Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211654
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
954 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST ARIZONA
VALLEYS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES THIS MORNING. MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS...AND ITS
LIMITING IMPACT ON MAXIMUM DAYTIME TEMPS. MAY REDUCE TEMPS A BIT
IN THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST AZ VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO ARIZONA. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT IS
LIKELY TO BE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER ARIZONA WILL BE DUE TO A DEEP LOW OVER THE PLAINS
STATES AND RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 9-12 THOUSAND FOOT MSL LAYER WILL REACH 40-65KT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE
SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS AND THE NORTH SIDE OF FLAGSTAFF. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...AND
THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. KEPT JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. COOLER BUT FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE PRESENT IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AFFECTING KINW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/JJ
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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