Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
314 AM MST Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A vigorous weather system will brush Arizona
today. Winds will increase again this morning, especially from
Winslow eastward as a cold front moves across northern Arizona.
Associated with the front there is a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms across northeast Arizona. Generally fair weather
will return for Wednesday and Thursday before colder and wetter
system impacts the northland Friday and Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...A vigorous shortwave trough and associated cold
front will sweep across northern Arizona today. There is a bit more
moisture/instability than expected with this system so there is
a good chance of showers and even isolated thunderstorms for the
area along and east of a Page to Winslow line where the coldest
air aloft and best dynamics for upward motion exists. The Chuska
mountains will see showers much of the day with even snow at the
very highest elevations. In addition, strong winds will be
associated with the frontal passage. The strongest winds will be
from about Winslow east and southeastward where wind gusts
approaching 50 mph will be possible. Another area where isolated
winds gusts in excess of 40 mph are expected is from the Mogollon
Rim southward where funneling around terrain features is likely to
produce localized strong wind gusts. Otherwise, high temperatures
5 to 10 degrees cooler than on Monday under partly to mostly
cloudy skies.

For Wednesday and Thursday...Daytime temperatures will warm a bit
as a milder air mass moves across the state. Breezy afternoon
conditions will continue with winds shifting to a more
northwesterly direction. Another passing shortwave trough will
produce just a slight chance of showers across the four corners
region Wednesday evening.

On Friday and Saturday...The GFS and European model forecasts
continue to show a stronger trough and cold front. High
temperatures are expected to dip from 10 to 20 degrees below
normal with the potential for showers and even some snow in the
mountains. The latest models runs have backed of the precipitation
but much cooler and windy conditions look nearly certain for this
period. Continue to stay tuned as the precipitation potential
comes more into focus.

Fair weather returns for Sunday and early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect extensive cloudiness today
with a chance of showers, especially east of a KPGA-KINW-KSOW line.
Chances for precipitation dwindle after 03Z Wednesday. West winds
will increase mid-to-late morning, becoming 15-25KTS with gusts of
30-40KTS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...West winds will be quite gusty again today but
minimum humidities are not expected to drop below critical values
for a lengthy duration. A chance for showers, especially in
northeast Arizona, will also develop today.

Thursday through Saturday...Unsettled conditions with breezy west
winds each day. Increasing chance of showers and cooler for Friday
and Saturday.



1) Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MST this evening FOR

2) Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ013-014-016-017.




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