Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211645
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. DRIER AIR ARRIVES
TONIGHT WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE AM HOURS TODAY WAS REMOVED.
LEFT PRECIP CHC`S FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS IS. ONE CAVEAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NO. AZ TODAY...ON
SATELLITE MAY BE 3-4 HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING. THE HRRR RUN MAY BE CATCHING UP ON THIS AND INDICATING
NO SHOWERS FOR THE COCONINO PLATEAU...WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM. LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE CONFINED MORE TO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO
DETERMINE IF WE NEED TO CUT BACK ON PRECIP CHC`S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NO. AZ.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LINGERING MOISTURE MAY STILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. DRIER AIR WILL TRAIL THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL FINALLY
END. RISING HGHTS WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE INDICATED A COOLING TREND AND AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA BTWN 18Z TUE-02Z WEDS EAST OF A KPRC-KGCN LINE WITH
CLOUD BASES AOA 11KFT MSL AND LCL CIGS AT 3KFT AGL ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM. CLEARING SKIES AFT 03Z WEDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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