Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 162157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
257 PM MST Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist through Friday, with a chance
of storms gradually returning late in the weekend and early next
week as monsoon moisture returns.


.DISCUSSION...A mid and upper level trough west of the state is
continuing to produce dry southwest flow over northern Arizona.
Dewpoints remain in the 20s and 30s for most locations. Colder
mid-level temperatures over UT/NV helping to kick off some shower
and thunderstorm activity as far south as Cedar City, but expect
these showers to remain north of the AZ state line. Another cool
night is on tap with mid 30s to mid 40s in the higher elevations.

Thursday through Saturday, weak low pressure is forecast to set up
near the Southern California coast with high pressure east of the
state. Mostly dry conditions are forecast, though enough moisture
may return by Fri/Sat for a low chance of storms near the White

Sunday through Tuesday, the low near the west coast is forecast to
strengthen slightly, increasing the southerly flow over northern
Arizona. This is expected to pull moisture northward and increase
the chance of showers and thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue for
the 24 hour TAF period. Expect light southwesterly breezes during
the afternoon hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A break in monsoon storms will continue Thursday and
Friday. Expect lower than usual humidity for this time of year,
along with light southwest winds and near normal temperatures.

Saturday through Monday...Limited moisture return Saturday may bring
a slight chance of thunderstorms near the White Mountains. Moisture
is forecast to spread farther north and west by Sunday and Monday
with thunderstorm chances returning to most of northern Arizona.






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