Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191653
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR
WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES MORE EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
AND CHINLE VALLEYS. HAVE UPDATED THE WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. I AM NOT SURE THESE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG WILL
BE COMPLETELY ELIMINATED TODAY GIVEN THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER AND
HI RES MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RATHER HIGH...SO
KEEPING IT AROUND BUT SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
BE LOOKING AT TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHORTLY TO DETERMINE IF
THEY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN THE AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
PROLONGED LOW CLOUD AND FOG.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...
FOR TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PLACING ARIZONA UNDER
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS
LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN
GRADUALLY COOL.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND... MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING COLD, WINDY
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING WORTH CHECKING BACK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
SOME AREAS MAY RETREAT OR DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG
FCST TO EXPAND AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING IFR
CONDITIONS. CURRENT AREAS IMPACTED ARE PORTIONS OF THE CHINLE
VALLEY...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY COCONINO/NAVAJO COUNTY BORDER
EAST...TUBA CITY AREA...AND SOUTH AND WEST OF SUPAI AND ROSE WELL
NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FCST TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND INTO MARBLE
CANYON AND GLEN CANYON INTO PAGE. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW STRATUS
AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU THE 24HR TAF
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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