Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032207
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 PM MST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
AND WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ANOTHER DRY PUNCH OF AIR MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK TSTORMS
WERE OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
DIMINISH BY SUNSET. WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL AS SOME PASSING
CIRRUS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. PROGS SHOW INCREASING
THICKNESS VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST MAX TEMPS WERE
BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW DAILY NORMALS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE SURGE FROM
THE SOUTH BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO AND A WEST COAST TROUGH. THUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND MAX TEMPS COOLING TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FOR THE WEEKEND...LATEST PROGS ARE BRINGING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA SHOULD AGAIN PUSH THE MONSOON MOISTURE
BOUNDARY EASTWARD WITH TIME (SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT).
AREAS WEST OF A PAGE TO PAYSON LINE HAVE HAD THERE STORM CHANCES
LOWERED TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AND ARE THEN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY SW SFC WINDS (TO 30 MPH) MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE PAGE TO PAYSON FOR SATURDAY IT LOOKS LIKE
SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE...THEN ONLY ISOLATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT-BKN150 WITH ISOLD
-SHRA/-TSRA TIL 02Z. FEW-SCT150 AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...41
AVIATION...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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