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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250403
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
903 PM MST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. BY NEXT
WEEK DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ARRIVE WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO BACK TO THEIR
SEASONAL VALUES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFTED
NORTHWEST THROUGH FLAGSTAFF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WITH
THE BAND EXTENDING FROM BAGDAD...NORTHEAST THROUGH ASHFORK...TO
GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...TO KAYENTA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECT OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS BAND. MORE MOISTURE
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ONTO THE MOGOLLON RIM TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND ACROSS NORTHERN NAVAJO...
AND APACHE COUNTIES.

FORECAST HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT
THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TRENDING DOWNWARD.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /340 PM MST/...RATHER ACTIVE DAY NORTH OF A
WICKENBURG-WINDOW ROCK LINE TODAY. STORMS ARE MOVING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. A FEW STORMS HAVE PRODUCED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. PRESCOTT
REPORTED 1.63 INCHES OF RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM EARLIER IN THE DAY.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY AROUND....WEST
AND NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA TODAY AND HAS LIMITED STORM ACTIVITY. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE
STATE ON SATURDAY WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DRYING IS AGAIN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID-LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
DECENT...BUT INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAK. LOW TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
GRADE MONSOONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS A RESULT. WITH PARTIALLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KSEZ...KFLG...AND KGCN. WDLY
SCT SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG A LINE
FROM BAGDAD TO KAYENTA. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP BY AROUND
17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE COCONINO PLATEAU AND KAIBAB
PLATEAU. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD MVFR VSBY/CIGS.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/MAS
AVIATION.......TC

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