Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 170401
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 5500 FEET. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THREE PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PRODUCING UNSETTLED
WINTERY WEATHER WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY MAINLY BASED ON ELEVATION AND MESOSCALE
(SMALL SCALE) SNOW BAND FORMATION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AND END ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING INTO COCONINO AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES BY AROUND 2 AM MST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED
FROM 5500 FEET AND ABOVE WITH SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS FROM FLAGSTAFF
WESTWARD. THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES
ABOVE 5500 FEET AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE
MOUNTAINS...BLACK MESA...AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE STARING IN THE WEST
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN IN THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL
SNOWFALL TOTALS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES WITH 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...BLACK MESA...AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY.

MIXED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE FOUR CORNERS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 5K FT
OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO 6K FEET IN THE WHITE MTNS. SHOWERS
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-008-015.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZZ016-017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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