Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1028 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will bring unsettled weather to
northern Arizona through Monday. Precipitation chances increase
across the area into tonight, then slowly decrease from west to
east through Monday. Fair weather should return on Tuesday.


.UPDATE...We made some updates to precipitation chance and
precipitation amount forecasts to incorporate observations and the
latest hi-res model data. Model forecasts show temperatures aloft
and snow levels falling back down again in the Flagstaff area late
this evening as the low center moves across northern Sonora, to
our due south, as heights decrease. HRRR forecasts show a plume of
higher precip amounts along/just east of I-17 in the late
afternoon through late evening time frame. Will re-evaluate
chances for accumulating snow this evening in the 6500-7500 foot
range within the next couple of hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION /506 AM MST/...Rain and snow showers continue to
push into northern Arizona from the south as moisture wraps around
a low currently positioned off the coast of northern Baja. This
low is forecast to move eastward through northern Mexico today,
continuing chances for showers across the area. The best chances
for showers are forecast along and south of the Mogollon Rim,
roughly from Flagstaff eastward to the White Mountains. In
addition, some weak instability may combine with forcing from the
low to produce a few thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim

For today, snow levels are expected to range from 6000 to 6500
feet along the Arizona/Utah border, to around 7500 feet near
Flagstaff, and above 8500 feet in the White Mountains. Late
Saturday night, snow levels may briefly drop below 7000 feet in
the Flagstaff area, resulting in some light snow accumulations

On Sunday, precipitation begins to slowly taper off as the low
moves into New Mexico. The best chances for showers will be over
higher terrain from Flagstaff eastward. Snow levels are forecast
to be in the 7000 to 7500 foot range across the majority of
northern Arizona. Mainly slight chances for showers are forecast
on Monday.

Expect clearing skies on Tuesday and near average daytime
temperatures by Wednesday. Longer term model forecasts continue to
predict the return of an active weather pattern as early as
Thursday, with the potential for unsettled weather through next


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect scattered to numerous rain
and mountain snow showers over the next 24 hrs producing areas of
MVFR to IFR conditions. Snow levels will range from around 6000 ft
MSL near the UT border to around 8500 ft MSL in the White Mountains
region. ISOLD TSRA/TSSN possible this afternoon generally from KFLG-
KSOW and south. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
Monday FOR AZZ017.




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