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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 100420
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION REDUCING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WHILE INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NOT AS INTENSE AS TUESDAY. ONE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE YARNELL HILL FIRE SCAR, HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING WAS REPORTED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NAVAJO
COUNTY...AND WESTERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...THIS ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CHC`S OF PRECIP
HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TIME PERIOD.
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE FLAGSTAFF REGION BEFORE 11 AM. WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY THEN DEVELOPED OVER THE YAVAPAI COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...WHITE MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT SO FAR THE STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAVE
BEEN LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DUE MOSTLY TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
DECREASE BY SUNSET WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS SIMILAR ON THURSDAY SO
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
AZ DURING THE DAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AROUND
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A FEW DEGREES.

SUNDAY ONWARD...LONG TERM MODELS PREDICT ANOTHER UPTICK IN MOISTURE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU 08Z OVER CENTRAL
NAVAJO...WESTERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 18Z THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY
POSSIBLE.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. ON
FRIDAY...SOME DRYING IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
WHERE A PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT ON MONDAY.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/JJ
AVIATION.......TC/AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF