Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291125
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
425 AM MST FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE WEEKEND...A SECOND WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA CAUSING
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
AND ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.
&&

.DISCUSSION...TWO SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATIONS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ONE
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ARIZONA WITH
THE SECOND CIRCULATION ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR LAKE HAVASU
CITY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AND PROGRESS
WITH THE WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MIXING OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 7000 TO 8000 FEET
AND ABOVE...WITH LIGHT PATCHY ACCUMULATIONS AT TIMES.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF-BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE THE 2ND IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST/AZ AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. AGAIN SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN 7000 TO
8000 FEET. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...UNTIL A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY`S FORECAST IS FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TOWARD
ARIZONA. SHOWERY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN ON FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR OVER
HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST 15-25 KTS FRI AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS THE STATE. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN COOL AND BREEZY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN
FOR SATURDAY WITH COOL, BREEZY, AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT WETTER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH
MONDAY. A PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY BEGINNING
TUESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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