Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
206 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a few snow showers across the high country
tonight. A dry and windy day will develop Thursday, as another
cold front approaches. This system will bring light accumulating
snowfall to northwest Arizona Thursday night and across our area
Friday. Dry and warmer weather is on tap from Saturday through
Monday. Another winter system may arrive Tuesday as early as


.DISCUSSION...Short term (tonight through Saturday)

Made very few changes to the short term forecast.

For tonight, an upper level disturbance with mid and high level
moisture will move from west to east across far northern AZ. Area
radars are showing some weak returns this afternoon across
Coconino county and have added a slight chance of flurries there
through mid evening. This disturbance may be able to synch with
the low level moisture plume that has been moving across Navajo
and Apache counties later this evening. This area has better
chance for showery precip overnight with up to an inch of snow
above 8500 feet.

Thursday -
Dry weather is forecast though southwest breezes to
return during the afternoon, in generally SW 15-25 mph with gusts
30-40 mph.

Thursday night - Friday night -
A cold front and upper level trough will be approaching from the
northwest Thursday night, with the cold front crossing the UT AZ
border early Friday morning. This is another deep and cold system,
that will have a bit more moisture and instability associated
with it. We still expect another round of light to locally
moderate snowfall from late Thursday night through Friday evening.
The best locations for this will be from northwestern to central
Arizona, before the storm shears out and lifts to the northeast
Friday night. Progs again show shallow moisture profiles along the
Mogollon Rim Thursday night from Forest Lakes westward, and even
less east of there. The deeper saturation arrives with the cold
frontal passage. Not issuing any winter weather products at this
time as QPF trends in the GFS over the last 24 hours are
decreasing, and this system is taking an overland path southward
through the Great Basin. Clearing from west to east Friday night.

Saturday expect dry weather with mostly clear skies and light
winds. Max temps about 10 degrees below normal.

Long Term (Saturday night through Wednesday)...

A trough will pass through the Four Corners region early Sunday with
a slight chance of showers as it does so. Behind this trough, dry
weather and a return to near normal temperatures will occur by
Monday. However, this will be short-lived as another potent trough
digs along the West Coast and toward the area. While models disagree
on the exact evolution of this system, it looks like another
increased chance of precipitation in the Tuesday-Wednesday time
frame of next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00z package...VFR conditions will prevail today
under increasing mid level clouds. Cigs will remain at or above 6kft
AGL. Winds will be southwest at generally 10-20 kts, weakening after
00z. A few light showers are possible after 00Z, especially along
the New Mexico border before pushing out of the area after 12z.
Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A trough will bring a few showers to the White
Mountains and north along the New Mexico border through this
evening. Otherwise, dry and cool weather will continue into
Thursday. Southwesterly winds will increase Thursday afternoon and
remain breezy Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front. The
cold front will bring another round of rain and accumulating
mountain snow with continued breezy winds before exiting the area
later Friday. Snow will be possible as low as the 4,000 feet.

Saturday through Monday...Showers will end by Saturday with cool
weather through the weekend. Temperatures rebound to near normal
values on Monday.





PUBLIC Short Term...DL
PUBLIC Long Term...TPS

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