Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 142305
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
...Updated for the aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
The vigorous upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest will dig
into the Central Plains Saturday and progress into the Mississippi
Valley Sunday. Pressures already were falling early this afternoon
in the lee of the Rockies from Montana into Colorado. Winds will
continue to diminish this afternoon under surface high pressure
centered in west central Kansas but will return to the south by
evening. Skies will be mostly clear for much of the night, but mid
and high level cloudiness will increase by Saturday morning as the
upper level trough digs into Colorado. Temperatures will fall into
the 30s tonight with south winds increasing to around 10 knots this
The upper level cyclone in southern Arizona will continue to
progress east into West Texas Saturday morning, and widespread
thunderstorms are likely to develop as low level moisture continues
to flow north into Texas and Oklahoma in advance of the trough.
Upward vertical motion with this trough should remain south of
Southwest Kansas, although low level moisture will increase in south
central Kansas by Saturday afternoon as cyclogenesis occurs in Texas
and a surface low pressure trough extends north into Kansas in
advance of the northern branch upper level trough.
Mid and high level cloudiness will be sufficient to restrict
insolation and reduce temperatures a few degrees Saturday,
especially near the Colorado border. A cold front will progress into
west central Kansas by late morning and should move through P28 by
late afternoon. Temperatures will begin to fall behind the front,
and north winds will increase to 20-25kts. H8 winds will push 40
knots by evening, and surface winds may reach advisory criteria late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. There was quite a bit of
localized blowing dust with the high wind event Tuesday, and there
may be some localized areas of blowing dust Saturday afternoon and
evening near fields with limited surface cover even though the wind
will not be nearly as strong as it was Tuesday. There will some
very marginal mid level instability as the upper level cold pool
approaches Saturday afternoon, and a lightning stroke is possible in
south central Kansas where dewpoints will rise into the lower 40s
ahead of the cold front. Virga with little precipitation at the
surface is likely elsewhere given very dry air below about H7.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
Light rain will be on the wane Saturday night. The atmospheric column
may become cold enough for a light wintry mix, however, QPF and the
cooling does not appear to be collocated. Will use the top down approach
in the grids, but confidence is low and amounts won`t be significant
at all. Winds in the wake of the cyclone will be on the breezy side.
Doesn`t look like a slam dunk wind advisory at this time. Sunday will
be cooler in the wake of the synoptic system to the southeast. Nothing
too cold, but below climo - 40s/50sF.
The temperatures roller coaster continues Monday. Monday looks to be
very warm (relative to climo) with widespread 70sF. Warm air advection,
downslope flow, and warm 850 hPa temperatures/mixing will result in
a nice day. Along with the warm temperatures comes the concern for another
active fire wx day. See discussion below for specifics.
Tuesday and beyond:
Another wave/front moves across the region Tuesday. Forecast soundings
are pretty dry and all the dynamics and lift look be located further
north. The EC is conservative with QPF and so is the GFS. Not that impressed
overall with precipitation potential. Highs will be cooler in the wake
of the front with 50s/60sF.
High pressure builds across the region mid to late next week. The net
result is moderating temperatures and a precipitation free forecast.
Another fairly warm day is possible next Thursday as downslope flow
develops. Quasi-zonal flow is expected for the rest of the period.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
As high pressure slowly sinks into western Kansas, winds will be
light and variable for much of tonight. Then, a lee side trough
should form in far western Kansas early on Saturday, resulting in a
shift to the south to southwest. As the trough strengthens, winds
by noon on Saturday will blow from the south at 15g25kts, and some
mid level moi suture will bring in broken cigs in the 100 to 140
thousand foot range.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 62 34 48 / 0 20 20 0
GCK 35 60 31 52 / 0 20 10 0
EHA 38 61 31 55 / 0 20 20 0
LBL 35 63 31 53 / 0 20 20 0
HYS 35 64 32 49 / 0 10 20 0
P28 38 68 37 49 / 0 30 30 0