Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 021228
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
528 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...For today, cloudy conditions with mainly isolated
rain and snow showers are forecast across most northern Arizona.
Any snow accumulations are expected to be below one inch. Very
gusty northeast winds are forecast from Saturday through Sunday
morning. Dry weather is on tap for Sunday and Monday. A strong
cold front is expected to cause another round of showers and much
colder temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday.
.DISCUSSION...For today, a trough is forecast to deepen over the
southwest United States, becoming a closed low across southern
Arizona/northern Mexico by this afternoon and evening. Cold air
accompanying this system will cause a drop in daytime
temperatures, with high temperatures ranging from the low 30`s to
mid 40`s for locations along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
Moisture remains limited with this system and mainly isolated
shower activity is expected throughout the day. Any accumulating
snow will be quite sparse. Locations that experience accumulations
are expected to see less than one inch. Dry conditions and warming
temperatures are forecast for Saturday, except perhaps in the
White Mountains region where lingering, isolated showers are
In terms of winds, flow around the low will cause gusty northeast
winds to develop Friday night through midday Sunday. Night time
wind speeds will remain elevated at locations along and
immediately south of the Mogollon Rim. The strongest of these
winds are expected early Sunday morning, with sustained winds in
the 20 to 30 mph range and localized gusts up to 40 mph possible.
Dry weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures are
forecast for Sunday and Monday.
Models solutions have begun to diverge a bit regarding next week`s
weather. The GFS and ECMWF have been somewhat consistent
developing a deep, cold trough across the western United States.
around the middle of the week. The ECMWF has a cold front moving
from north to south across the region on Tuesday. The GFS has had
the cold air arriving a bit earlier, although the newest GFS run
has the majority of the cold air missing Arizona altogether - Will
assume for the moment that this solution can be heavily
discounted. Generally speaking, expect an abrupt drop in
temperatures and chances for rain and high elevation snow during
the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Warming temperatures and dry
weather are forecast for late next work week.
.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast...VFR conditions are generally
expected across northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. Clouds will
increase and lower through the period. After 18Z...scattered rain
and snow showers will develop over the higher terrain with IFR
condition near the stronger showers. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
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