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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 041644
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SWITCHING TO NORTHEASTERLY BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH SOME VIRGA AROUND ALSO. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA BRINGING ISOLATED MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AZ...
INCLUDING THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...BLACK MESA...CHUSKA MTNS. CLEARING
SKIES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT. UPDATES SENT EARLIER FOR SKY COVER
TRENDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(248 AM MST)...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THURSDAY PROMOTING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING SYSTEM
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN AZ. THIS WOULD DRIVE A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD STILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY OVERLAND PATH OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION UPWARD DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM UP QUICKLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. EAST OF KPGA-KRQE LINE BKN
CLOUD BASES AOA 12KFT MSL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/DJO
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF