Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191705
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. DAY
TIME HEATING OF THIS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR
DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WE MADE A SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA
MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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