Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 062257
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
357 PM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD BACK
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MOSTLY
SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY, WITH
SOME DEVELOPMENT ALSO IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST YAVAPAI COUNTY.
THESE AREAS ARE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE DUE TO COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
TO DIMINISH EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUES TUESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST WILL START TO TURN OUR FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH MOISTURE
HANGING ON IN THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT IT WILL BE DRY ENOUGH FOR LITTLE OR NO STORM
ACTIVITY WEST OF A LINE FROM KAYENTA TO PAYSON INCLUDING COCONINO
AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF AS
THE LOW APPROACHES, WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR MID JULY IN
OUR AREA. MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE PUSHING WESTWARD
BY THE WEEKEND, PUSHING MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. RAIN
CHANCES GO UP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN STORMS. ISOLD-SCT
TSRA/-SHRA MAY ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT TSRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 18Z TUESDAY WITH A SLOW DRYING FROM
THE WEST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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