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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 100346
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FAIR AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON TRACK.
ALL-IN-ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH IS THEN
FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH AZ TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW WHICH REMAINS OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS SHOW A CLOSED LOW AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL ON TUESDAY...WITH
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE LOW HEADS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCT HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW AT 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS AFTER
18Z ON MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/JJ/MCS
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF