Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 110849
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

Upper level ridging will persist across the central plains
through the period. The outflow boundary that stretched across
southwestern Kansas Thursday was losing identity this morning and
the associated low level moist axis was being shunted back to the
east into central Kansas. A thunderstorm cluster progressing
across central and southern Nebraska this morning along the
southern extremity of the mid level westerlies was pushing an
outflow boundary toward northwestern Kansas. With persistent
surface troughing across the central high plains, all of
southwestern Kansas will be in the warm sector today since the
outflow boundary is expected to stall out across far northwestern
Kansas. Given the strong mixing, the marginal low level moisture
will become diluted in the vertical, resulting in negligible
surface based CAPE. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected
through tonight. Given the surface troughing, winds will be from
the south, with the highest speeds during the strongly mixed
afternoon. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper
90s, which is a little cooler than the NAM 2m temperatures
suggest. The NAM continues to struggle this summer and has been
too warm with high temperatures. Temperatures tonight will be held
up by breezy south winds, with lows mainly between 70 and 73F.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Friday Night/Saturday:

Went ahead and removed >14 pops and resultant weather for Friday Night.
The global models, as well as convective allowing models show any storms
remaining across Colorado and possibly into northwest Kansas. SW Kansas
will be capped off and firmly in the warm sector, so not expecting
thunderstorms at this time. Lows will be warm and in the 70s.

Kept the highest pops for Saturday afternoon and evening across the
northwest zones in association to closer proximity to the front. There
is a trend that the models are backing off on the convective signal,
so this may have to be cut back in future forecasts. Otherwise, a hot
day is expected with max values in the 95-101F range. Another mild night
with 70s for lows is expected heading into Sunday morning.

Sunday and beyond:

Will have to watch out for upslope/post-frontal convection Sunday across
the western zones, which the EC has been consistently showing. Maximum
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler and in the mid 90s.

The most significant item of interest is another fairly strong cold
front that moves across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Thunderstorms
will be possible along the front and then possibly later in a post-
frontal upslope flow regime. The airmass behind this front is quite
impressive for July standards (the 12Z EC solution). 850-hPa temperatures
in the lower teens C is quite the anomaly for this time of year. This
translates to surface temperatures in the 70s for highs and 50s! for
lows, which is from the raw EC output and matches pretty well with ECE
guidance. FWIW, the record low for the 16th for Dodge City is 51F.
I do have some 50s in there now for the middle portion of next week,
but don`t want to jump on the near record approaching outlier just yet.
Regardless, it will be wonderful next week temperatures-wise, with
widespread 70s rather than your typical 90s.

Allblend pops and temps were pretty much left alone since it looks
very reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

Wet ground and cool outflow from previous rains has resulted in
MVFR CIGS at KHYS and this should persist through 13z until daytime
heating resumes. Otherwise, surface troughing in the lee of the
Rockies will result in south winds that will be strongest (20-22 kts)
during daytime heating on Friday at the TAF sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  71  96  70 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  98  70  96  70 /   0   0  20  20
EHA  98  70  96  72 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  97  71  97  73 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  98  72  95  69 /   0   0  20  30
P28  96  73  96  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Finch






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