Friday, which may be enough for an isolated
thunderstorm across the northern zones as 12z ECMWF suggests. High
pressure weakens further over the weekend, allowing for a slow
reduction in afternoon temperatures and a gradual upswing in
thunderstorm coverage. Upper high pressure will be repositioned
well west of SW KS starting Saturday, and remain that way through
mid week next week. The return of NW flow aloft ensures there will
be a chance of a thunderstorm in SW KS each day, as indicated by
the CR-init pop grids.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

VFR conditions will prevail with high pressure ridging and a surface
lee trough. Light southeast winds become south to southwesterly at
15-24kt after 15Z. LLWS is forecast through 12-15Z with winds off
the deck around 40kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  74 103 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  71 100  72 102 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  69 101  71 101 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  71 101  71 102 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  73 101  75 103 /   0   0   0  10
P28  74 100  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Kruse


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