Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 110402

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
900 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system passing to our
north will bring an increase in clouds and a slight chance of
showers to far northern Arizona tonight and Sunday. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures through
Wednesday. The potential for a pattern change to wet and colder
weather may arrive Thursday.



Made changes to tonights sky cover and removed shower chances for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The storm track is running from central California eastward through
Salt Lake City tonight. A shortwave feature moving through the Great
Basin and Rockies will bring increasing cloud cover here and perhaps
a few light showers to areas north of I-40 late tonight through
Sunday. Otherwise West to Northwest flow aloft will persist through
Wednesday with more variable mid and high level cloud cover from off
the Pacific. Max temps remaining in the plus 5 to 10 degrees above
normal range.

From Thursday through next Saturday - Confidence is building for a
pattern change as GFS and ECMWF models and ensemble means develop a
long wave trough over the western U.S. At this time, windy and
colder conditions are looking probable, still some sharp qpf storm
total differences between the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS amounts
reaching into the worthwile category. Both agree in starting precip
in western AZ late Thursday and a cold frontal passage and
precip chances across the area next Friday. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z forecast...Primarily VFR conditions
for the next 24 hours.  Areas of MVFR conditions and a slight chance
of showers are expected through 20z Sunday along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. Sfc winds SW-W 10-20kt gusts to 25kt. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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