Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260413
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY RAIN UNDER THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GET READY FOR AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
AIR MASS WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY AND STREAMLINE WIND PATTERNS THAT SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NEXT
TWO NIGHTS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE PAST SUNSET INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING
STORMS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AS ALWAYS DURING AN ACTIVE
MONSOON THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS
WITH HOT AND RELATIVELY HUMID WEATHER IN OTHER LOCATIONS. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS.

THERE ARE AT LEAST SEVEN ACTIVE WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
SMOKE FROM THESE ACTIVE FIRES OCCASIONALLY MAY DRIFT OVER NEARBY
TOWNS/CITIES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ACTIVE FIRES IN YOUR AREA GO
TO THE WEB AT INCIWEB.NWCG.GOV AND SELECT THE STATE OF ARIZONA.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN...
KFLG...AND KSEZ. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS...SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST PORTIONS WEST OF KPGA-KINW-KSOW.
TS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z.  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY SFC WNDS TO 35KTS
LIKELY NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN
AVIATION...ML/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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