Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300336
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
835 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WILL LEAD TO GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE PROBABLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SEVERAL VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED TODAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ...WITH FLOODING...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH. CONVECTION STILL ONGOING AT 8 PM AND PROGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN THE STORM COVERAGE THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
PROBABLY BE HIGHER ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM.SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND MOVING WEST INTO THE
VALLEYS...WITH REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO TO PERSIST WELL
INTO THE EVENING...DRIVEN BY THE STRONGEST COMPLEXES CURRENTLY
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EXHIBIT ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY
BE SUPPRESSED NORTH OF THE RIM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK
...BRINGING IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/ TSRA TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AFT 17Z TUES...LOOK FOR
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA / TSRA DEVELOPING FIRST ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS. STORM MOTION MONDAY TOWARDS THE
WEST...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL BAK
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...AT/BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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