Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 180946
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
246 AM MST Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure remains over the region, bringing
rain/snow showers for the next couple of days. Warmer and drier
weather looks to return by the middle to end of the week, with
unsettled weather potentially making a come back late this
weekend/next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The continuous cut-off low remains centered over
central Arizona this evening, but will gradually wobble westward
throughout today. Prior to the slight shift in the center of this
system, light showers will persist along our eastern border and
along the rim overnight. Most accumulation will be minimal to none,
but we cannot rule out more noticeable snowfall amounts at higher
elevations (generally above 8000`).

Throughout today as the low nudges towards southern
California, a greater plum of moisture will be available to
northern Arizona. As a result, anticipate a fairly active day with
scattered to widespread rain/snow showers. Snow levels will begin
around 6500-7000` through this afternoon, but after 11 AM or so,
expect snow levels to continue to climb to towards 7500-8000`.
With the daytime heating element, impactful snow accumulation at
lower elevations is unlikely, but stronger snow bands will have
the potential to quickly lower snow levels and produce heavy
snowfall. Our forecast is reserving higher accumulation values
(6-12") for the San Francisco Peaks, White Mountains, and portions
of the Kaibab Plateau. With snow levels mostly being on the
higher side today, QPF values are ranging between 0.3-0.75" inches
for many areas above 6000`. Elsewhere could see anywhere between
0.05-0.25" of precipitation. Also taking a look at the HREF most
unstable CAPE guidance, the potential for thunderstorms throughout
the afternoon is also likely. Any stronger storm will be capable
of producing heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds.

Tuesday will be another day of rain/snow showers, but overall less
in coverage than what is expected for today (Monday). The low will
once again wiggle its way back towards central Arizona, keeping
sufficient moisture with it. Snow levels will once again be on
the higher side, so accumulation for snow will be limited to areas
above 7500-8000`.

Wednesday is becoming more promising for the day the low looks to
exit our region. A few isolated showers will probably linger on
the backside of the trough as it progresses through New Mexico
and into the Texas Panhandle. Outside of a few remaining showers,
temperatures will quickly climb 5-10 degrees from what`s expected
at the beginning of the week and winds will generally be light out
of the west-northwest. The warmer, drier and calmer weather will
be a result of a high pressure system building over the region.
This pattern looks to stick around through at least the first half
of the weekend, but unsettled weather may be returning by
Sunday/next week. More details to come...

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 18/06Z through Tuesday 19/06Z...ISO SHRA/SHSN
and periods of MVFR/IFR conditions through 12Z. NE winds 5-15 kts
with gusts up to 30 kts. SCT SHSN/SHRA with ISO TSRA, mainly
after 18Z.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 19/06Z through Thursday 21/06Z...SCT SHRA/SHSN
with ISO TSRA through Tues, becoming more ISO on Weds. Mainly VFR
conditions with brief periods of MVFR/IFR. Mainly light winds
through the outlook period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Low pressure over
Arizona will bring scattered to numerous rain and mountain
snow showers with isolated thunderstorms today and Tuesday.
Wetting precipitation is expected for areas along and adjacent to
the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Cool temperatures continue.
Easterly winds 10 to 20 mph today will decrease and become
westerly by Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Cool temperatures and isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday as the low finally moves eastward.
Dry weather returns Thursday and Friday when daytime temperatures
begin to warm. Southwest to west winds 10-15 mph each day.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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