Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

477
FXUS63 KDDC 200721
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
221 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Cold front now dropping though south central Kansas which was the
focus for surface based convection earlier. Determining the extent
of leftover mid level stratiform clouds will be on issue early this
morning, as well as any showers across the northern counties
associated with the elevated front. Going through the early morning
we might see a few showers from near Scott City to Wakeeney, if any
at all. A relatively cool day will follow the post frontal pattern,
with models and  MOS varying between the upper 40s and 50s for a max
temperatures range, despite full insolation.  The day will remain
dry with the next chance for precipitation not coming until very
late in the second period at best (early Friday morning).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

By Friday, southwest and central Kansas will still be in the cool
sector of a developing synoptic scale storm pattern. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show our area of KS in the cold conveyor belt region with
potential for severe storms in the southern Plains. The pattern
would suggest an initial round of scattered thunderstorms early in
the event followed by rain with only isolated convection heading
though late in the day Friday. Models are in the neighborhood of an
inch of more precipitation for the event on average.

Saturday night and Sunday morning may be cold enough for frost
development especially in the western counties. The remainder of
the period will bring dry weather with a warming trend. Elevated
fire weather conditions will likely return by early next week.
Models develop the next precipitation chances around day 7
(Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The area will be situated just behind a southward advancing cold
front today. Resulting northeasterly winds will dominate the area,
gusty at first tonight but weakening as the pressure gradient
slackens and the lapse rates lower. Showers now over northwest KS
are associated with the elevated cold front, and probably won`t
affect the entire area south to DDC and GCK. Cloud are VFR flight
category and VFR conditions are expected through the night into
Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  47  53  40 /   0  50  70  50
GCK  69  47  51  39 /   0  40  70  50
EHA  70  46  54  39 /   0  40  60  20
LBL  72  48  53  40 /   0  50  70  30
HYS  68  47  53  41 /   0  10  80  70
P28  71  50  55  43 /  10  50  70  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.