Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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311
FXUS63 KDDC 301958
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
258 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A strong upper low pressure system continues to spin its wheels
over the Ohio Valley today while a strong upper level moves into
the Pacific Northwest. In between these systems, an upper level
ridge was gradually weakening today. Through the next 24 hours or
so, fairly weak flow aloft will be in place over the central High
Plains. Weak disturbances over the central Rockies are progged to
move out over western Kansas this evening into Saturday. The
models continue to suggest some light precipitation over far
southwest Kansas later tonight but think that moisture levels are
sufficiently lacking such that any precipitation later tonight
should be in the form of virga. Saturday should see high
temperatures very similar to today`s highs...ranging from the mid
70s in central Kansas to the lower 80s along the Colorado border.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Weak upper level ridging will continue in place across the central
High Plains Saturday night. Moisture levels increase a little
especially toward central Kansas and increasing low level warm
advection could help generate isolated to widely scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms.

Potential for strong to severe storms continues to be centered
around Tuesday as the Pacific Northwest system digs into the
Intermountain West late in the weekend and then lifts to the east
northeast across northern Colorado and Wyoming early next week.
The GFS and ECMWF continue to struggle somewhat with run to run
consistency so details are still a little unclear. Showers and
thunderstorms could be developing across the central High Plains
as early as Monday night. At any rate, it appears the best chance
for severe storms will likely be centered generally east of
Highway 283 and likely more toward the Highway 281 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A generally dry airmass over western Kansas will result in VFR conditions
through the period. Southerly winds will gust to around 15-20 knots
at times this afternoon at Garden City and Dodge City but will decrease
toward the end of the day. Increasing mid level moisture and elevated
instability could bring some widely scattered showers to southwest Kansas
late tonight into Saturday morning. Expected coverage will preclude
mentioning any SHRA in the TAFs at this time.

The models show another shortwave moving out of the central Rockies
across the Plains around Wednesday or Thursday but there is a lot
of uncertainty to the timing and intensity of this wave. Will keep
the slight chance for precipitation on Wednesday that the Superblend
generates but this will likely be subject to change. The remainder
of the week should be dry as upper level ridging builds back over
the central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  79  55  82 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  52  80  54  83 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  52  81  54  84 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  54  82  55  85 /  10  10  10   0
HYS  51  76  54  79 /   0  10  20  10
P28  53  77  56  80 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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