Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 111120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of dense high clouds will persist along and
south of the Mogollon Rim today. High pressure will lead to above
normal daytime temperatures, relatively light winds and very dry
conditions through much of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Current upper-air analysis reveals a high amplitude
ridge positioned over the western United States with a cutoff low
situated near Baja California. This classic "Rex Block" pattern
is forecast to persist through the work week keeping northern
Arizona warm and dry. While periods of dense upper level cloud
cover are likely along and south of the Mogollon Rim today, expect
mostly sunny skies, relatively light winds and well above normal
temperatures through Friday.

The blocking pattern looks to break down during the Friday/Saturday
timeframe allowing for a weak shortwave trough to brush the area
on Saturday. Other than a slight cool down, this system is expected
to have little impact on northern Arizona`s weather.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions over the next 24
hours. SCT-BKN cirrus deck mainly along and south of the Mogollon
Rim through this afternoon, then clearing. Wind 10 kts or less for
most locations. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Little change in day to day weather through
Tuesday with warmer than normal daytime temperatures and very low
humidity. Variable high clouds through this afternoon as a weak
upper low passes south of our state. Stable conditions with very
light east to northeast mixing layer winds, leading to poor or
marginal ventilation.

Wednesday through Friday...Daytime temperatures will be 5-15 degrees
above normal with dry conditions continuing. North to northeast
winds Wednesday and Thursday, becoming variable or westerly Friday.






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