Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231648

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
948 AM MST Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm conditions this week. Windy
conditions will return to the region Wednesday through Friday or


.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditons, along with breezy northwest
to northeast winds are forecast for today. The current forecast
handles this well, and no updates are anticipated this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...A high amplitude ridge will move
over the area today and Wednesday, before being suppressed by a
long-wave trough over the Great Basin later this week and into
the weekend. The ridge then rebounds late next weekend and into
early next week.

We expect warm and dry conditons today and Wednesday, although
southwest winds will begin to increase Wednesday as low pressure
forms in the northeastern Great Basin. Windy conditions will
persist Thursday, Friday and Saturday, due to this trough. Dry
conditions will also continue, with several degrees of cooling
each day.

Winds will decrease by Sunday and into next week, with warming
temperatures and a continued dry airmass.

Fire weather concerns develop as early as tomorrow, but Thursday
looks to have the most potent combination of winds and dry surface
conditons. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this period.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will continue
today. N to NE winds 5 to 15 kts, shifting to N to NW after 21Z.
Gusts near 25 kts east of KINW. Winds becoming light and variable
after sunset. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A dry and warm weather pattern will continue through
Wednesday. West-southwest winds begin to increase Wednesday
afternoon when local areas of critical fire weather conditions are

Thursday through Saturday...Wind speeds increase Thursday and Friday
while dry conditions continue. Temperatures will trend lower during
this period than early this week. A Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for strong wind and low humidity for portions of north
central and eastern Arizona Thursday, and critical conditions will
be possible again Friday.


Thursday morning through Thursday evening for




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