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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280351 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 PM MST WED NOV 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ARIZONA IN A SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU REGION ON FRIDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK MAY BRING
COLD WINTRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ROUTINE
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST OF OCCASIONAL MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAINS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. BY FRIDAY...THIS LOW WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST
OF LOS ANGELES. THIS LOW WILL SPLIT INTO TWO LOW CENTERS...THE
FIRST LOW WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND LOW
WILL BE LOCATED 500 MILES WEST OF THE COAST. THE FIRST LOW WILL
MOVE EASTWARD POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SECOND LOW WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD AWAY FROM ARIZONA. OTHERWISE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING US IN A SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST REGION ON TUESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A COLD FRONT
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL THEN SWEEP INTO
ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY PRODUCING COLD AND WINDY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER
CHANCES DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE COLD AIR MASS INTO
ARIZONA THEY DIFFER ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE IMPACTS. PLAN
FOR WINTRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AFFECTING TRAVEL ABOVE 6000 FEET
ELEVATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR ROUTINE FORECAST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF