Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 230516

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1016 PM MST MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...After an active period that will last into Tuesday,
expect a gradual decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity
later this week and heading into the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...At the moment, convective activity is diminishing
across northern Arizona. However, an upper level low currently
positioned near the southern tip of Nevada is forecast to swing
eastward across the region later tonight and tomorrow. This low is
responsible for a large line of storms currently pushing into far
northwest Arizona. With that said, most model guidance predicts
this area of storms will weaken as it moves eastward. As a result,
did increase the chances for showers across western Coconino and
northwest Yavapai Counties tonight, with a mention of isolated


.PREV DISCUSSION /345 PM MST/...This upper low will drift
through northern Arizona on Tuesday, with even colder air aloft.
Despite some of the same limiting factors we saw today, a
moderately active day is expected once again.

Drier and more stable conditions develop later this week, but not
quite enough to completely end storm activity.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Through 12Z Tuesday, expect VFR
conditions across most of northern Arizona. The exception looks
to be in far western Coconino County and northwest Yavapai County
where good chances for showers with some embedded thunderstorms
is forecast. With that said, the best shot at MVFR conditions, or
perhaps brief IFR conditions will be a KGCN. After 12Z Tuesday,
showers are forecast to spread eastward, with increasing chances
for thunderstorms beginning after 17Z Tuesday. MVFR/IFR
visibilities and ceilings will be possible under the stronger
storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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