Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 230334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
834 PM MST Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm conditions this week. Breezy to
windy afternoons will return to the region starting Wednesday.


A couple of tweaks were made to this evenings sky cover otherwise
the short term forecast is in good shape with no updates needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION /319 PM MST/...A high amplitude Pacific ridge
will bring dry northerly flow and warm conditions for most areas
across Northern Arizona. A weak disturbance will move across
eastern Arizona bringing a slight chance of high based
thunderstorms to the White Mountains through this evening. Other
areas will remain dry.

This afternoon through Tuesday the aforementioned ridge will keep
conditions warm and dry with temperatures generally at or 5 to 10
degree above normal. Winds will remain light through this period
becoming gusty from the southwest by Wednesday as a weak
disturbance begins to move into the area. Gusty winds are expected
to continue Thursday and Friday...becoming light again over the
weekend. Temperatures will cool 5-10 degrees by the end of the
week as this disturbance works to break down the ridge pattern.
Expect dry conditions through the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions to continue for
the next 24 hrs. Til 16z Tues sfc winds NE wind 5-15 kt along and
south of the Mogollon Rim, light winds elsewhere. Aft 16z Tues
sfc winds N-NW 10-15kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and warm weather through Wednesday.
Breezy conditions are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Southwesterly winds will gradually
increase Thursday and Friday with relatively cooler temperatures
continuing into the weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are
possible Thursday and Friday.






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