Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270431
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE WINDS ON TUESDAY.
COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST EVENING AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION /253 PM MST/...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...A LONGWAVE
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NAEFS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY DATA INDICATES THE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME A YEAR. AS A RESULT...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL DECREASE A BIT...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...700 MB GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH MODEL SPREAD REMAINS CONCERNING THE
PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...MODELS HAVE TENDED TO DELAY THIS SYSTEMS
ARRIVAL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS PREDICT A SOONER ARRIVAL THAN THE ECMWF. I HAVE REDUCED
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
TUESDAYS AND WEDNESDAYS POP FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED. AT THIS
POINT...GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY...CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SEEM WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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