Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292232
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
332 PM MST FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AND WET WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY CAUSING GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN AS RAIN, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS LOW
AS 7000 FEET. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING. WITH THAT SAID, CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT CAUSING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GRAND CANYON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. ON SATURDAY, THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG ARIZONA`S WESTERN BORDER.
THIS WILL MAKE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS COCONINO
AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THEN BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. ON
MONDAY, FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WET. AT THIS POINT, THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF PRECIPITATION - ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE A
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY
WETTER. TODAY`S OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM RUNS SUGGEST AROUND 1.0 TO
1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET. THE
LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING AND A QUICK
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMING CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY, AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY CAUSE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS - WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z SAT THEN DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS
TO HIGH ELEVATION SITES OVERNIGHT. AFT 15Z SAT...EXPECT SCT-NMRS
-SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A
KPRC-KPAN-KRQE LINE. EAST OF THIS LINE EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SFC WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON S-SW 10-20KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT TODAYS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH COOL, BREEZY, AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS WETTER.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH
MONDAY. A PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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