Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
948 PM MST Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy southwest winds will continue tonight as a
cold front approaches the state. Winds will increase again
Tuesday morning, especially across Navajo and Apache counties as
the front moves through. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across northeast Arizona Tuesday. A colder and
wetter system should impact the northland Friday and Saturday.


.UPDATE...The cold front is along the AZ/UT border this evening
extending westward north of Las Vegas and eastward to near Grand
Junction this evening. Extensive mid/upper level clouds cover the
state this evening. Dropped the wind advisory for this evening
and issued another advisory for Tuesday (morning/noon) into
Tuesday evening. Updates are already on the street.


.PREV DISCUSSION /359 PM MST/...Southwest wind gust from 40 to 54
mph have been observed this afternoon and the wind advisories
will continue through 7 pm mst. Winds to decrease overnight but
remain S-SW at 10 -20 mph with higher gusts along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. These winds are due to a broad trough of low
pressure across the Great Basin and surface cold front laying west
to east across southern Utah.

On Tuesday , another day of gusty winds is forecast, especially
for the southern halves of Navajo and Apache county. Present
indications are for SW winds of 40-55 mph in these areas, and
likely getting another early start. The cold front will drop
southward into Arizona on Tuesday, and bring a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the 4 corners area.

Wednesday should be a fair weather day with much less wind.

Thursday through Saturday- Operational models are in very good
agreement showing a colder trough developing over the Great Basin
and then moving over northern AZ. Look for increasing wind speeds
Thursday. The surface front should be dropping southward into our
area on Friday, the cold pool aloft with -25c temps at H5
overhead on Saturday. Precipitation chances start Thursday night
across the 4 corners and then expand westward to the Mogollon Rim
Friday. Moisture thins out Friday night but the cold pool
overhead Saturday should generate some convective showers along
and northeast of the Mogollon Rim. High and low temperatures will
be well below normal, with low 20s probable for the colder
location in the mountains Saturday morning. Sunday is a rebound
back to warmer and dry.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions under increasing
cloudiness tonight. Southwest at 15-25 KT at higher elevation
locations overnight. Winds will increase again mid to late
morning Tuesday...becoming 15 to 25 KTS with gusts to 40KTS in
some locations. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Strong winds will continue tonight across the
high country with gusty winds remaining overnight at most locations.
Breezy west winds increase in speed again Tuesday but minimum
humidities are forecast to remain above critical values and there
will be a chance for showers in northeast Arizona Tuesday and

Thursday through Saturday...Unsettled conditions with breezy west
winds each day. Daytime humidity forecast to remain above critical
thresholds in most areas. Slight chance of showers in northeast AZ
Wednesday night. Increasing chance of showers and cooler on Friday
and Saturday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MST
 Tuesday FOR AZZ004>012-015- 018-037>040.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ013-014-016-




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