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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272334
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
434 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT RAIN AND SNOWFALL HAS
ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT THE
CHANCES TO INCREASE AS A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST.

ON SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA PULLING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
THE LOW ITSELF WILL STILL BE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM JUST BELOW 6000
FEET AROUND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...INCREASING TO AROUND 7OOO TO 8000
FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM.

ON SUNDAY...AS THE LOW APPROACHES ARIZONA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE CONTINUING TO PULL VERY MOIST AIR
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW. SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING SNOW
LEVELS TEMPORARILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE
GOING TO BE HOVERING AROUND 7000 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL RIM...SO
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
FLAGSTAFF AREA.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BAND WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 6000 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE SNOW LEVELS AND
THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE MAJORITY OF
YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE COOLER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING LATE SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF TODAYS MODELS ARE WARMER AND FAVOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID...TRAVEL IN
THE HIGH COUNTY WILL BE CHALLENGING THIS WEEKEND DUE TO ICY
ROADWAYS AND PERIODS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA
TO GET YOUR WINTER TRAVEL KIT REPLENISHED...AND MAKE SURE THE
CAR/TRUCK HAS A FULL TANK OF GAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DWINDLE WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF
SHSN/SHRA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 TO
NEAR THE UT BORDER THRU 06Z SATURDAY...THEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...MTNS OF YAVAPAI AND N GILA COUNTIES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UP
THRU 06Z...THEN BECMG MORE WIDE SPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN SHRA/SHSN.
NIGHTTIME WINDS SW5-15G25KTS DOWN WIND FROM HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES...
DAYTIME SFC WINDS SW15-25G20-40KTS MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTH. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF