Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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224
FXUS63 KDDC 140941
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
341 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

A mid level shortwave will be moving southeast across Colorado this
morning, as surface high pressure intensifies across the central and
southern High Plains. The GFS and NAM have been showing a broken
lower tropospheric frontogenetic zone nw to se across se Colorado
into sw Kansas. This may produce light precipitation showers across
our far south western counties, in the form of snow or a snow/rain
mix. The RAP/HRRR solutions appears more dry near the surface than
the other models, favoring flurries/sprinkles at best. With such
expansive cloudiness across the area, temperatures may struggle to
fall to the freezing point, remaining in the low 30s most areas.
Temperatures will respond well to insolation despite the cloud
cover, as the GFS MOS jumps 10 degrees by noon, however, respectable
850 mb cold temperature advection becomes established areas-wide in
the early afternoon, limiting temperatures to the low to mid 40s
across all of central and sw Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

The upper trough will shift to the deep southern plains on Friday,
bringing back a quick return to southwest flow across our area.
Surface winds will probably be in the 10 to 15 mph range, adding
gusts in the afternoon, however not strong enough downslope or warm
enough source air to warm highs any higher than the 50s. Guidance is
marginally warmer on Saturday before the next cold front shifts
through the area, knocking highs back down into the 40s for Sunday,
and close to climate normals with lows expected in the 20s. The
remainder of the week continues to bring the dry pattern with highs
generally in the 50 and low in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Broad high surface pressure will continue to slowly overtake the
High Plains region with source area over the Central Rockies. Light
northwest winds though the night will increase to around 12-15 mph
late morning and gust to the low 20s in the afternoon. Clouds are
not expected to directly impact aviation, although the NAM/GFS
model have probably overdone a forecast of light snow in the
extreme southwest area west of LBL. Ceiling forecasts from the
HRRR model indicate nothing lower than 5,000 ft in those areas.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Sufficiently warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday will lend to
lowered minimum afternoon relative humidities with breezy
afternoon, and elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  21  56  28 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  45  20  56  25 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  43  22  58  28 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  45  20  57  26 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  45  22  56  28 /  20   0   0   0
P28  50  24  55  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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