Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211041
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
341 AM MST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA...EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FROM ABOUT TUESDAY ONWARD...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A
LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...NOW LOCATED OFF THE
CA COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WITH
THE EVENT LAST WEEK...BUT WE CAN STILL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
EXIST TODAY...BUT THE BEST CHANCES ARE FRIDAY OVER THE COCONINO
AND KAIBAB PLATEAUS OF WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. UP TO AROUND 0.50"
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8500 FEET.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGHEST NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH STATE LINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. AGAIN...IF IT HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE UTAH STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SKY COVER PRIMARILY SCT-BKN 15-20KFT MSL. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN-TUBA CITY-GREER LINE AFT
18Z. SFC WINDS BTWN 17Z-02Z FRI S-SW15-25KT GUSTS TO 30 KT.
FASTEST SPEEDS IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CONDITIONS TO APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVER
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH A HIGHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...AT
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


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