Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
445 AM MST Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Today will be windy and mild ahead of an approaching
cold front. Gusty winds will continue Friday as the cold front
moves south through the state. This will bring colder temperatures
to the region with a chance of showers mainly across eastern
Arizona into Saturday. Dry weather with a strong warming trend
starts Sunday and continues through the middle of next week.


.DISCUSSION...A large trough covering the central and western
United States will slowly sag southward today, with a closed low
developing by Friday near the four corners. This closed low will
shift eastward through New Mexico on Saturday with cold northerly
flow over Arizona. For today, some showers have developed over far
northeast Arizona, mainly north of a Kayenta to Window Rock line,
and will continue through the morning. Winds aloft have increased
and many areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim have experienced
gusty winds overnight. By later this afternoon, the strongest
winds are forecast over east central Arizona where a Wind Advisory
has been issued from 10 AM to 7 PM for 40-50 mph gusts. Gusts
elsewhere mainly in the 25 to 35 mph range.

Friday - a cold front will shift southward through the day as the
closed low develops. Moisture appears sufficient ahead of the
front for a band of showers and thunderstorms to affect east
central Arizona including the White Mtns and St Johns areas and
rain chances were increased in this morning`s forecast package in
those areas. North of the front, much drier northwest winds will
develop. These winds could become quite strong by later in the
afternoon and evening mainly in Yavapai County where some gusts
exceeding 40 mph are possible. High temperatures Friday will be
10-15 degrees cooler than today. Saturday - cold northerly flow
will continue through the day with gusty north to northeast
winds. With the low now forecast to be farther east, the best
chance of showers will be limited to Apache County, with only a
slight chance as far west as Flagstaff. Any showers Saturday are
expected to end by evening.

Sunday through the middle of next week - latest models have
trended stronger with the west coast ridging, resulting in a
warmer forecast for Arizona. Expect dry weather with temperatures
returning to normal Sunday, then well above normal Monday through


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Breezy winds continue today
becoming westerly 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts, decreasing aft 03Z.
The strongest winds are expected east of KFLG. A few -shra will be
possible near the four corners region today. Aviation discussion not
updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Mostly dry and breezy weather will continue today.
Lower elevations of eastern Arizona will approach critical humidity
and wind speed values but these conditions are not expected to be
widespread. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Yavapai County on
Friday when northwest winds increase and combine with a very dry
airmass behind a cold front passage. Eastern Arizona will see
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the frontal zone Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Cool weather behind the front will remain
in the area through the weekend and into early next week with some
showers possible along the ArizonaNew Mexico line on Saturday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this
morning to 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ011>014-017-040.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ108-137.




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