Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
305 AM MST Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect increasingly breezy conditons for the rest of
the week, with a slight chance of showers and a gradual cooling
trend. A return to warm and dry conditions will develop later in
the weekend and into next week.


.DISCUSSION...A pair of weak s/wvs will move through the Great Basin
in the next few days, specifically later today, and then again by
Friday. We expect a gradual cooling trend, along with increasing
southwest winds, as a result. There will also be enough mid-level
moisture and cooling to support a few showers through the end of the
week. By late in the weekend and early next week, models indicate
another high amplitude ridge will build over the area, raising our
temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Local MVFR/IFR conditions due to
smoke probable through 15z. Otherwise VFR conditions through 00z Thu
though cigs developing and lowering to AOA 15kft msl. Wind speeds
generally light. Aft 00Z widely scattered light rain showers
possible west of a KPGA-KPAN line. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...For today and Thursday, a weak disturbance will
bring increasing clouds and a chance of rain showers. Wetting rain
is not expected. Expect limited ventilation conditions again today.
Southwest winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph Thursday afternoon will
produce much improved ventilation.

Friday through Sunday...Expect windy conditions on Friday as a cold
moves through the Great Basin.  Drier and cooler air arrives
Saturday, along with a wind switch to the north or northwest. High
pressure will build aggressively starting Sunday, with a return to
well above normal temperatures and very dry surface conditions.






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