Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 252240

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 PM MST Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north
of the Mogollon Rim/Interstate 40 this afternoon will diminish this
evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will shift east
Monday as a drier westerly flow begins tomorrow. Dry conditons
across all the area after Tuesday. A slow and steady cooling trend
will develop for much of this week.


.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
developed along and north of the Mogollon Rim today. We have had
reports of minor street flooding, pea sized hail, and frequent
lightning. This activity is expected to diminish this evening.

A trough of low pressure off the West Coast will move into the
Great Basin on Monday. This will start a dry westerly flow across
Arizona for much of the work week. Storms chances will generally be
south of a Payson-Window Rock line on Monday. On Tuesday, there will
be just a slight chance for storms over the White Mountains.

High temperatures will also be decreasing to near average by late
in the week.


.AVIATION...For the 00z package...High-based -TSRA are forecast to
decrease in coverage through 03-04z before dissipating almost
entirely. Until then...expect the greatest coverage near and NE of a
line from Seligman-Prescott-Payson-Whiteriver. Wind gusts to 35-40kt
possible near storms. Smoke from area wildfires may create localized
MVFR conditions overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorm chances will decrease from Monday into
Tuesday. Expect afternoon wind speeds to increase from Monday into
Tuesday.Wind speeds will approach critical thresholds on Tuesday.
Very warm temperatures and low afternoon humidity will continue,
along with high Haines indices.

Wednesday through Friday...Strong and gusty afternoon winds near
critical thresholds will continue Wednesday. Wind speeds are
forecast to decrease on Thursday and Friday. Slightly above normal
temperatures are forecast, with very low precip and thunder chances.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST
this evening FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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