Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220415
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 PM MST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
TOMORROW BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE LOW WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TRENDING FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...A LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE WEST COAST OF THE USA AND BAJA WILL
ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTER WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN USA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A MINOR WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH LOW POPS. A STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER POPS.
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A PRESCOTT
TO KAYENTA LINE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LAST WAVE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CENTERED AHEAD AND WITH EACH WAVE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BY TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
BY  THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY
MORNING. AREAL COVERAGE OF CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES WHERE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MAS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...DL


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