Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

FXUS65 KFGZ 212219

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
316 PM MST SUN AUG 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain in place with the
potential for shower and thunderstorm activity continuing through
the coming week.


.DISCUSSION...The clouds associated with the distinct MCV/circulation
slowly moving northward across western AZ suppressed the formation
of storms over N AZ today. Without additional forcing
apparent...expect the modest thunderstorm activity currently over N.
AZ to decrease significantly later this evening.

The weak flow and subtle, distributed trough currently over AZ will
be enhanced by a jet moving into S. California - S. Arizona, aiding
in the formation of a weak shortwave which is forecast to pass
across N. Arizona on Tuesday. This upper level jet and developing
wave may bring an enhancement to the convection across the area
Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The operational GFS brings some
drying with the passage of this shortwave...but is distinctly an
outlier in the ensemble with this regard. Most ensemble members show
the persistence of at least low-grade monsoon conditions through the
week, and as such we`ll keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast
until more definitive features become apparent. In a
nutshell...expect minor day-to-day variations in the convective
activity through next week, with storms generally most numerous over
and north of the Mogollon Rim.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will
decrease AFT 02Z...with only ISOLD -SHRA expected overnight. SCT
-TSRA are expected to develop again on Monday aft 18Z...most
numerous over the higher terrain. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.