Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 112153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
253 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of dense high clouds will persist along and
south of the Mogollon Rim today. High pressure will lead to above
normal daytime temperatures, relatively light winds and very dry
conditions through much of this week.


.DISCUSSION...The high pressure ridge/blocking pattern will
continue to dominate northern Arizona weather for the foreseeable
future. Numerical models don`t handle blocking patterns well and
tend to break the pattern down too early with little consistency
between model runs. We have to wait and watch for signs of the
pattern breaking up to get real change in the long range forecast.

With that said, expect above normal temperatures, light winds and
mostly sunny skies over the next week with periods of high clouds
every two to three days moving through the area. A short-wave
trough brushing by to the northeast Saturday will bring some
northwesterly winds at 10 to 20 mph Saturday afternoon into the


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions through 00z
Wednesday. BKN-OVC cirrus deck south of I-40 through 06z Tues then
decreasing clouds. Sfc winds variable at less than 10 kts for most
locations. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Little change in the day to day weather through
Wednesday. Max temperatures will be 8 to 15 degrees above normal. A
stable airmass and very light east to northeast mixing layer winds
combine to produce poor or marginal ventilation around the clock.

Thursday through Saturday...Well above normal max temperatures and
very dry conditions persist through the period.winds Wednesday and
Thursday, becoming variable or westerly Friday.






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