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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311047
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND WARM
WEATHER AFTER TODAY...LASTING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE
WET CONDITIONS...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY CENTER
OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA. THE MAIN PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS BEEN OVER ARIZONA SINCE THURSDAY HAS FRAGMENTED AND MOVED INTO
NEW MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING WITH THIS LOW OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA...BUT THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
BEEN DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME AND SNOW LEVELS HAVE HARDLY CHANGED AT
ALL IN THE LAST 36 HOURS. A COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER HAS ALLOWED SNOWFALL TO PERSIST AND LIGHT SNOW IS
STILL BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET. ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED IN OUR CWA...WITH CONVECTION AND
WEAK UPSLOPE BEING THE PRIMARY FORCING THROUGH TODAY.

WE HAVE PARED BACK POPS AND QPF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS CWA. A WSW REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOE THE WINDOW ROCK AREA AND THE WHITE MTNS...WE WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE DWINDLING PRECIPITATION RATES IN THESE AREAS AND THE
WSW MAY BE CANCELED EARLY.

AFTER TODAY...A MAJOR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH
THIS RIDGE...ESPECIALLY TO OUR EAST. WE HAVE ADDED FOG THROUGH
SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD END UP BEING A MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LONG-LIVED EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE
LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 4000 FEET. PERIODS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 011 THROUGH 5 PM
SATURDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 8500 FEET FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 017
THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF