Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 192257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
357 PM MST Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a few lingering showers through this evening,
especially across eastern Arizona. Conditions will clear from west
to east tonight. Drier and windy conditions develop Friday, ahead
of a strong cold front set to drop temperatures 10-15 degrees by
Saturday. Warmer and dry conditions will return again by early
next week.


.DISCUSSION...The weak trough is centered near the Arizona/Utah
border this afternoon and moving east. An area of showers
developed mainly across eastern Arizona today where light rain
fell. Showers will continue to decrease from west to east this
evening with clearing conditions.

Friday will feature drier weather with strengthening southwest
flow ahead of a cold front moving south through the Great Basin.
Winds aloft and sufficient vertical mixing should support gusts
near 45 mph for much of the high country along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. A Wind Advisory has been issued. Winds will decrease
while shifting to the north behind the front late Friday night into

Temperatures will trend cooler Friday with the coolest expected on
Saturday behind the front. Temperatures will rebound quickly
beginning on Sunday. Strong high pressure is still forecast to
build over the western U.S. early next week bringing dry weather
and very warm temperatures.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hrs. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through around 01Z, with the precip threat confined to the AZ/NM
border area 01Z-04Z. S-SW wind 10-15 kts gusts to 25 knot
through 02Z, then winds decreasing to 5-10 kt. Southwest wind
increasing after 18Z Friday, becoming 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt
for most areas. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance will bring clouds and a chance of
rain showers and thunderstorms through this evening, mainly in
eastern Arizona. Southwest winds will increase significantly on
Friday, with gusts to 40 mph possible along/north of the Mogollon
Rim. Min RH values are forecast to remain above 15 percent so
critical fire weather is not anticipated. Cooler and drier
conditions will arrive Saturday, with winds shifting to north-
northwest and decreasing.

Sunday through Tuesday...Building high pressure will lead to above
normal temperatures and low afternoon RH values. Winds are expected
to be from the north to northeast through this period.


Friday FOR AZZ004>007- 009>017-039-040.




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