141
FXUS65 KFGZ 252319
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing daytime highs forecast through the next
several days, along with mostly dry conditions. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible each afternoon, primarily across the White
Mountains, likely to become more widespread across northern Arizona
by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak low pressure system is settled over the state
currently, with a large area of high pressure remaining to our east.
Moisture will continue to funnel into New Mexico and portions of far
eastern Arizona, but otherwise dry conditions look to persist across
our CWA. Through the end of the week, this area of low pressure is
forecast to lift out of the region, allowing pressure heights to
increase. This will result in climbing daytime temperatures and
mostly light southwesterly winds.

Over the weekend and into next week, model guidance suggests high
pressure building across the Southwest, potentially centering over
the Four Corner by the middle of next week. During this pattern
transition, daytime highs are forecast to reach hot to
dangerously hot temperatures, especially for lower elevation
locations. There are no heat related products out at this time,
but there will likely be a Heat Watch/Warning for areas below
4000` at the Grand Canyon later this weekend/into the first half
of next week.

I`m sure you`re more interested in hearing about the potential
for monsoon moisture to return to Arizona, so let`s break down
what we`re seeing. Model guidance is in good agreement that
moisture will increase across our CWA by Tuesday/Wednesday of next
week, and this is reflected by increasing PWAT values. Both the
GFS and ECMWF ensemble members indicate we could see PWAT values
near 1.00" by the middle of next, and the Climate Prediction
Center has all of Arizona shaded for the "Above Normal"
precipitation chances in the 8-14 day outlook. So we are seeing
good signals of Monsoon Season kicking off for us around the first
of July. One item worth noting is there does look to be an area
of low pressure building across the West Coast during this
favorable monsoon pattern. If this disturbance pushes far enough
east, we could see moisture get cut off, but time will tell on
that.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 26/00Z through Friday 27/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Areas CU/TCU over Apache County dissipating by 02Z and
then redeveloping by 18Z-20Z Thursday. ISOLD high-based -SHRA/-TSRA
possible INVOF the White Mtns for the same time frame. Daytime sfc
winds S-SW10-20kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 27/00Z through Sunday 29/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Mainly dry conditions and
seasonal temperatures. A slight chance for high-based showers and
thunderstorms near the White Mountains is possible each afternoon.
Winds SW 10-15 mph with gusts to 20mph each afternoon, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty, erratic winds possible
in and around storms.

Saturday through Monday...Warming trend begins with temperatures
climbing 5-10 degrees above average by the end of the weekend.
Mainly dry with a slight chance for high-based showers and storms
near the White Mountains each afternoon being the exception. Daytime
winds SW-W 5-15 mph each day, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight.  Winds could be gusty and erratic in and around storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff