Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 300432

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
932 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend and increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms heading into the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...It was an active afternoon and evening along and
south of the Mogollon Rim. The most impactful weather occurred
over Interstate 17 roughly from Camp Verde southward to Black
Canyon City. Several lines of storms developed there causing
periods of heavy rain, strong winds and hail. At 552 PM MST,
quarter sized hail was reported by a trained weather spotter
approximately one mile north of Cordes Junction. These storms
continued to slowly move southwestward causing heavy rainfall
along Interstate 17. Mud along with several inches of standing
water accumulated along Interstate 17 between 6 pm and 7 pm -
primarily in the vicinity of Cordes Junction. Flood waters on
Interstate 17 were deep enough to cause a few vehicles to get
stuck there.

Currently, radar imagery reveals storms have largely diminished
across northern Arizona. An exception to this is in far southern
Yavapai County. With that said, these storms are expected to push
southwestward into Maricopa County within the next hour or so.

.PREV DISCUSSION /358 PM MST/...This weekend will continue to
see an active monsoon pattern with good chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day. As moisture continues to increase across
the area, the threat for heavy rain and flooding will increase.

A favorable monsoonal pattern continues next week as mid level
high pressure eventually sets up east of Arizona allowing a deep
southerly flow to develop. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue and this may elevate the threat for
flooding as soils begin to saturate. The increased showers/storms
this weekend and next week will keep temperatures slightly below


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect decreasing sky cover and
shower activity overnight tonight. On Saturday...scattered late
morning and afternoon showers and storms are forecast across all
of northern Arizona. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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