Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 100312
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
812 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO EVENING UPDATES TO FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /255 PM MST/... AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMINISCENT OF RECENT PAST WINTERS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK AS
A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A
DEEP...COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN FACT...MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WILL EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR FEBRUARY THIS WEEK...EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES
OVER ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
MAY BE BROKEN.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A SUBTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE WESTERN US RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS INDICATE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME FRAME. TOO EARLY TO
TALK DETAILS AS FAR AS TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNTS THOUGH
THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ORIGINATING FROM A SUBTROPICAL SOURCE AND
WE COULD EVEN SEE RAIN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/TAYLOR
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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