Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201041
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER ARIZONA...DESPITE THE UPPER
LOW FROM YESTERDAY MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO. THE AIRMASS BELOW 500MB
REMAINS MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THIS
LAYER WILL KEEP OUR AREA FROM DRYING OUT. EXPECT SHALLOW CONVECTION
AS A RESULT...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT...WITH ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FINALLY...BY
WEDNESDAY...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER...ALONG WITH RISING
HGHTS...HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z.
THEN...WDLY SCT TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MTNS...DECREASING BTWN 01Z-03Z TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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