Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 222219

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
319 PM MST Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditions this week.
Breezy to windy conditions will return to the region late in the


.DISCUSSION...A high amplitude Pacific ridge will bring dry northerly
flow and warm conditions for most areas across Northern Arizona.
A weak disturbance will move across eastern Arizona bringing a
slight chance of high based thunderstorms to the White Mountains
through this evening. Other areas will remain dry.

This afternoon through Tuesday the aforementioned ridge will keep
conditions warm and dry with temperatures generally at or 5 to 10
degree above normal. Winds will remain light through this period
becoming gusty from the southwest by Wednesday as a weak
disturbance begins to move into the area. Gusty winds are expected
to continue Thursday and Friday...becoming light again over the
weekend. Temperatures will cool 5-10 degrees by the end of the
week as this disturbance works to break down the ridge pattern.
Expect dry conditions through the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions to continue over
the next 24 hrs. N winds 5-15 kts during the daytime hours for most
TAF sites. KSEZ can expect NE wind 10-20 kt from 04z-16z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and warm weather through Wednesday.
Breezy conditions are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Gusty southwesterly winds will
continue Thursday and Friday with relatively cooler temperatures
continuing into the weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are
possible Thursday and Friday.






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