Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301652
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
952 AM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY AND SHOULD
LEAD TO LESS STORM COVERAGE IN THIS AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...THE KFGZ SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD A VERY MOIST 0.90
INCH PWAT. VIS SATELLITE SHOWERS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS MORNING. AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COUNTER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CAN ALSO BE SEEN MOVING
WESTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY.
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SO FAR. THE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL DELAY MAX HEATING AND STRONGEST
STORMS MAY ONLY BE IN FAR WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD COME
TOGETHER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO FORECAST EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...MONSOON MOISTURE HAS SURGED
NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS NOW IN THE
50S AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING ONE INCH AS
FAR NORTH AS PAGE. WIND STREAMLINES SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE INCREASING STORM COVERAGE
TODAY ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THE MOIST MONSOONAL
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW SHOWING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE MONSOON PLUME EASTWARD TO
THE NEW MEXICO LINE. PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED FOR THE DAYTIME
FOR AREAS WEST OF A PAGE TO PAYSON LINE AND REMOVED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA THIS
MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-KAYENTA LINE. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AFT 18-20Z. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFT 03Z FRI. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/DL
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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