Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 120359
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD AND
ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. STARTING SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR IS LOCATED OVER YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO
COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED AND WEAK CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE LOCATED TODAY. AT 845 PM...WEAKENING CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
OVER PORTIONS OF GILA...NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO
COULD MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR APACHE COUNTY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(300 PM MST)...

PROGS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE DRIER AIR OUT WEST AND SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN ITS POSITION FOR SATURDAY. THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON STORMS GOING ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.

ON SUNDAY...THE HIGH CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA. WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST. STORMS FORMING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE VERDE VALLEY AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STANDARD MONSOON CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EAST OF A
KOV7-KFLG-KPAN LINE THROUGH 06Z-09Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 KTS
AND BRIEF MVFR WITH +RA POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SAT MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER 18Z SAT...MAINLY EAST OF A
KPAN-KINW-K0V7 LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST
OF A WINDOW ROCK TO FLAGSTAFF LINE WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. WEST OF THIS LINE...AFTERNOON RH WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
DRYING TREND. BY SUNDAY...MOISTURE AGAIN PUSHES NORTHWARD AND A
MODERATE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN RESUMES AREA-WIDE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A
MODERATE GRADE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/DL
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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