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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 061026
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THE VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SNOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING
MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE SOME STRATUS PATCHES AROUND WINDOW ROCK AND NEAR
THE WHITE MTNS THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE A
SUNNY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND.

THE VERY COLD AIR MASS NOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH ELEVATION AREAS MAY SEE A WARMING TREND STARTING
TUESDAY BUT VALLEY AREAS ACROSS NE ARIZONA WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

SAT-SUNDAY PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW SHOULD
DEVELOP THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND GRAND CANYON AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO VALLEY
FLOORS IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR
SOUTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY BY SUNDAY MORNING. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND AT HIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES
BELOW 5000 FEET...3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET...4 TO 6 INCHES BTWN
5000 AND 8000 FEET AND 6 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP SHOULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND GRAND CANYON ZONES. ADDITIONAL
ZONES MAY BE ADDED AS THE EVENT NEARS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
THIS IS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND EXPECT CLEARING WEATHER INTO
THE KAIBAB PLATEAU BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ELSEWHERE CLEAR AND COLD. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE THERE
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.

MONDAY RIDGING SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A MODERATING PACIFIC AIR MASS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A FEW AREAS OF CIGS WITH BASES
FROM 3500-4500 FT AGL OVER APACHE COUNTY FCST TO DISSIPATE BEFORE
18Z TODAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 5 AM
SUNDAY FOR AZZ004-006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......TEC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF