Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 040426

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
926 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather conditions with near average
temperatures through Monday. A strong cold front is forecast to bring
much colder temperatures and some shower activity late Tuesday
into Wednesday of next week.


Gusty northeast winds have developed this evening along and just
downwind of high terrain features. This is in response to a tight
pressure gradient to the northwest of a closed low moving along
the western coast of Mexico. Some relatively minor updates were
made to the forecast to bring wind speeds/gusts more closely in
line with those observed so far, and to keep overnight
temperatures more steady where the winds are occurring. For
instance, Flagstaff has already been observing wind gusts of over
35 mph and gusts near this magnitude may be expected to continue
until around 4-5 am or so.

No updates were made to the forecast beyond Sunday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /343 PM MST/...Arizona remains between low
pressure over northern Mexico and high pressure building in from
over the eastern Pacific. Pressure gradients will remain elevated
keeping breezy northeast winds across the area tonight into Sunday
morning. Some localized areas near mountainous terrain may see
wind gusts tonight in excess of 40 mph, particularly on the
downwind (southwest) sides of the San Francisco Peaks, Mogollon
Rim, and Bradshaw Mountains.

High pressure will continue to build over the area Sunday bringing
seasonable temperatures and decreasing winds. A large scale trough
settles over the western United States Monday and Tuesday of next
week bringing breezy conditions and cooling temperatures. Forecast
models are in pretty good agreement with bringing a cold front
with much colder air into the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday. There will be a slight chance for showers with the
frontal passage, but moisture is limited and models have been
trending drier.

Late next week, the flow becomes more zonal with temperatures
moderating closer to normal.


For the 06z package...VFR conditions will persist across northern
Arizona throughout the next twenty-four hours. NE winds gusting up
to 30-35 kt are forecast along and immediately SW of high terrain
features through 12-15z Sunday. Winds generally less than 10 kt
during the afternoon Sunday. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.






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