Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
944 PM MST Fri Oct 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will lead to warm and dry conditions
through Saturday. A strong low pressure system moving onto the West
Coast early next week will draw increasing moisture into Arizona. A
few showers may start on Sunday, but chances for rainfall peak on
Monday. Expect clearing from west to east on Tuesday with a return
to dry weather.

.DISCUSSION...It is clear across Arizona this evening. It was 4-8
degrees (F) warmer at 900 PM MST this evening than 24 hours ago and
the wind was 5 MPH or less. Current forecast is in good shape.


.PREV DISCUSSION /332 PM MST/... Models continue to predict warm dry
conditions through the next few days as high pressure dominates the
region. Shortwave energy will move through the ridge Sunday and
monday providing a source of instability as moisture begins to move
up from the Pacific and Gulf of California. Some showers will be
possible sunday...but the bulk of the precipitation is expected to
occur on Monday.
Various model solutions continue to differ on amounts and
locations of highest precipitation, however confidence is building
that some locations could see precipitation totals great than half
an inch of liquid from this system. The most likely locations for
the heavier amounts at this point looks to be the usual suspects
of higher terrain, especially the Kiabab Plateau and Mogollon Rim.

After the system moves out of the area tuesday dry stable air
associated with the large scale ridge still centered off of West
Texas will dominate the remainder of the long term forecast. Dry
and mild conditions are anticipated through the end of next week.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z forecast...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Southwest winds at 10-20 kts developing by midday
on Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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