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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AS MONSOON CIRCULATION RETURNS TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE KFGZ MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 600 MB. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALSO
INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 500 MB. WILL ADJUST TEMPS UP A FEW
FOR TODAY AND POPS UP SOME FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH AND
EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /310 AM MST/...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION WILL IMPORT
DECENT PW VALUES INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL HGHTS WILL
KEEP THE AIRMASS A BIT CAPPY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO AT LEAST STATE THAT THE MONSOON IS
BACK...JUST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z...BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER 03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR STORM ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/PETERSON
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF