Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281637

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
937 AM MST SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Decreasing thunderstorm chances are forecast through
mid- week. Monsoon moisture should return to northern Arizona by
Thursday with thunderstorm chances increasing Thursday through the
end of the week.


.DISCUSSION...The low pressure area is centered right over the
Four Corners this morning and is slowly moving east. Have update
forecast to increase POPS and sky clover over the LCR today. We
have received several reports of a cold core funnel in far east
Apache County north of I-40.


.PREV DISCUSSION /331 AM MST/...A well-defined upper low is
currently centered over northern Arizona this morning. The center
of the low is forecast to pivot east through the day. Synoptic
subsidence (per Q-vector analysis) on the back side of the low
should keep convection to a minimum over Coconino, Yavapai, and
Gila counties this afternoon. However, Navajo and Apache counties
north of I-40 are forecast to see scattered to numerous
thunderstorms this afternoon. Weak to marginal instability and
shear parameters should keep any thunderstorms below severe

The aforementioned low is then forecast to slowly meander east
into New Mexico Monday and continue to push east as high pressure
builds into the southwestern US through Wednesday. Synoptic
subsidence should keep convection to a minimum through Wednesday
as a result.

Said high pressure is then forecast to rotate east of Arizona by
Thursday opening up Gulf of California moisture to the state. This
monsoon pattern should continue through the end of the week, with
dry southwesterly flow forecast to develop by Sunday, Sept. 4.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail across
the majority of northern Arizona over the next 24 hours. The best
chances for storms today will be over higher terrain in Navajo and
Apache counties through 02Z Mon. Elsewhere, storms are expected to
be more isolated with chances too low to be included in TAFs.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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