Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
429 AM MST Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Showers will spread from west to east this afternoon
through Thursday morning along a cold front, with rain changing to
snow at the higher elevations by early Thursday morning. Some
thunderstorms are also possible. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast
Friday with another low pressure system possibly affecting the
region Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...Southwest flow will increase today ahead of a trough
moving onto the west coast. Winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35
mph are expected this afternoon. Increasing moisture and
steepening lapse rates over Coconino and Yavapai counties will
lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms by mid to
late afternoon, spreading eastward overnight and into Thursday
morning. A few thunderstorms could produce wind gusts over 45 mph,
especially western Coconino and Yavapai counties. Current
projections are for snow levels to fall to 6000-6500 feet west of
a Page- Flagstaff-Payson line after midnight with some snow
accumulation possible, generally in the 1-3 inch range through
Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, the trough axis will be
over or just east of the area, with cold and somewhat unstable
northwest flow. There will be a good chance of additional showers
and a few thunderstorms, with snow levels in the 6000-7000 ft
range. Most locations will be a bit too warm for much additional
snow accumulation, but a few areas that experience persistent or
heavier showers could see some light accumulation.

The system moves east of the state Thursday night with clearing
conditions continuing through Friday. The next fast-moving system
is forecast to move through the region Saturday and Saturday
night, with the greatest impacts likely remaining north of the
state. Some light precipitation and cooler temperatures will be
possible south to around Flagstaff. Fair weather should return
Sunday, then another system could affect the area early next work
week, but there is significant model spread concerning timing. We
included low precip chances for now until model agreement


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions through
about 19z-21z, then isold -shra/-tsra west of a KFLG-KGCN line
through 22z-24z. MVFR/IFR develop due to cigs and shra/tsra along
and west of of a FLG-KGCN-KPGA line through 03z-05z Thursday. This
line will slowly shift east through night, reaching KSOW-KRQE by 12z
Thursday. Isold -shsn along the western edge of the line expected
aft 06z-08z, mainly above 6500-7000 feet. SW sfc winds
10-20g30kts through much of this forecast period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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