Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170806
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
306 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

A cold front is moving though our area this morning. Winds
will be turning northeast and increasing to the 15 to 20 knot range
through around 1 pm. Based on the HRRR, the wind magnitude should be
weakening significantly in the early afternoon across most of the
area except for the far southeast counties (Comanche/Barber/Pratt)
where it may stay breezy/marginally windy through the day.

The northerly winds, absence of downslope and weak cold advection
will bring a respite to the very warm temperatures experienced
yesterday. Models and MOS are in reasonable agreement clustered
around the lower 70s for most of the area, possible only as warm
as the upper 60s around Hays and Wakeeney.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

A couple of target possibilities for chances of precipitation exist
in the extended. The first is following the next frontal boundary
late Tuesday. Chances are only slight and amounts if any will be
rather insignificant given the overall lack of moisture. Strong
cold advection and cloudiness will bring highs back down to the
neighborhood of normal on Tuesday. Additional precipitation
chances follow then immediately into the late Wednesday and
Thursday timeframe as a more significant forcing mechanism/transient
shortwave is modeled moving through the central High Plains by
both the ECMWF and GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

A cold front entering through northwest Kansas will bring a brief
period of moderate gusty northerly winds between 10z and late
morning. The HRRR models shows the post frontal zone and gradient
through the area by early afternoon, with winds slacking off to
light northeast for the remainder of the TAF period. The
atmospheric profile remains very dry and VFR conditions are
forecast

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Fire weather risk should gain become elevated by Saturday afternoon,
especially across the western half of the area as relative humidity
falls in the 20 percent range, with winds 15 mph and gusting higher.
Sunday looks much more conducive to red flag conditions as the
temperature soars on strong dry/warm advection and downslope with
temperatures reaching the 90s, perhaps even the mid or upper 90s
as MOS and some bias corrected model solutions suggest.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  38  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  38  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  72  41  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  38  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  68  36  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  73  41  73  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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