Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280326
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
826 PM MST MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. STARTING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...BREEZY...COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
CROSSES NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...
PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF CIRRUS ACROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS VERY LIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND
TUESDAY...AND BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. THE RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO
CROSS AZ ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PROGS SHOW A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
NORTHERN AZ ON FRIDAY AND CROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY. EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THIS TIME GUSTS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AND 30-40 MPH RANGE
SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE DONEY PARK AND HOUSE ROCK
VALLEY AREAS SHOULD STAY BREEZY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. NOT SEEING
DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF AND A FEW GFS
ENSEMBLE PROGS ARE PRODUCING AROUND .10 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THROUGH
FLAGSTAFF LOOK GOOD. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST OF THIS
FALL SEASON. EXPECT MUCH LESS SURFACE WIND ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE FORESTS MAY
BRING VERY LOCALIZED SMOKE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...BUT
NO TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED AT THIS TIME. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/DL
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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