Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 270354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
854 PM MST THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms today into Friday. Moisture will linger
through early next week with only slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day. Otherwise, warmer temperatures are in
store starting Friday into next week.


.DISCUSSION...Enough moisture and instability will bring continued
high based clouds, showers and a few thunderstorms to northern
Arizona on Friday. Light winds may become erratic and gusty near
high based showers due to evaporative cooling effects on the
descending air. Otherwise only isolated shower activity lingers
in the forecast over mountain areas this weekend in a warm and
light wind weather pattern.

Monday and Tuesday...Another weak low moves through the southwest
region bringing low chances for a few showers and storms mainly
over mountain regions.

Wednesday and Thursday...A high pressure ridge builds in from the
West. Expect light winds and a strong warm drying trend across
Arizona. Just in time for June.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours with a return of isold to sct high based SHRA and
TSRA mainly from the Mogollon Rim north by Friday afternoon.
Erratic and gusty winds are possible near SHRA/TSRA. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across northern Arizona Friday afternoon and evening. Erratic
and gusty winds possible with any showers or storms.

Sunday through Tuesday...Drier conditions and relatively light
winds are expected into early next week. Critical fire weather
conditions are not expected at this time.






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