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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212150
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
247 PM MST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA. FAIR
AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING BLOWING
DUST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE CHINLE VALLEY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. ON
WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
US CAUSING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASED WINDS...A COOL DOWN...RAIN AND EVEN
SOME SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER
15Z...WINDS STRENGTHEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO
NEAR 45 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A DRY COOL FRONT APPROACHES ARIZONA.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET...SHOULD SEE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL APPROACH ARIZONA WITH INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ105>110-
112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF